China's impact

China's Impact - In the Navy

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China defends aircraft carrier plans
Reuters
Posted at 07/28/2011 5:50 PM | Updated as of 07/28/2011 5:50 PM

BEIJING, China - China's neighbors are worried its aircraft carrier program may in time intimidate regional rivals but its military on Thursday defended the plan as vital for maritime security.

A day after China confirmed it was refitting an old Soviet vessel, and sources told Reuters it was building two of its own carriers, the official Liberation Army Daily stressed the mix of patriotic glory-seeking and future security worries behind the decision.

China's humiliations at the hands of Western powers in the past centuries "left the Chinese people with the deep pain of having seas they could not defend, helplessly eating the bitter fruit of being beaten for being backward," said a front-page editorial in the paper.

That trend is changing as Beijing ramps up its military spending while Washington discusses cutting its much larger defense budget. Growing Chinese military reach is triggering regional jitters that have fed into longstanding territorial disputes, and could speed up military expansion across Asia.

In the past year, China has had run-ins at sea with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. The incidents -- boat crashes and charges of territorial incursions -- have been minor, but the diplomatic reaction often heated.

"The issue of transparency regarding China's defence policy and its military expansion itself are concerns not only for Japan but for the region and the international community," Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said on Thursday.

In the 2012 budget submitted to Congress this week, the Philippines wants to raise military spending to P8 billion ($190 million) per year from a previous 5 billion.

"(China's military modernization) serves as a clarion call for the Philippines to also upgrade its military capability to patrol its waters," said Rommel Banlaoi, executive director at the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research.

The Chinese carrier programme could fuel the drive for submarines in Southeast Asia, said Rory Medcalf, program director of International Security at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney.

"There is already a submarine race, or submarine capability competition, in the region. This could add to that dynamic but I do not think it will be fundamental driver of it," he said.

Countermeasures

Japan's plan to boost the number of its submarines to 22 from 16, announced last year, was mainly a response to China's naval buildup, said Narushige Michishita, associate professor at Japan's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

"Japan is already taking some countermeasures," he said.

As well as refitting the old Soviet-era carrier bought from Ukraine in 1998, China is building two indigenous aircraft carriers as part of a broad modernisation programme, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

"Putting it in the overall context of China's expanding and modernizing military, there is some cause for concern," said Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group in Seoul.

South Korea disputes territory with China, which is the major backer of the principal threat to security on the Korean peninsula, the North.

Taiwan, the self-ruled island China claims as its own and has never renounced the use of force to recover, will also be watching closely. It warned again last week about Beijing's growing military threat.

"In the previous 60 years, the threat to Taiwan was all from the west," said Alexander Huang, professor of strategic studies at Taipei's Tamkang University. "But with a moving platform, China can pose a threat to Taiwan from the eastern side, which means that Taiwan is threatened from all directions."

Others point to India, China's great rival as an emerging Asian economic and military powerhouse.

"If the Chinese leave the west Pacific, there's only one areas they're interested in, the Indian Ocean. In that sense, competition with (India) is inevitable," said Raja Menon, a former rear admiral in the Indian navy.

China's Liberation Army Daily identified future risks as a rationale for the carrier program, which will take many years to create an operational carrier force.

"The struggle to win maritime interests is increasingly intense," the editorial added. A powerful navy is "an inevitable choice for protecting China's increasingly globalized national interests," said the paper.

President Hu Jintao has made the navy a keystone of China's military ramp-up, and the carriers will be among the most visible signs of the country's rising military prowess.

China has repeatedly denied its military modernization is for anything other than defensive purposes, pointing out it that it spend far less than the United States on its military.
 
Hi

This is from Napoleon Bonaprte back in the mid 19th century:

"La Chine est un géant qui sommeille, ne le réveillez pas ou il fera trembler le monde."

"China is a giant in its sleep, don't wake it up or it will shake the World" My lame attempt at translating French to English,

Frantz,

I only saw this thread now.

We should remember that Napoleon died in 1821. This sentence become very popular after Alain Peyrefitte (a french politician) quoted it in his book "Quand la Chine s'éveillera... le monde tremblera" (1973), attributing it to Napoleon. Some people say it is pronounced in 1803, other in 1816, but is is an apocryphal sentence - many serious historians doubt Napoleon ever pronounced it.

Curiously Alain Peyrefitte is burried in L'Hôtel National des Invalides that also hosts Napoleon.
 
In my recent trip to the U.S. (SF), our party of 4 almost always went shopping. Clothes, shoes, gadgets, etc. My sister-in-law has a penchant for designer bags, and was at the cashier about to pay for a Kate Spade bag when she looked closer, spotted a Made in China tag, and dumped it back in the bin. I asked her why, she said if it's gonna be Made in China, she can buy a hoard of cheaper bags that are Made in China. That made me think. American brand, Made in China. That made me think audio. ARC, CJ, Magnepan, etc. If they were Made in China, would I buy them still? If I bought it anyway, would it feel any different than if it was Made in the USA? I'm beginning to feel that this may be some kind of syndrome. But, in this trip, I bought a Nikon Coolpix S6100. When I came home I was surprised to see that it is Made in China. The great Japanese brand Nikon is now (maybe it was long ago) Made in China. And honestly, when I touched it and used it, I still felt like it was Made in Japan. I couldn't tell the difference. The quality is excellent.
 
Why would the Chinese want to dominate the world militarily when they can just buy it so cheap?

Tim
 
Been in China for the last 7 days......

One of the things that I have heard a lot this week from the local Chinese is that China and the Chinese is always looking backwards in history. If you watch TV here, there are plenty of "Period Dramas" - using historical fiction, but still rooted in some truth. The Chinese say that Westerners try to ignore history and are always looking forward to imagine the future. They are in debt because tomorrow, they think that they can always earn more. The Chinese will not spend what they have not earned. That may change with the young, but that is still true of the current crop of business leaders. A 10% annual business growth is good to them. But in the past 10 years, the economic growth have been dizzying and as a result, every one of them know friends or friends of friends who have ignored tradition, and grown themselves into failure.

The Government here is moving extremely fast - the high speed trains for example will soon connect all the major cities. The recent accident slowed the build-out by 6 months so that they may be able to study what really happened, and in the mean time, the trains are travelling at 240kmh (150mph) instead of 360kmh (225mph). In ShenZhen city, they are building six mass rapid transit lines at the same time!! It's total chaos on the roads right now, but once it's done, they will carry 10 million riders a day.

They know what's happening in the world - they know that 80% of America's economy is internal, and 80% of China's economy is external. They are trying to build the internal economy. Before I got here, I heard of the "Housing Bubble" here in China, but it's not a bubble if rising wages are keeping track of rising housing prices. Increasing tax collection is also fueling the building of infrastructure (roads, rail, airports, power plants) while the private sector is building communications as fast as the population can consume it. The last time I was here 2 years ago, the Internet was slow in the hotel. This trip, it's blazingly fast!

I think that as the factory of the world, China is not going to be cheap for very much longer. As jadis noted, quality is improving significantly, but so are prices. Education, training, the promotion of ISO quality standards, etc. are driven by demand - and the government is investing heavily in education and healthcare.

China has changed much in the two years since I was last here. The giant is wide awake.
 
Been in China for the last 7 days......

One of the things that I have heard a lot this week from the local Chinese is that China and the Chinese is always looking backwards in history. If you watch TV here, there are plenty of "Period Dramas" - using historical fiction, but still rooted in some truth. The Chinese say that Westerners try to ignore history and are always looking forward to imagine the future. They are in debt because tomorrow, they think that they can always earn more. The Chinese will not spend what they have not earned. That may change with the young, but that is still true of the current crop of business leaders.

When I was there back in the 80s, our guides brought us to theatres that showed mainly historical movies. And given China's many thousand years history, that isn't hard to imagine. The theatres were always packed. The govt seemed to be plying the masses with history so that people will learn from the past. And one thing they have learned is never again to be weak as a sovereign nation. And given their unorthodox way of running things, they have used economic might to fuel their military might to gain that strength. And you are absolutely right, Gary, the Chinese will not spend what they have not earned. My parents and grandparents came from China to the Philippines, and imparted in us young ones that same old thinking, of not spending what we do not have. They made a living out of earning and saving money, then buy with what they saved. I have a good buddy here who owns a chain of pawnshops in the Metro area, I told him his pawnshops will not survive in Chinatown because of such cultural mentality - we don't spend what we do not have. And this can be seen today in the huge surplus China has, in trillions of dollars, which they now lend to others.
 
I think that as the factory of the world, China is not going to be cheap for very much longer.

I think this is true. They won't need to be. An aside, but a relevant one: I'm back into regularly playing music again after a few years off. I'm rehearsing a band and getting ready to gig. The only electric guitar I own at this point is a very limited-production custom shop model that doesn't really need to be spending its nights in bars, so I've been looking for a backup. The quality I've found coming out of China (and other points East) is remarkable. They are turning out instruments for $200 - $500 that are very good, and at the top end of that range are many that simply are not compromised at all. Let me be clear; by not comrpomised at all I mean they are the functional and cosmetic equal of North American instruments selling at three to four times that price.

The best Asian instruments selling for $400 - $500 could easily go up by 50% and still be a staggering bargain. The biggest challenge for them, really, is credibility. But all it takes is getting one in the musician's hands and that hurdle is cleared.

Tim
 
When I was there back in the 80s, our guides brought us to theatres that showed mainly historical movies. And given China's many thousand years history, that isn't hard to imagine. The theatres were always packed. The govt seemed to be plying the masses with history so that people will learn from the past. And one thing they have learned is never again to be weak as a sovereign nation. And given their unorthodox way of running things, they have used economic might to fuel their military might to gain that strength. And you are absolutely right, Gary, the Chinese will not spend what they have not earned. My parents and grandparents came from China to the Philippines, and imparted in us young ones that same old thinking, of not spending what we do not have. They made a living out of earning and saving money, then buy with what they saved. I have a good buddy here who owns a chain of pawnshops in the Metro area, I told him his pawnshops will not survive in Chinatown because of such cultural mentality - we don't spend what we do not have. And this can be seen today in the huge surplus China has, in trillions of dollars, which they now lend to others.

This is true of the public, but local government/beaurocracy spending has been excessive and is causing some interesting debt considerations in China, this is still lower than north america but is estimated to be still around at least $1.6trillion, problem though this is at a local-regional government level.

Cheers
Orb
 
In my recent trip to the U.S. (SF), our party of 4 almost always went shopping. Clothes, shoes, gadgets, etc. My sister-in-law has a penchant for designer bags, and was at the cashier about to pay for a Kate Spade bag when she looked closer, spotted a Made in China tag, and dumped it back in the bin. I asked her why, she said if it's gonna be Made in China, she can buy a hoard of cheaper bags that are Made in China. That made me think. American brand, Made in China. That made me think audio. ARC, CJ, Magnepan, etc. If they were Made in China, would I buy them still? If I bought it anyway, would it feel any different than if it was Made in the USA? I'm beginning to feel that this may be some kind of syndrome. But, in this trip, I bought a Nikon Coolpix S6100. When I came home I was surprised to see that it is Made in China. The great Japanese brand Nikon is now (maybe it was long ago) Made in China. And honestly, when I touched it and used it, I still felt like it was Made in Japan. I couldn't tell the difference. The quality is excellent.

I think there are separate points here:

1. Souvenirs. I used to go to Japan all the time and would bring back toys when our children were young. I would always look at the label and only bring it back if it said made in Japan. Usually it said US or China and I thought it was silly to bring a souvenir that was not made there. Maybe that is what was going on there.

2. There is a big difference between made and designed in China vs manufactured in China. And even within that, there is a difference between factories owned completely by Chinese companies and ones set up by Western companies there where they have their own employees working there.

The standard path for mass market electronics is to go to an "ODM" in Taiwan which will design it for you based on a set of modules/existing designs. Then they have it be manufactured in mainland China. The company that is buying the product will then make sure there are sufficient quality control measures there to meet their needs. Vast majority if not all DVD players for example are done this way. Computers are very commonly done this way too. I don't find the quality that different here than if the equipment was manufactured or built in Korea or Japan.

In Consumer Electronics space, only the most expensive and highest margin/new products are built int he home country. The rest is always manufactured overseas due to cost difference.

When I was working for Sony, we were building a computer in 1990s that we needed a power supply for. Sony had a power supply division so we first went to them. They bid something like $150 for each one. I told them I could buy it locally for $20 and if they could match that. They said no, and would not be interested in building anything "cheap." They asked me who made those power supplies and I explained that they were designed in Taiwan and manufactured in China. The procurement group then told me they could not allow that because they could not put Sony name on a product without their standards being met.

So I asked them what they wanted me to do. They said there is a Japanese company which has their engineering in Taiwan and manufacturing in China that they trust. I asked them how much they would charge for a powers supply. They said they make them for IBM (Lenovo now) and they cost $25. I said fine, let's go with them. They said they were not allowed to sell that to Sony. I asked why. They said Sony requires lower failure rate and they have to burn them in overnight (running them) and weed out the failing ones. That raised the price to $35. This was fine with us and we went them.

The point being that there are quality levels one can target. As a way of example, i was shopping for keyboards and a Chinese company was underbidding then market leader Fujitsu by 2:1. But here was the catch: no warranty! They said they would give us 10% extra keyboards for free so that we could replace the bad ones with the spares. We went with Fujitsu :).

As a counter example, I was once buying woodworking equipment. It was a Jointer that is used to flatten wood. I called a company and asked them why I should buy theirs rather than the market leader. He told me their Jointers were made in US and the other in China. I decided to go with the latter anyway. The unit showed up in two pieces. The top which is a massive cast iron piece where all the precision needs to be. That was made in China. The bottom was a box with a motor and a belt that turned the cutter in the Jointer in the Chinese top. This part was made in US. And wouldn't you know, they had put in the pulley in reverse! I had to swap it out to get it working. I later read that when the company moved product to China, they also put their own employees there full time to perform quality control. Clearly it showed. They must have left the US company with no supervision :).

On differences between US and eastern cultures, I work for a while for a Japanese Sony executive who also managed the TV manufacturing which at that time was in US. That was with CRT TVs which were heavy and hence cheaper to build them here. Proximity to Corning glass was also helpful there. The process then was to start manufacturing in Japan and then move it here to a factory that was a complete clone in San Diego.

So I asked the executive if there were differences in quality. He said yes. I asked why, expecting him to tell me that Americans are sloppy and such. He said American workers are actually much more creative than the Japanese, constantly coming up with ways to improve the process. Surprised, I asked why that made the quality lower. He said the problem was that they always wanted to get promoted and make more money. They would do that but then the guy would screw up the new job until he learned it and quality would go down. The same worker in Japan was content with sitting there putting on the same screw on the picture tube for 25 years!
 
Very nice insights. Amirm. On the subject of souvenirs, here is another example. My wife asked me to find a couple of towels while I'm in SF that specifically are marked Made in the USA. She wants them as presents for a friend here in the Philippines. The idea is that while I am in the US shopping, I should bring home Made in US things, to kinda tell people that the thing really came from the US due to my trip. This is a mentality that is hard to correct. I am actually frustrated in explaining the inner details of why she should still but USA brands which are not made in the US but nothing gets through to her head, and her entire family as well. She even pointed out a story where her mother who just traveled to NJ, came home and gave her a shirt that was Made in the Philippines. She said if the gift were given to someone else, that person might think that her mother bought the shirt in Manila rather from NJ. Oh well, I give up trying to explain the situation to her but as souvenirs, I do see her point. Which makes me wonder, what happened to all the garment factories in the US and all its laborers? Where did they go? And one more thing, this same sister in law who dumped the Kate Spade 'Made in China' bag had no trouble buying a Lacoste Shirt that says Designed in France, Made in Honduras, or was it El Salvador. I give up. ;)
 
To put China in a longer term perspective. Looks like the pat 100 years or so are the aberration

world-gdp-comparison-1500-to-now.jpg
 

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