Times are bad. But there is no need to fudge the numbers. http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/the-recovery-act-worked-in-a-few-easy-charts/
Did did the stimulus work?
- Thread starter Gregadd
- Start date
So gregadd, what exactly is your argument? If you believe that it did work by stopping a market crash where's the support for that position? Either way the argument is hard to support but one thing is absolutely true and that is the undelivered promise of this administration to keep unemployment below 8%.
read the post in link 1. Groups like the tea part and republicans have fought him all the way and squeezed evrything to make him a failure. OTOH he needs to grow a pair.
I agree. Do you pay any attention to polling? Yeah, I know, polls don't mean a thing when they disagree with our positions, but what they're indicating, if you're interested, is that big numbers of Americans in the center (and by big I mean margins bigger than any president ever wins by) think tax cuts for the wealthy should be eliminated, capital gains taxes should be raised, federal money should be spent on infrastructure, medicare and social security should not be cut (even 70% who identify themselves as Tea Party supporters want to preserve Medicare), stricter regulation of the financial markets should be passed, Wall Street should be punished for screwing up the world....etc.
The "center" is to the left of Obama's actions, if not his words, and WAAAAAY to the left of the GOP congress. And of course that does not mean that an incumbent president will not be punished for a bad economy. Nor does it mean that Obama has been particularly effective. What it does mean, though, is that if they punish him to the tune of electing anyone currently electable on the other side, they will not be serving their own interests. That won't be anything new, but there it is.
Obama has two big problems: An economy he could keep out of total collapse (with the help of the previous administration) but can't fix enough to make it show, and an inability to communicate effectively that his opposition is also in stark opposition to the will of the people. The latter is his best chance of survival in my view. The current GOP is badly out of sync with voters; voters just don't know it. Paint that picture clear enough and they will look unacceptable if not downright dangerous to about 60% of America. Obama needs to run against that. He needs to define who they are and what they stand for, because all they ever talk about is fiscal responsibility that they have never practiced when in power. And if he doesn't, he's just going to have to hope that they nominate someone so bad that (s)he'll self-destruct.
But frankly? I don't think Obama has the heart for that campaign.
Tim
Mr. Bernstein has left out about 80 pct of the picture. The Fed has pumped into the money center banks and equity markets atleast 3 trillion dollars and it is probably a low number. No the market hasn't crashed,not yet atleast. Unemployment has'nt gone totally in the toilet but could if europe craters.
All this so called stimulus has gone to try to stave of the de-leverging of debt and incredible risk taking that has gone on for the last 10 years through out the world financial systems. America has now for the most part become a service and parasitic based financial economy. If in 2008 when the banks had their balance sheets destroyed by bad and fraudelent loan schemes and these banks had rightfully been put in receivership we would be at the trough now. The refusel of the banks,Fed,and government to accept the inevitable outcome of bad bets and wholesale fraud has postponed what should have been done for the greater long term health of this country.
If our leaders would have put these financial institutions in receivership and reliquified the the system with 1 trillion dollars,that 1 trillion with a fractional reserve banking requirement of 10 to 1 could have provided up to 10 trillion dollars in new credit. Of course all the stock holders would have lost their investments,but that is the risk they knew or should have known going in.
Now because of these oligarchs we have accomplished nothing except the few have benifited at the expense of the many. We need to rebuild this financial stucture with clean balance sheets because without credit this economy will continue to stagnate. Without credit we cannot put trade policies into effect to facilitate new manufacturing to create higher paying jobs and have a sustained real growth path for the years to come.
Until the fraud and corruption is dealt with from the prior excesses and the path of money cutoff from the multi national corporations to our govenment leaders this zombie economy will continue much like Japan. What is missing is true leadership for the people by the people and for the benifit of every man to pursure his dreams. Seems to me that was why this country was formed in the beginning. We can start over,the question is when, the sooner the better.
All this so called stimulus has gone to try to stave of the de-leverging of debt and incredible risk taking that has gone on for the last 10 years through out the world financial systems. America has now for the most part become a service and parasitic based financial economy. If in 2008 when the banks had their balance sheets destroyed by bad and fraudelent loan schemes and these banks had rightfully been put in receivership we would be at the trough now. The refusel of the banks,Fed,and government to accept the inevitable outcome of bad bets and wholesale fraud has postponed what should have been done for the greater long term health of this country.
If our leaders would have put these financial institutions in receivership and reliquified the the system with 1 trillion dollars,that 1 trillion with a fractional reserve banking requirement of 10 to 1 could have provided up to 10 trillion dollars in new credit. Of course all the stock holders would have lost their investments,but that is the risk they knew or should have known going in.
Now because of these oligarchs we have accomplished nothing except the few have benifited at the expense of the many. We need to rebuild this financial stucture with clean balance sheets because without credit this economy will continue to stagnate. Without credit we cannot put trade policies into effect to facilitate new manufacturing to create higher paying jobs and have a sustained real growth path for the years to come.
Until the fraud and corruption is dealt with from the prior excesses and the path of money cutoff from the multi national corporations to our govenment leaders this zombie economy will continue much like Japan. What is missing is true leadership for the people by the people and for the benifit of every man to pursure his dreams. Seems to me that was why this country was formed in the beginning. We can start over,the question is when, the sooner the better.
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That sounds pretty good in hindsight, though I think it would have brought world markets crashing down in a way none of us are prepared for. The part I agree with is that after the crash was averted, the financial institutions should have been dismantled, the stockholders should have lost their investments, mangement should have lost control. The health of the economy should have been taken out of their hands. Receivership? I'm not sure they needed to be recoverable. On the contrary, I think they need to be prevented from ever growing that powerful again. We averted a horrible crisis...or perhaps put it off, but we did nothing to address the cause.
Tim
Tim
I agree in principal at least. I am talking about first aid(stimulus). You are talking about a long term cure.
Allowing the economy to collapse is political suicide. Not to mention the pain it would inflict on the general population. Obviously the rescue should have come from the bottom up. By doing it from he top down the rich get bailed out twice. Global competition is so fierce recovery is not a given like it was in the "30s
Allowing the economy to collapse is political suicide. Not to mention the pain it would inflict on the general population. Obviously the rescue should have come from the bottom up. By doing it from he top down the rich get bailed out twice. Global competition is so fierce recovery is not a given like it was in the "30s
Recalls the 1972 quote variously attributed to the critic Pauline Kael or the reporter Helen Thomas "I don't know how Nixon won. Everyone I know voted for McGovern"
Develeraging of debt is only treating the symptom. More important is to deleverage our culture of entitlement. It's not only the bankers that are too big to fail, it's the housing speculators applying for mortgages they can't afford. A society can not function when individuals and institutions don't have the obligation to make good on their promises Ourdebt is symptomatic of a larger and utlimately more serious societal problem.
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Recalls the 1972 quote variously attributed to the critic Pauline Kael or the reporter Helen Thomas "I don't know how Nixon won. Everyone I know voted for McGovern"
Develeraging of debt is only treating the symptom. More important is to deleverage our culture of entitlement. It's not only the bankers that are too big to fail, it's the housing speculators applying for mortgages they can't afford. A society can not function when individuals and institutions don't have the obligation to make good on their promises Our society's debt is symptomatic of a larger and utlimately more serious societal problem.
In 1961 the USD was no longer backed by silver. In 1974 Nixon closed the gold window and Paul Volcker went to europe to initiate the floating rate monetary system. That is fertile ground for countless shanigans and breeds corruption. A country is only as good as it's currency.
Recalls the 1972 quote variously attributed to the critic Pauline Kael or the reporter Helen Thomas "I don't know how Nixon won. Everyone I know voted for McGovern"
Well, I'm talking about pols; quite a few of them. And while they can be wrong, they're a bit more indicative of the will of the people than "everyone I know." They are, in fact, statistically more indicative of the will of the people than election results.
We agree, more or less. We have lots of problems, cultural and pragmatic. But the biggest problem right now is we're acting as if the debt is our only problem, an isolated problem. We've decided the patient is fat and sent him out for a run, ignoring the fact that he has a broken foot.
Tim
Did the "leaders" have the authority to put AIG into receivership? Could you cite the statute? Of course, they could have not loaned any money to AIG. Now, that would be interesting. What do you think would have happened?
Seems like the current "political wind" is less regulation and gov't power over commerce. So set-up this scenario for your insight, the govt did nothing to bail out AIG. What would have happened? How much do you know about the situation at AIG?
Probably not under the current banking statutes. But they could require that all derivatives outstanding be settled in open market...in essence diffusing the "bomb".
The Fed and Gov have still not addressed this problem,in fact this problem should be the first thing done in any reform.
Another observation is does the Fed really have far reaching authority to "bail out" foreign banks through currency swap arrangement or buying financial paper that is not strickly guarenteed by Gov agencys or the US treasury. Also they have increased their balance sheet debt by these bailouts and in a slight of hand have put the US taxpayer on the hook. These are constutional questions that should be addressed and lend to many arguments that the Fed should be reformed or abolished.
I don't have much confidence in the "Gov" agreeing on much of anything these days. Only Paul (and maybe the other libertarians) advocates abolishing the fed and while I like his lack of being a politiician, he isn't going to win and there are many (smart people too) who think that eliminating the Fed is like saying "hey, depressions aren't so bad". Nothing against reforming anything if it makes something work better.
By the way, I think we narrowly avoided a severe world depression, but I can't prove it. History (50-100 years from now) will probably make an accurate judgement. You have to let the current and not so current political bs get out of the way first. That is why these Ken Burns docs are fascinating to me. Civil War as told when the politics aren't in the way. First part of Prohibition was fascinating to me as well.
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I don't think we or the world is out of the proverbial woods yet. Many think Greece will still default which could start a chain reaction with Spain and Italy behind them. Our economy is in the tank, unemployment is high, and the Wall Street protests have now spread to all 50 states.
We clearly have the *best* congress money can buy. If I was King for a day, the first thing I would do is outlaw all lobbyists. They are not there to lobby on behalf of the American people, they are there to lobby on behalf of corporations and their profits. When is the last time that any of you took your congressman out to a fine dinner, flew him to an exotic location on your private jet, and shared with him your concerns for your business? Does anyone besides me find it odd that during the parties conventions that all ethic rules are suspended so lobbyists can cut even greater deals while they wine and dine our congress members at private clubs and yahts where they keep the press away so no one can see the sleeze that is going on?
I'd go for something a little more effective and encompasing myself. I'd pass a law limiting the amount that can be spent on election campaigns, publicly funding those campaigns, and declaring accepting anything more than a tab at lunch for an elected official to be exactly what it often is -- accepting a bribe.
K Street would take care of itself, and the resulting efficiencies would pay for the public financing of election campaigns many times over. I'd also reinstitute the Fairness Doctrine. But that's probably another thread.
Tim
The Supreme Court pretty much made limits on spending unconstitutional. You would need a constitutional amendment. I'm not really in favor of that.
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