A Hint of Government Censorship to Come???

[jazdoc]

And, of course there is also the fact that Greece is remarkably ineffective at collecting taxes. This, and any nuanced discussion of the economics of these fragile states, always fails to get mentioned in these conversations. Simple math, staying on message, and throwing in a few of the "socials" -- "social democratic model" and "social welfare states," etc. is much easier than actually dealing with the complexities of the matter. What do you suppose are the odds that trending birthrates and spending on "social" programs don't look that much different in Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan...?

In this simple vision of the world in which there are only generational demographics, evil socialism and perpetual growth, the only solutions are to eliminate all the things, including decent healthcare, that keep the weak alive, or to breed ever larger generations to support extended lifespans and feed unending growth. Always. Until the world explodes from it.

Thank God it's not that simple.

Tim

The math IS as simple as it is undeniable...

Japan is a fascinating sociology experiment because it is a closed society with essentially no immigration. Japan is currently, by far, the oldest population in recorded history and it continues to age rapidly while simultaneously its population falls precipitously. As Daniel Gross wrote in Slate "Japan's population peaked in 2004 at about 127.8 million and is projected to fall to 89.9 million by 2055. The ratio of working-age to elderly Japanese fell from 8-to-1 in 1975 to 3.3-to-1 in 2005 and may shrivel to 1.3-to-1 in 2055. In 2055, people will come to work when they have time off from long-term care," said Kiyoaki Fujiwara, director of economic policy at the Japan Business Federation."

This voluntary population decline is on a par in magnitude and rapidity with the population losses secondary to the Black Death of the Middle Ages. The resultant inverted demographic pyramid, as in Europe, is inherently unstable. But at least Japan possess a homogenous population that shares a common culture.

The situation in Europe is in some ways more interesting....

Germany's birthrate is also ~1.3 with similar long term consequences economic consequences. (http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-779741.html)

As Angela Merkel pointed our in 2009, for Germany an Obama sized stimulus was out of the question simply because its foreign creditors knew that there are not enough young Germans around to ever repay it. (nytimes.com/2009/3/20/world/europe/30merkel.html?hp.)

Sweden's and Switzerland's demographics are only marginally better than Germany's. And like Germany they have a large, unintegrated immigrant populations that, ahem, does not share the Enlightenment philosophy of their adopted countries. It is quite fascinating to contemplate a Germany without Germans and Italy without Italians!

Woody Allen once observed that "half of life is showing up". If so, Western societies are in trouble because there will soon not be enough of them to show up. We live in interesting times....

 

[FrantzM]

Hi

Without being bleak: We are for now travelling through space in a vessel which is a closed system. Its resources are finite and our present economic models suppose infinite growth.. Is this sustainable ? How many more people can we put on this planet before their sheer number depletes it? I do understand the demographic models but a country cannot forever grow within its geographical borders. It doesn't take long with improved health care (I know we are soooo fighting Universal Health in the O' US of A) to very rapidly reach an aging population, with reduced productivity but that does consume resources at a steadily growing rate ...

Back to the subject at hand ,Government censorship ... I do think at times it may be warranted in a world where there are so many capable enemies with little to no restraint. The larger question remains: Who's watching the Watchers? Our political discourse , here in the USA has been reduced to soundbites and garbled into political messages or opinions that pass for "news" . to me an extremely undemocratic, dangerous and disturbing trend ... soooo ..Who's watching the Watchers?

 

[Phelonious Ponk]

The math IS as simple as it is undeniable...

Japan is a fascinating sociology experiment because it is a closed society with essentially no immigration. Japan is currently, by far, the oldest population in recorded history and it continues to age rapidly while simultaneously its population falls precipitously. As Daniel Gross wrote in Slate "Japan's population peaked in 2004 at about 127.8 million and is projected to fall to 89.9 million by 2055. The ratio of working-age to elderly Japanese fell from 8-to-1 in 1975 to 3.3-to-1 in 2005 and may shrivel to 1.3-to-1 in 2055. In 2055, people will come to work when they have time off from long-term care," said Kiyoaki Fujiwara, director of economic policy at the Japan Business Federation."

This voluntary population decline is on a par in magnitude and rapidity with the population losses secondary to the Black Death of the Middle Ages. The resultant inverted demographic pyramid, as in Europe, is inherently unstable. But at least Japan possess a homogenous population that shares a common culture.

The situation in Europe is in some ways more interesting....

Germany's birthrate is also ~1.3 with similar long term consequences economic consequences. (http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-779741.html)

As Angela Merkel pointed our in 2009, for Germany an Obama sized stimulus was out of the question simply because its foreign creditors knew that there are not enough young Germans around to ever repay it. (nytimes.com/2009/3/20/world/europe/30merkel.html?hp.)

Sweden's and Switzerland's demographics are only marginally better than Germany's. And like Germany they have a large, unintegrated immigrant populations that, ahem, does not share the Enlightenment philosophy of their adopted countries. It is quite fascinating to contemplate a Germany without Germans and Italy without Italians!

Woody Allen once observed that "half of life is showing up". If so, Western societies are in trouble because there will soon not be enough of them to show up. We live in interesting times....

The math is simple. The rest of it is not. To reduce the world's future, and current policy to the math of aging populations is grotesquely simplistic, and will lead to no solutions but ones the proponents of such simplistic doomsday math typically reject as rapidly as they insert socialist innuendo -- open borders, broad amnesty, massive immigration.

Tim

 

[Phelonious Ponk]

We live in interesting times in which we need to sacrifice through to reduced populations and a sustainable model. It's highly unlikely we will do that, though. We are much more likely to continue to push the perpetual growth model to short-term gains and long-term disaster. Interesting times, indeed.

Tim

 

[A.wayne]

This kind of stuff gets scary when it passes constitutional muster, and not a moment sooner. Conspiracy theories aside, the founders put together a pretty good system to keep the government out of our private affairs. Where they may have failed, or so it seems in this age, is in keeping private interests out of government. It is interesting, to me, that there is almost always outcry, even over just the remote possibility of future loss of personal liberty, while special interests have taken our representative democracy away from us with hardly a whisper of protest.

Strange, this American sense of freedom.

Tim

This is there agenda Tim , moving us from a Republic to that of a democracy , where rule of the frightened and controlled majority rules ..

Democratic Socialism ....!!!

Regards ,

 

[Phelonious Ponk]

This is there agenda Tim , moving us from a Republic to that of a democracy , where rule of the frightened and controlled majority rules ..

Democratic Socialism ....!!!

Regards ,

Democratic Socialism? Is that the hybrid of markets and government that rules, in various blends, every first world country on the planet, including our own? We have more market and less government than most. We cry out for even more of the same. But if what is required to make it through the ageing population crisis, the global financial crisis, the global climate crisis (and the coming food supply crisis), through to a balanced, sustainable model is more regulaton and less market freedom, so be it. That balance will never be achieved by markets that are driven entirely by growth measured in short-term gains. All they will ever do is consume; they will demand growth until they've outgrown the ultimate market; earth. It's not their fault. They are not immoral. They are ammoral. It is just the way the system is built, and it must be reformed.

Not to endulge in the ultimate gloom but, while I'm a capitalist and I fully appreciate what free markets do for growing economies/nations, I believe the mature world, the first world, must learn to decrease the power and influence of the markets and find sustainable economic models, or sit back and watch the markets bring us down.

Tim

PS: This thread really needs one of these: If not a hug.

 

[A.wayne]

Democratic socialism would not work here and believe me you want nothing of it ....

 

[Randy Bessinger]

I just want to be happy like the Danes.