Oscars 2019 | Discussion: Speculation - Prediction - Film/Actor Critic Opinion

[NorthStar]

The official nomination list will be released on January 22nd.
The big evening is on February 24th.

It's always fun every year because everyone love movies and it's the big talk.
This year we have a modest assortment, nothing spectacular except for Black Panther...well above $1 billion @ the box office.

Is there art in Black Panther? Of course there is; the costumes, makeup, the CGI effects (derived from full featured graphic computers), state-of-the-art sound mixing consoles, orchestral music recordings. ...all that highly polished Disney Marvel movie entertainment. Is Black Panther going to win some Oscars? Yes, but not in the big prized categories, eg.; best picture and best director and best screenplay.

Here's an interesting earlier first view (prediction) from one film critic:
? https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/cremildo/oscars-nominations-2019/

He/she gave A Star Is Born a total of 5 Oscars.
And The Favourite with 4 Oscars.
Then Roma with 3 Oscars.
* Is this a moving target?

So the three big winners ^ according to his/her earlier predictions.

I'm reading some articles on which films and actors are on the running for Best chances this year @ the 91th Academy Awards for the Oscars. I think this year there are 7,902 Academy voters total.
• https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-new-academy-is-changing-oscar-race-1172681

I'm not a film expert and I just don't know what's in the head and heart of all these Academy voters. It is quasi impossible to predict with accuracy, it is impossible.
The only best that I can do is to predict my own preference. When I saw Roma ... I just knew immediately that I saw a film very special.

It is also impossible to see all the good films of 2018 from the entire planet.
So many films so little time.

 

[NorthStar]

It's fun every year when they open all those red enveloppes to announce the winners.
Two years ago (I'm sure you remember) it made the news big time in Hollywood and all over.
...Just a small mistake (wrong envelope) and it was hard to tell which reaction was best to adopt.
It's all a fading memory now; Roma is coming up @ the 2019 Oscars, without boundaries, without drama, without fear of being shut down.

Good luck to everyone else.

 

[NorthStar]

91st Oscars Shortlists

 

[NorthStar]

? https://www.thestar.com/amp/enterta...es-throw-oscar-forecasting-into-disarray.html

? https://www.indiewire.com/2019/01/roma-rank-best-picture-oscars-nominees-1202035625/amp/

The members of the Academy (the voters) have a good set of challenges this year.
But I trust their judgement; they voted/awarded correctly in 2012...for The Artist, with five Academy Awards (Oscars). ...A Black & White film, Silent, Foreign (French), 4:3 Screen Aspect Ratio.
_____

Extra:
? https://www.alternet.org/2019/01/two-things-you-may-have-missed-in-alfonso-cuarons-roma/amp/

? https://www.indiewire.com/2019/01/black-panther-oscar-craft-nomination-predictions-1202036179/amp/

 

[NorthStar]

Green Book just won Best Picture @ the PGA - Producers Guild Awards

That's a huge boost for next month. It'll be interesting, very.

 

[Steve Williams]

FWIW I like the Green Book far better than Roma

Roma has a chance to win but I think Green Book is a better film

 

[NorthStar]

8,000 Academy voters will decide next month.
Me I prefer Roma, but I like Green Book too.
_____

? https://variety.com/2019/film/award...london-critics-circle-winners-1203113042/amp/

 

[NorthStar]

I was also reading this earlier (fun):
• https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4980831

And the rankings/predictions so far:
• https://www.goldderby.com/article/2019/2019-oscar-nomination-predictions-ranked/amp/

 

[NorthStar]

If Roma wins Best Picture @ the Oscars this is just plain wrong:
-> https://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-amc-regal-roma-20190122-story.html

That would be sad because it makes them losers...AMC & Regal.

"Despite its role as a Hollywood disruptor, Netflix on Tuesday joined the Motion Picture Assn. of America, the main trade group representing the major studios."

 

[NorthStar]

I have one month to make my Oscar winners prediction (24 categories).
So far I'm about half (a dozen), including the two Biggest ones...Best Picture & Best Director.
And it's not Green Book (it has no Director's nomination), even if it won the Producers Guild Award.

Roma has four Oscars in the bag, if not five. It'll be the big winner of Oscars evening; Alfonso Cuarón. The vast majority of expert cinema viewers and reviewers agreed.
The general public (moviegoers and all), they have various views, uncertain and obscured.

My view is clear and clean on Roma; it's the best film of 2018.
____

* Quizz: Who won last year for Best Picture and Best Director?
...And Best Cinematography? ...Best Original Screenplay? ...Best Original Score?

* I was surprised that a poll in the USA revealed that less than 20% knew it (Best Picture only).

 

[NorthStar]

? My Oscars 2019 Predictions (work in progress ...):

Best Picture:

“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma” ?
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, “Vice” ?
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife” ?
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” ?
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” ?
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Director:

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” ?
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Animated Feature:

“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird *
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman ?

Animated Short:

“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi *
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee *
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Original Screenplay:

“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara *
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón ?
“Vice,” Adam McKay

Cinematography:

“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón ?
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Best Documentary Feature:

“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi ?
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Best Documentary Short Subject:

“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins *
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi

Best Live Action Short Film:

“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley *
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv

Best Foreign Language Film:

“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico) ?
“Shoplifters” (Japan)

Film Editing:

“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis *
“Vice,” Hank Corwin *

Sound Editing:

“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan ?
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl *
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Sound Mixing:

“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma” *
“A Star Is Born” ?

Production Design:

“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler ?
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton *
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enr??quez

Original Score:

“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell *
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Original Song:

“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice ?
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Makeup and Hair:

“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice” ?

Costume Design:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter ?
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell *
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Visual Effects:

“Avengers: Infinity War” ?
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

 

[marty]

I was stunned that Bradley Cooper and Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) were not nominated for director but Spike Lee was. Shows you why I don't play Lotto.

 

[NorthStar]

If historical statistics are in the "stars" (way of speech), that would eliminate ...
- A Star Is Born
- Black Panther
- Green Book
...out of Oscar's contention for Best Picture.

 

[Steve Williams]

Bob

I'm a little surprised at your predictions that you are based on movies you have never seen.

 

[Steve Williams]

I was stunned that Bradley Cooper and Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) were not nominated for director but Spike Lee was. Shows you why I don't play Lotto.

Personally I thought Black Klansman was the best of those 3 movies

 

[NorthStar]

Bob

I'm a little surprised at your predictions that you are based on movies you have never seen.

Steve, you'd be surprised which films and documentaries I've seen and the ones I didn't.
Besides, tell me one person who have seen them all.
And, I still can make predictions. You do make predictions, many of us do, and for all kinds of reasons/preferences/stats and without having seen them all, just like many members of the Academy who actually vote. We have fun, that's what counts.

 

[NorthStar]

Personally I thought Black Klansman was the best of those 3 movies

I agree.

 

[Steve Williams]

IIRC Bob you said you never go to the theater to see a movie but rather wait until it reaches Netflix

No, I cannot speculate on any film I have not seen and there are several this year but apart from those I have seen most of the films this year

 

[NorthStar]

Steve, I make predictions on movies. Do I need to go to the theaters? My thread's title is very clear.
Peace man.

 

[NorthStar]

Out of the 24 categories there are 50 films total, exactly....52
Do I need to have seen them all for giving my predictions. No, I don't.
For you it's different, for me it is what it is.

I've seen only four @ the theaters. I've seen a bunch more on 4K and on Blu-ray.
I've seen few on Netflix, I've rented few more, and I still have a month to get close to that 50.
...Work in progress.

* There are six categories without predictions (one quarter, of 24 total), there are fifteen films that I did not see (one third, of 50 total...52).

EDIT: 52 films total are represented @ the 2019 Oscars.