I can see from an oddsmaker point of view the onus is placed on experience for a team to win it all. I agree mostly too with his rankings based on that. For me LAL is the most dangerous team, being in the Finals the last 3 years if I'm not mistaken, and x-factors like Derek and Ron come playoff time cannot be properly quantified as far as 'vital performance' is concerned. Remember 'Big Shot' Robert Horry? How many times had he hit the winning basket at the closing seconds in a playoff game? Derek is just a guy like that.
As for the C's, it's high emotion that they need now. During their losing skid after the All Star break, I did not see an aggressive Garnett on the offensive side, I did not see Ray Allen scoring 20 ppg with those open looks. And I did not see Glen Davis or Jeff Green coming off the bench with a strong back up game for the starters. Their defense, acc to one analyst was fine after the break, points allowed was still one of the best in the league, so the supposedly defensive toughness lost by the Perkins trade is not really a cause for the slide, imo, it's the lack of consistent offensive contributions by KG and Allen. And Rondo did not have those 20 assists per game night either. So, if they turn this switch on, they should roll far, and Shaq will be an icing on the cake if he can play on.
In case of a Heat-Bulls East Finals, imo, it boils down to the question if Miami can steal a game in Chicago, and the Heat knows it's a must. And their advantage is having Wade as a guy who can elevate his game to that level - the mental toughness, and with that, James should be comfortable playing Robin without the pressure of carrying the team as he did in Cleveland.
The Spurs are kinda like mirror images of the C's. With reliable veterans who play with a system of calculated ball. And their experience in playoffs make them still very respectable. Somehow, I'd rank OKC 2 notches higher because of their firepower, but I can't see how they will defeat LAL in a 7 game playoff, at least this season.
If Melo plays consistent, the Knicks will give the C's a hard time. Consistency was his problem in Denver, so maybe the trade away gave Denver a more even distribution of the ball, hence a more consistent offense.
Maybe 1 or 2 upsets in the series can happen. But overall, I would bank with the top seeds here. Playoff basketball is where the mental state of players is elevated. And a champion team needs more than one player with that frame of mind.
I can't wait for the playoffs to start. My son kept asking me, 'dad, when are the playoffs gonna start?' I said: 'Sunday.' He asked again, 'Manila time or U.S. time?'
Giddy as a schoolboy.
