China's impact

[ack]

Yesterday...

My 7 year old son: Daddy, who made the Earth?
Me: God. Along with the rest of the universe.
Son [pointing to all things around us]: So who built all this stuff? China?

 

[amirm]

He is going to be president one day.

 

[JackD201]

I'm not even American and I'd vote for him!

 

[jadis]

My first and only time to visit China was in 1983. I believe they virtually manufactured nothing much of significance except things for their basic needs in those times. Beijing airport was the most lonely airport I had seen, we were the only flight that arrived that night. In between our hour long bus ride to our hotel I saw basically some trees and a few lights. The was absolutely nothing of interest around our hotel. We toured a steel factory in the south and I recall the all the heavy machineries were Made in Japan. By late 80s I heard there was this area called Shenshen where it was experimenting 'capitalism' or 'market economy'. I lost track of what was happening in China in the 90s except to know that Deng Xiao Ping was ailing and then ultimately passed away. Early 2000s, China was into our country buying all the scrap metals that made scrap steel's price zoom from 50 cents to 18 pesos. How many percent is that? By that time most things were made in China, the European branded appliances were made in China. US brands followed. The 2008 Olympics happened and everyone saw China the way China wants the world to see itself - A world player and giant. How it happened is all because of 'heart' - a nation that moved with one heart. They suffered so much during the wars in the last century and plunged deeper at the start of the communist rule. When they decided to put their act together to make Mao's liberation day proclamation that 'China will stand up again' come true, the world simply has to watch. And today, we feel their impact.

 

[mep]

And the Phillipines may feel China's impact more than most. The South China sea may well be a flash point for war to break out.

 

[jadis]

And the Phillipines may feel China's impact more than most. The South China sea may well be a flash point for war to break out.

That's right, mep. There has been some 'tensions' due to a dispute as to who owns the Spratly Island.

 

[JackD201]

Joint exploration is both cheaper and vastly more beneficial to all parties. Now if we could only get the leaders of our respective countries' heads out of their asses. Grrrrrrrrrrrr.

 

[FrantzM]

Hi

This is from Napoleon Bonaprte back in the mid 19th century:

"La Chine est un géant qui sommeille, ne le réveillez pas ou il fera trembler le monde."

"China is a giant in its sleep, don't wake it up or it will shake the World" My lame attempt at translating French to English,

 

[JackD201]

Hi

This is from Napoleon Bonaprte back in the mid 19th century:

"La Chine est un géant qui sommeille, ne le réveillez pas ou il fera trembler le monde."

"China is a giant in its sleep, don't wake it up or it will shake the World" My lame attempt at translating French to English,

One thing is for sure, they aren't asleep anymore.

 

[mep]

One of the funniest things I ever read on a sh*t house wall invoked Napoleon Bonaparte's name. It said, "This is the place where Napoleon pulled his Bonaparte."

As for the Chinese, they are becoming more aggresive and as their militiary capabilities grow with their capacity to understand how to use the weapons and technologies, I predict they will try to bully smaller countries into submission. If they designed the DF-21 to take out our aircraft carriers, they won't have a problem stomping on smaller countries.

 

[FrantzM]

Hi

I wonder what the World thought of the rise of the USA a few years ago, could be the same for what we are thinking of the rise of China. The world is becoming increasingly interwoven. Geopolitics is not what it used to be. Yes one can bully people and nations but for how long in this era of universally accessible knowledge?
Military might is all great and dandy, it will not help you keep educated people under oppression for long. China will have to deal with its own people and believe me that will be a major problem too... Meanwhile the world is changing and they will have more sway , They will also quickly learn that it is better to cooperate than bully nations of people around .. The backlash can be dramatic. The USA have experienced it and China better learn the lessons fast.
Call me an utter optimist, we are forced to move toward an era of mutual understanding henceforth cooperation. Will take long but look around and see how event sin one part of the world affects every nation.. Don't think what's happening in Greece will not affect us in the US and quickly .. Let's hope it doesn't spread to Italy and Spain... For the record Italy is the third European economy... behind Germany (#1) and France (#2) ...

 

[jadis]

Imo, China is not likely to go to war in the near term for a cluster of islands contested by her and other neighbors over some 'rich natural resources' hidden underneath those waters. Their primary goal for the longest time is the 'reunification' of Taiwan to the 'motherland' to which they have always included military force as an option. They have succeeded in getting back Hong Kong and Macau into their fold and in a few decades they can even choose to integrate the HK$ with its Yuan. The thought of adding Taiwan's economy and foreign exchange reserves into that of an already humongous one in China is mind-boggling. By that time, everything will not only be made in China, but possibly, important things (debt, businesses, real estate, etc. of other nations, land) might be owned by China as well.

 

[mep]

Imo, China is not likely to go to war in the near term for a cluster of islands contested by her and other neighbors over some 'rich natural resources' hidden underneath those waters. Their primary goal for the longest time is the 'reunification' of Taiwan to the 'motherland' to which they have always included military force as an option. They have succeeded in getting back Hong Kong and Macau into their fold and in a few decades they can even choose to integrate the HK$ with its Yuan. The thought of adding Taiwan's economy and foreign exchange reserves into that of an already humongous one in China is mind-boggling. By that time, everything will not only be made in China, but possibly, important things (debt, businesses, real estate, etc. of other nations, land) might be owned by China as well.

As China's military capabilities continue to grow, expect more problems. Right now, they are focused on being able to take Taiwan back using force and those plans include denying the U.S. access to the Taiwan Straights. It is going to take China awhile to figure out how to operate an aircraft carrier and how to network their sensors along with command and control. It will happen with time though. However, they can flex their muscles now with Vietnam and the Phillipines if they so choose.

 

[mep]

Not true Tom. China had a diesel submarine surface in the middle of an aircraft carrier battle group just to let us know that we didn't detect them and they could have sunk the carrier.

 

[jadis]

However, I do not see China as an agressor any time soon, even they understand the power of economics to get what you want these days.


Tom

Agreed. And China's opening up to the world started with diplomacy. The so-called 'ping pong' diplomacy started and continued with lots of sports diplomacy to our country where their motto was 'friendship first, competition second'. They could have easily regained Hong Kong and the New Territories just be sending a fraction of their standing army from the mainland and the whole HK islands would have been taken back. But they choose to make another treaty with the Thatcher government that would ensure a status quo situation for another 50 years, peacefully. Their military build up mostly is in anticipation of a belligerent stance by Taiwan on their unification plans. But last I heard, they have eased up even on tourist and business travels between the 2 sides and it's just a matter of time till actual reunification takes place. First it was communism and socialism mixing with capitalism, then, a 'one country two systems' approach (which is now working in HK and Macau) for Taiwan. I call that 'innovation'.

 

[mep]

Mark, you seem to know quite a bit about the military. Then, if I give you a wink, you might know why that submarine was "not noticed" by the carrier battle group, in peacetime, and not on full battle alert status.



Tom

Tom-I don't know about your winking, but whenever a carrier battle group is deployed, there is never a time that the ships in the battle group aren't supposed to be doing their job which is to protect the carrier.
The bottom line is that Chinese submarine went undetected and it was an embarrassment to our Navy. Surfacing a submarine in the middle of an aircraft carrier battle group is a very provacative move.

 

[jadis]

Actually for me, the bigger threat in this region is not China but North Korea. China has big business going for them everywhere and I do feel they are very concerned about public opinion about military adventurism though they had taken a lot of flak on issues concerning human rights. North Korea, I don't think they have much to lose by doing something crazy against the South other than narrowing the balance between the two countries' prosperity level. They have been calling for more talks with the US and the South though one cannot really rationalize their move as what is there really to talk about these days. China is bound to support the North mainly because they are land locked to the North, at least in these moments.The North is still regarded as a 'friend' to China and China wouldn't want any hostiles to be land locked to them either, imo.

 

[JackD201]

I agree and in that light China is playing a big, big role in regional stability. China seems to be the only country NOKOR listens to.

 

[FrantzM]

I agree and in that light China is playing a big, big role in regional stability. China seems to be the only country NOKOR listens to.

Indeed... NOKOR leaders know that if they go against the wishes of Pekin they would have their ass thoroughly whooped while the rest of the world cheers ...

 

[mep]

I'm not so sure about what influence China actually has over NK. The common wisdom is that China can control NK. I think the reality is different. China tolerates NK because NK is a buffer against the U.S. and South Korea. Also, China doesn't want to see NK collapse and then have millions of refugees on their soil. They learned some lessons from Germany uniting and how expensive it was for West Germany to have to absorb East Germany. NK is a rogue nation that should have been stomped on years ago. They have been allowed to get away with murder for many years. They still have our Pueblo ship.