Dear RogerD,
Thank you for your replies but I do not understand the technical analysis jargon you are talking about.
Thank you for your replies but I do not understand the technical analysis jargon you are talking about.
Bitcoin
- Thread starter Ron Resnick
- Start date
I just love watching it go up and down. It's great fun as you stare at your gains in disbelief.
It's also cool when it falls watching for buying opportunities.
I reckon you have to be an absolute lemon not to spot basic trends and make a loss.
Seriously thinking about doing a bit of trading. Far more dangerous
BTW don't listen to me. I was down for two years That said when you're down you simply wait until you are not.
It's also cool when it falls watching for buying opportunities.
I reckon you have to be an absolute lemon not to spot basic trends and make a loss.
Seriously thinking about doing a bit of trading. Far more dangerous
BTW don't listen to me. I was down for two years
That said when you're down you simply wait until you are not.it's simple Fibonacci sequence math - very very common
i'd like to hear the thinking behind 200k btc (and please don't use gold market value)
This phenomenon does not come into effect unless the asset price is somewhere near the round number in question.
If BTC gets to, say, US$ 98,728, then it is highly likely going to hit 100,000.
I know it's Fibonacci sequence based -- I just didn't understand the related jargon of "clearly impulsing down in a 5,3,5,3...but it doesn't quite count right...instead of a 1,2,3,4,5 it looks better as a nested 1,2,1,2...."
I do not think I ever posted that BTC > US$200,000 (although I do suspect it will get there eventually).
My basic investment thesis is that, eventually, BTC, based on a store of value or as an inflation hedge asset, will achieve a market capitalization at least equal to 20% of the market capitalization of gold. (I think this is a pretty modest objective considering the extent to which high net worth individuals and institutional investors are beginning to accept and adopt BTC as a legitimate asset class.)
This would put BTC at about US$130,000.
I am not factoring in any practical use case for BTC as a currency.
PS: Is BTC going up? Or is it the US Dollar that is going down in terms of BTC? Or both?
Last edited:
I wouldn't loose any sleep over this. BTC is very good at telegraphing it's tops and bottoms.....the trend exhausts itself when it turns.
To me it looks like we are close to a major trend change. Maybe days away... Watch Japan
Japan completed a cycle B wave top in February. The wave V top occurred at the Covid top in February 2020 in the Dow
From the Covid low was a primary wave A. From that low the Dow has been in a irregular primary B wave and should top by Wednesday.
The cycle C wave lower should follow Japan's cycle C wave. I don't know the magnitude of the wave down...the breath of the negative psychology
will be the determining factor.
If we do not top in the coming days,then all markets could blow off....
BTC might still reach a 62 pct retrace
Japan completed a cycle B wave top in February. The wave V top occurred at the Covid top in February 2020 in the Dow
From the Covid low was a primary wave A. From that low the Dow has been in a irregular primary B wave and should top by Wednesday.
The cycle C wave lower should follow Japan's cycle C wave. I don't know the magnitude of the wave down...the breath of the negative psychology
will be the determining factor.
If we do not top in the coming days,then all markets could blow off....
BTC might still reach a 62 pct retrace
Attachments
Last edited:
Has it topped? An observation: I walked into Sam's club yesterday and steaks were marked at $14 a lb. A month ago they were $8
You can't have funny money Socialism....funny money Capitalism is bad enough. You run the risk of a UST bond market disaster.
It takes months to turn a bull market positive mass psychology....but once it turns,it usually turns on a dime.
Looks like the first week or 12 days in September for a top.... that would fit a down October starting to a cycle low
You can't have funny money Socialism....funny money Capitalism is bad enough. You run the risk of a UST bond market disaster.
It takes months to turn a bull market positive mass psychology....but once it turns,it usually turns on a dime.
Looks like the first week or 12 days in September for a top.... that would fit a down October starting to a cycle low
Attachments
Last edited:
BTC is back is above US$50,000. In my amateur way of looking at technical analysis that looks pretty darn bullish to me.
WSJ Updated Sept. 2, 2021 7:55 am ET by Paul Vigna
Why Bitcoin’s Price Got Stuck at $50,000
Investor interest in other corners of the crypto market—including Ethereum and NFTs—has contributed to the lull. Bitcoin’s price stalled right at $50,000 during its August rally. On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency settled at $48,279.42, before briefly crossing $50,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin is renowned for its volatility. It more than doubled from January through midApril, falling about 52% in the next three months and bouncing about 65% from July to August.
So what is keeping bitcoin treading water now? For one, investors are moving to other corners of the crypto market. Ethereum funds had inflows of $22.4 million in August, according to CoinShares. And funds focused on Cardano —a blockchain platform similar to Ethereum—had inflows of $18.7 million. On Wednesday, Ethereum rose 10% to $3,730, its highest level since May 15. It has quintupled so far this year. Nonfungible tokens spiked in the spring, and are surging now, drawing money away from bitcoin. NFTs are digital assets similar to bitcoin, with the difference that each is unique. On OpenSea, the biggest exchange for NFTs, trading volume has been $3.5 billion over the past 30 days, according to data from research site DappRadar. Before August, it had a total of about $1 billion in trading volume since its founding in 2016. Also, recently, two blue-chip U.S. companies— Visa Inc. and Facebook Inc. —both took a step into the NFT market. Visa purchased a “CryptoPunks” NFT, and Facebook said it is considering building services for NFTs in its forthcoming digital wallet service.
That is the kind of big-name news that used to drive bitcoin, and it might need to recapture those kinds of headlines to rebuild its momentum. Bitcoin’s August’s rally didn’t attract many new buyers. The cryptocurrency’s funds had outflows of $61 million in August, according to data from asset manager CoinShares, and outflows in 14 of the past 16 weeks. In a note, Bret Oliver, an analyst at Momentum Structural Analysis, wrote that bitcoin’s trading pattern since its April high resembles what happened after the 2017 peak. In 2017, the price reached about $20,000, fell sharply over the next three months, and then spent more than a year in an extended downturn before the next rally started. This downturn doesn’t necessarily have to last as long as the last one, he said, but he expects the market will be stuck in a range after this year’s selloff before building a new base. That means even if the July low holds, the recovery will be a drawn-out process, Mr. Oliver said.
Why Bitcoin’s Price Got Stuck at $50,000
Investor interest in other corners of the crypto market—including Ethereum and NFTs—has contributed to the lull. Bitcoin’s price stalled right at $50,000 during its August rally. On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency settled at $48,279.42, before briefly crossing $50,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin is renowned for its volatility. It more than doubled from January through midApril, falling about 52% in the next three months and bouncing about 65% from July to August.
So what is keeping bitcoin treading water now? For one, investors are moving to other corners of the crypto market. Ethereum funds had inflows of $22.4 million in August, according to CoinShares. And funds focused on Cardano —a blockchain platform similar to Ethereum—had inflows of $18.7 million. On Wednesday, Ethereum rose 10% to $3,730, its highest level since May 15. It has quintupled so far this year. Nonfungible tokens spiked in the spring, and are surging now, drawing money away from bitcoin. NFTs are digital assets similar to bitcoin, with the difference that each is unique. On OpenSea, the biggest exchange for NFTs, trading volume has been $3.5 billion over the past 30 days, according to data from research site DappRadar. Before August, it had a total of about $1 billion in trading volume since its founding in 2016. Also, recently, two blue-chip U.S. companies— Visa Inc. and Facebook Inc. —both took a step into the NFT market. Visa purchased a “CryptoPunks” NFT, and Facebook said it is considering building services for NFTs in its forthcoming digital wallet service.
That is the kind of big-name news that used to drive bitcoin, and it might need to recapture those kinds of headlines to rebuild its momentum. Bitcoin’s August’s rally didn’t attract many new buyers. The cryptocurrency’s funds had outflows of $61 million in August, according to data from asset manager CoinShares, and outflows in 14 of the past 16 weeks. In a note, Bret Oliver, an analyst at Momentum Structural Analysis, wrote that bitcoin’s trading pattern since its April high resembles what happened after the 2017 peak. In 2017, the price reached about $20,000, fell sharply over the next three months, and then spent more than a year in an extended downturn before the next rally started. This downturn doesn’t necessarily have to last as long as the last one, he said, but he expects the market will be stuck in a range after this year’s selloff before building a new base. That means even if the July low holds, the recovery will be a drawn-out process, Mr. Oliver said.
It's not the worst analogy in the world that silver is to gold as Ethereum is to Bitcoin. My "eureka" moment in this field occurred in 2017 when I understood that Ethereum's programmable and self-executing smart contracts are a high-tech version of over-the-counter swap contracts.
The term smart contract really just means code associated with a blockchain. It's not necessarily bound to anything in common law. In Ethereum that code is written in a language called Solidity.
So I think the term smart contract is misleading.
From Wiki:
"The US National Institute of Standards and Technology describes a "smart contract" as a "collection of code and data (sometimes referred to as functions and state) that is deployed using cryptographically signed transactions on the blockchain network".
So I think the term smart contract is misleading.
From Wiki:
"The US National Institute of Standards and Technology describes a "smart contract" as a "collection of code and data (sometimes referred to as functions and state) that is deployed using cryptographically signed transactions on the blockchain network".
Similar threads
