. . . BTC is going up....because it's going up. Really has no use or store of value concept still. In fact, it . . . doesn't hedge anything.
. . . The whole world has thought about institutional ownership for awhile now. . . . the easy money has been made.
This post stopped me in my tracks. KeithR is an investment professional and I am not, so I have to weight his opinions heavier than I weight my own opinions. His opinions give me pause.
I think Bitcoin is a store of value.
I think Bitcoin is a hedge on the unlimited printing of fiat currency.
I think institutional acceptance and adoption of Bitcoin as an investment and as an asset class in broadening.
Bitcoin maximalists assert that Bitcoin is going to US$500,000 and then to US$1 million over many years. My personal investment thesis is far more modest. I believe Bitcoin is a competitor to gold. I think this is one reason the price of gold has stalled in the face of unprecedented printing of US dollars.
Right now BTC is about 10% of the market capitalization of gold. I think it is very reasonable to assume that BTC will get to at least 20% or 30% of the market capitalization of gold in the next few years. That would suggest that BTC doubles or triples in price from here. And that is before we even consider any use of BTC as a currency or as a token of commerce.
In the first three months of this year, it became clear to me that Bitcoin will now become a standard part of almost every investment adviser's and money manager's asset allocation pie chart showing allocations to stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities. My personal view is that BTC will not go below the January low of $32,000, which was the beginning of the "a-ha moment" for the institutional investment world.
I think there now are institutional and high net worth investors all over the world looking to buy significant BTC dips to establish initial investments and to increase their exposure to BTC. I think this is why the dips since the Morgan Stanley announcement have been shallow compared to BTC's prior dips.
Finally, I believe that a "Minsky Moment" favors literally only BTC and gold.
I used to think in the traditional investment terms of buying Bitcoin, hoping it goes up, and selling it at a profit. I thought of Bitcoin as the
means to make a profit. Now I think of Bitcoin as the
end. Now I hope my other investments go up so I can sell them and buy more Bitcoin. I am never selling Bitcoin again.
But KeithR is the investment professional, and I am not. Keith is more successful in the difficult field of investing than I am.
It will be fascinating to see who proves to be more correct over the years.