Looks like a good short set up is building in the market with the fed possibly hiking 75 basis points .
Any gamblers out there ?
Any gamblers out there ?
Bitcoin
- Thread starter Ron Resnick
- Start date
Sounds crazy to us. Probably like a 6/10 on Chinese scale. Contracts there are much more in stone. Obviously one side isn’t holding up, but it may be implied so hands are tied.And its getting worse hundreds of thousands of chinese are refusing to pay mortgages .
I watched a story of a chinese guy / family who bought an appartment in a new project in china , he signed the contract in 2018
There was nothing built yet when he made the 30 % downpayment and took the mortgage.
The home was supposed to be ready in april / may 2021 so he could move in .
Apparently all the work on the construction site has stopped completely since over a year and a half and the appartment is only finished for 50 % with no end in sight of the construction continuing .
So the guy lost the 30 % downpayment and is now renting a property to live in while he is also still legally obliged to pay the mortgage on the unfinished appartment as well .
No wonder he stopped paying .
It looks like everywhere there is a financial mess these days.
Chinese real estate is 30 % of their GDP
The great Chinese mortgage strike: Thousands of homebuyers are refusing to pay their home loans as growing boycotts spread online
As of Monday, homebuyers in over Chinese 80 cities said they were refusing to pay their mortgages, affecting more than 200 projects, according to E-house.fortune.com
Normally you d think the contract would be terminated and the quilty side charged for a 10 % fine of the in the contract agreed amount or something in that order.
Some people have other things to think off lol.
Apparently he is searching for investors to put in as much as 10 million to do a full on search through all the garbage
Man accidentally threw away $127 million in bitcoin and officials won't allow a search
James Howells mined 7,500 bitcoins in 2009, which ended up in a landfill in South Wales.
www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org
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Transaction completed.
There is a good possibility though that the gold and silver mining stocks make another 30 40 % drop from here , before they start the climb.
Just as BTC extremely volatile, not something i would suggest on margin
I cant see the market holding up , through the rest of the year,
With another 1 - 2 % rate hikes foreseen, tomorrow CPI
If normal stocks falll usually the miningsector goes down with the overal market
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And thats happening right now .
The fed tightening and letting the air out of this inflated bubble .
Bitcoin is holding up quite good , but i reckon this is the last down move for gold .
The fed wil reverse course when the market tanks 40-50 %.
Unfortunately i didnt short the index , i dont know about the US but option contracts in NL had crazy high premiums even before this down move.
The fed tightening and letting the air out of this inflated bubble .
Bitcoin is holding up quite good , but i reckon this is the last down move for gold .
The fed wil reverse course when the market tanks 40-50 %.
Unfortunately i didnt short the index , i dont know about the US but option contracts in NL had crazy high premiums even before this down move.
Bitcoin = proof of work or proof of waste.
Ethereum = proof of stake or proof of stupidity.
Dollar/fiat = proof of long term loss by inflation or money printing.
Government = proof of not sure how to handle it all.
Lawyers = proof of field day.
Decent human = relatively uninvolved.
Proof of best compromise = Bitcoin. Work rules. Solvable problems exist.
Ethereum = proof of stake or proof of stupidity.
Dollar/fiat = proof of long term loss by inflation or money printing.
Government = proof of not sure how to handle it all.
Lawyers = proof of field day.
Decent human = relatively uninvolved.
Proof of best compromise = Bitcoin. Work rules. Solvable problems exist.
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I went all cash a long time ago. I watch a lot of Ray Dalio, Michael Burry, Jamie Dimon and a host of others.
I see the pain only just starting. You have to look at the Macro. Credit C debt is at an all time high. People got use to their government hand outs. They spent it all. The consumer is going to be leveraged all the way through Christmas like nothing is going on. Trying to keep the markets alive. Then they will break.
And the inflation of real assets such as rent, fuel and food are depleting savings. Wages are not keeping up. Wages were wasted in coffee houses and restaurant. Remember, a 10% wage inceease for a person making minimum wage is only a night out to dinner.
Then there is the Fed lying to the people. They were going to go into QT and take money out of the economy. 1.2T. They only took 750B. Then they turned right around and passed Bidens inflation act and pumped a T back in. Why does this matter. It means business are flush with $ to invest. Free money much like the money they have lived on with QE.
This created a lot of the inflation we are in. So the Fed tells everyone, we are going to drive up interest rates. This is either keeping people from selling real estate since they have no where to go. For a while. Or, if they can get businesses to lay of employees, it will bring real estate on as bankruptcy role in. And who will buy that real estate. You got it. The rich. Purchaed with cash. I see this is the largest set up for a transfer of real wealth from the working Americans to the elite class. Don't forget. A lot of our real estate, at least 30% has been sales to corporate portfolio. Foreign and domestic.
All of the above means inflation will roar along until the US government quits pumping $$ into the economy.
I am sitting on the side with cash. I won't enter the market until the fed say they are cutting interest and also the quiet signal that QE has begun again. Which really never stopped. So really it comes down to perception. An admonishment they fed has destroyed the economy and wants to repair it. That is my bottom.
Power is the play as I see it. They are going to keep pushing wind and solar. That means a full trillion needs to go into transmission lines from the middle of the country to the edges. Unfortunately that will all go to maybe 3 companies.
Metals such as rare earth. Unfortunately that is a global product. Mined in most countries outside the US.
Oil and coal. Oil is a little bit of a play in the US. But coal is exploding in Europe and Asia. China is on a break neck pase building out the largest coal electrification growth in history. Their CO2 will dwarf the US when they are done. They are building out coal power to smelt raw ore into copper bar and steel for the US and Europe to build electrical transmissions and electric generators/motors . A possible opportunity to make money off black gold.
Real estate is a solid play. In the US. It sounds like the Netherlands has found a way to keep the middle class out with regulations. Sorry to hear that. But you have to be careful where you buy. You have to look Macro again. The earth is in a normal heating cycle. It historically every 1500 years gets hotter than where we are today. Add to that the excess CO2. Add to that desertification caused by modern farming and urban growth. Desertification is where normal forest land stabilizes thermal upcurrents so that rain falls locally. When the trees are removed and fields planted, thermal drafts push local clouds out into bands in major jet stream. Rain no longer falls locally. It falls in sheets over limited regions. People will more run from the drought than follow the rain. They fear the faucet going dry. So they will migrate north and east. The grain belt of the country will be decimated. That means real eatate in pockets of geography will be of limited supply, rents will soar and prices will climb.
I believe Peter Zeihan has s good point to make about the collapse of China. This will also drive inflation as products made by artificially low labor wages will migrate back to point of use. That equals not only higher prices, but high employment which equals consumers with $ to put into the economy. = Inflation.
Did I mention Russia and low yield nukes. Did I mention micro nuclear reactors. Both game changers.
As soon as Russia uses a low yield Nuc, China will use them against our Navy. Why not, right. Its just military personnel threatening your border. A couple low yield blast in the ocean and no more ships of war. That means Intel better have their 3 new chip plants currently in the design and build phase in the US completed soon. And the Gov needs to get out of the way of micro nuclear technology deployment. That in itself will shed a lifetime of CO2 by simply eliminating the need for that Trillion in infastrucre investment in copper and steel for transmission to move power. These micro reactors can be dropped in, point of use. They can sit in a yard next to a steel or glass or data center and require no grid power. They are closed core helium cooled and at the end of 20 years, you pull out the core and drop a new one in.
I see the pain only just starting. You have to look at the Macro. Credit C debt is at an all time high. People got use to their government hand outs. They spent it all. The consumer is going to be leveraged all the way through Christmas like nothing is going on. Trying to keep the markets alive. Then they will break.
And the inflation of real assets such as rent, fuel and food are depleting savings. Wages are not keeping up. Wages were wasted in coffee houses and restaurant. Remember, a 10% wage inceease for a person making minimum wage is only a night out to dinner.
Then there is the Fed lying to the people. They were going to go into QT and take money out of the economy. 1.2T. They only took 750B. Then they turned right around and passed Bidens inflation act and pumped a T back in. Why does this matter. It means business are flush with $ to invest. Free money much like the money they have lived on with QE.
This created a lot of the inflation we are in. So the Fed tells everyone, we are going to drive up interest rates. This is either keeping people from selling real estate since they have no where to go. For a while. Or, if they can get businesses to lay of employees, it will bring real estate on as bankruptcy role in. And who will buy that real estate. You got it. The rich. Purchaed with cash. I see this is the largest set up for a transfer of real wealth from the working Americans to the elite class. Don't forget. A lot of our real estate, at least 30% has been sales to corporate portfolio. Foreign and domestic.
All of the above means inflation will roar along until the US government quits pumping $$ into the economy.
I am sitting on the side with cash. I won't enter the market until the fed say they are cutting interest and also the quiet signal that QE has begun again. Which really never stopped. So really it comes down to perception. An admonishment they fed has destroyed the economy and wants to repair it. That is my bottom.
Power is the play as I see it. They are going to keep pushing wind and solar. That means a full trillion needs to go into transmission lines from the middle of the country to the edges. Unfortunately that will all go to maybe 3 companies.
Metals such as rare earth. Unfortunately that is a global product. Mined in most countries outside the US.
Oil and coal. Oil is a little bit of a play in the US. But coal is exploding in Europe and Asia. China is on a break neck pase building out the largest coal electrification growth in history. Their CO2 will dwarf the US when they are done. They are building out coal power to smelt raw ore into copper bar and steel for the US and Europe to build electrical transmissions and electric generators/motors . A possible opportunity to make money off black gold.
Real estate is a solid play. In the US. It sounds like the Netherlands has found a way to keep the middle class out with regulations. Sorry to hear that. But you have to be careful where you buy. You have to look Macro again. The earth is in a normal heating cycle. It historically every 1500 years gets hotter than where we are today. Add to that the excess CO2. Add to that desertification caused by modern farming and urban growth. Desertification is where normal forest land stabilizes thermal upcurrents so that rain falls locally. When the trees are removed and fields planted, thermal drafts push local clouds out into bands in major jet stream. Rain no longer falls locally. It falls in sheets over limited regions. People will more run from the drought than follow the rain. They fear the faucet going dry. So they will migrate north and east. The grain belt of the country will be decimated. That means real eatate in pockets of geography will be of limited supply, rents will soar and prices will climb.
I believe Peter Zeihan has s good point to make about the collapse of China. This will also drive inflation as products made by artificially low labor wages will migrate back to point of use. That equals not only higher prices, but high employment which equals consumers with $ to put into the economy. = Inflation.
Did I mention Russia and low yield nukes. Did I mention micro nuclear reactors. Both game changers.
As soon as Russia uses a low yield Nuc, China will use them against our Navy. Why not, right. Its just military personnel threatening your border. A couple low yield blast in the ocean and no more ships of war. That means Intel better have their 3 new chip plants currently in the design and build phase in the US completed soon. And the Gov needs to get out of the way of micro nuclear technology deployment. That in itself will shed a lifetime of CO2 by simply eliminating the need for that Trillion in infastrucre investment in copper and steel for transmission to move power. These micro reactors can be dropped in, point of use. They can sit in a yard next to a steel or glass or data center and require no grid power. They are closed core helium cooled and at the end of 20 years, you pull out the core and drop a new one in.
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I'm unsure about Gold. I feel peoples perceptions have changed. How do you transact with it. I know how. You send a coin to APMEX and $$ are deposited in your account to pay your rent. Most people can't realize this. They think of it like Bitcoin, stocks and bonds. It seems to have become another market commodity like pork bellies or oil or copper. Virtual bankkng has made the security of a tangible asset less recognizable.
Keyneisian said globalization will end world wars as the cost will be to high. Europe is experiencing this now. This war will cost more than it produces. They don't have a military machine. Not like we use to. I don't know they are manufacturering anything for Ukraine. Mostly I hear they are sending money and receiving refugees. Refugees will be a greater strain on their economy.
China can not do anything but collapse in the next 30 years. They have no replacement population. They have no support system for the people that age out. They have 0 immigration in. They will fall. Business are already realizing this and pulling out. They are at a minimum, not reinvesting as their plants age out. The world is in a Nationalistic state. Every country is bringing it home.
I am only trying to talk economics and investing. You can't pluck your eyes from macro events that are driven by politics. The macro events are what drives the markets.
I went back into my long post and edited the obvious inflammatory comments. I feel the rest is not far from reality in a macro view of geopolitical events that impact world markets and where and how the people I follow are viewing the markets.
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I think now its a good time for people who have US $ to buy overseas gear.
If there is a credit issue in the markets due to fed tightening and the fed steps in and pivots the $ is gonna loose value
If there is a credit issue in the markets due to fed tightening and the fed steps in and pivots the $ is gonna loose value
I saved about $500 on a phono cartridge because the exchange rate if favorable to me. Yes it is a good time to purchase abroad.
I havent watched them there are so many who claim to be financial experts on you tube .
Peter schiff / Rick rule those are experts .
Although the timing is always a difficult thing
Everybody with a camera and a studio with a couple of interesting looking books in the background can go for it .
Same as audioreviewers lol anybody can have a go at it .
Peter schiff / Rick rule those are experts .
Although the timing is always a difficult thing
Everybody with a camera and a studio with a couple of interesting looking books in the background can go for it .
Same as audioreviewers lol anybody can have a go at it .
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