Are CDs dying out in the market place?

[naturephoto1]

The problem with that is that many of us play CD/SACD/DVD-A through DVD players or Blu-ray players and also run the CD through separate DACS and utilize the multi format players as just a transport for things such as Redbook CD playback. Additionally, many of us have digital and vinyl playback systems that are a number of years old and we only purchase them on occasion though we continue to buy our various forms of media on an ongoing basis.

Rich

 

[Alan Sircom]

The problem with that is that many of us play CD/SACD/DVD-A through DVD players or Blu-ray players and also run the CD through separate DACS and utilize the multi format players as just a transport for things such as Redbook CD playback. Additionally, many of us have digital and vinyl playback systems that are a number of years old and we only purchase them on occasion though we continue to buy our various forms of media on an ongoing basis.

Rich

True, but CD and stereo amp sales have both been in a slow, but similar, decline for some time, but over the last couple of years CD player sales went from losing a few percent per year, to losing 30% per year. Meanwhile stereo amps continued going in a steady decline. Also, until recently sales volume and value were both on track, but recently CD player sales volume is down while value is up. This suggests people spending more to buy their 'last, best player', in the way people started talking about 'final vinyl' 10-12 years ago.

The 'play it on DVD' market is not statistically negligible, but is easy to track because after DVD came about, CD sales took a dip, and stayed dipped. In other words, where there was near parity between CD and amp sales up until 1997/98 season, after that time and until about two years ago, for every 10 amps sold, there were eight CD player sales. It's now closer to two amps for every player, and dropping. Market research at point of sale does not point to people still using CD and playing it on other components, either, because the same point of sale data points to people walking out of the shop with an amp under one arm and a 'media gateway' device (usually a Sonos) under the other.

The 'we only buy occasionally' point doesn't really matter, here. Or rather, it doesn't really count in this discussion, but highlights another significant OT problem or two. The audio business does a very good job at making things that don't have planned obsolescence, (usually) don't fall to pieces after two years and (usually) hold their value relatively well in the long term. The problem then emerges that a company's legacy quickly becomes its greatest competition; if there are not so many new buyers and the old buyers are happy to trade products from 10 years ago between themselves, your business becomes unsustainable. Where this draws back on topic, is when a sector is in steep decline if those who still have an interest in that sector don't make that interest felt (by buying stuff) it stands a strong chance of disappearing altogether. This is kind of what's happening to Mom & Pop stores; they aren't all run by evil, money-grabbing despots (despite the claims of some online) and yet because when they do their job well, their original clients don't come back that often. Without newcomers to sell to, even the best store quickly becomes an ex-store.

 

[mep]

Bill-You are the one that posted info from someone else in my digital thread that I started to show that LPs sales are so low they basically don't count in the grand scheme of things:

some comments by Andrew Rose on the rec.music.classical.recordings newsgroup in a thread titled "Decline of CD?":

"Not in a million years - this so-called [LP] revival is largely being driven
by DJs and the nostalgia market. A global total of 2.8 million LPs sold
in 2010 (if true - all sorts of figures get bandied about without source
reference) is a ridiculously minute number - Michael Jackson's album
Thriller alone has sold in total well over 50m copies since its release
and I'd like to bet that of these perhaps 28m or so were on vinyl, which
perhaps puts this into some kind of perspective - that's a single album
selling 10 times as many vinyl copies back in the day than an entire
year's worth of black plastic today.
Or perhaps try some more big sales figures before getting too excited
about the LP: Apple expect to ship around 40 million pricey iPads this
year, and passed the 10 billion downloads mark for iTunes over a year
ago - that's after just six years in operation. Even little ole Pristine
sold over 10,000 albums last year in CD and download forms.
Sorry, but nostalgics and sadly misguided audiophiles aside, the LP is
dead and buried. It's a deeply flawed product in so many ways, based on
long-redundant 1890s technology, and one that should be allowed to rest
in peace or in a museum. Bill

As you can see, I am not the one that introduced analog into this discussion my friend. Go back and reread what my original post was. It was about CDs dying out as a physical medium based on what I saw when I went out to the stores to purchase a CD. You chose to turn around the discussion by posting very negative comments from someone else about analog which I responded to. So I guess I should act like you now and say my nose is out of joint, I’m offended, and you owe me an apology for trashing analog in a thread I started to discuss digital and trying to flip the tables and say I started it. But really Bill, I don’t care, I’m not offended, and I don’t want an apology. I just want you to get your facts straight before you try and lay a guilt trip on me.

 

[caesar]

If those pressing plants keep going and work at full capacity, and CD continues to drop sales at current rate, LP sales should eclipse CD in a little over 50 years.

With all due respect, it is very difficult to forecast something as fast moving as technology for 3 years into the future, let alone 50 years. If you look back 50 years ago, the predictions were either too aggressive such as the Jetsons society and humans being slaves to robots or extremely timid. In 1958, Tom Watson, the founder of IBM, famously said "I think there is a world market for about five computers."

The only assumptions I am comfortable making about technology 50 years from now are that people will continue to value convenience, computers will get smaller and smaller, and storage space will continue to become cheaper and cheaper. I am optimistic that someone will come up with an algorithm to convert vinyl's euphonic distortions and present the "vinyl sonic signature" as an option to every listener.

 

[mep]

Alan's statement is very disingenuous because CDs won't be made 50 years from now. I predict that within 10 years or less that new cars will not be available with CD players. They will go the way of 8-track and cassette players. There simply won't be a need for CD players in cars and one can argue that the day that CD players aren't needed in new cars is already here. I've said it before, but my 2011 Ford Edge came with two USB ports and an SD card slot. Who needs a CD player when you have those input choices? But sure, my Edge still has a CD player because it's supposed to and people expect it.

 

[Old Listener]

sales figures are relevant to the thread

As you can see, I am not the one that introduced analog into this discussion my friend....
You chose to turn around the discussion by posting very negative comments from someone else about analog which I responded to.
...
So I guess I should act like you now and say my nose is out of joint, I’m offended, and you owe me an apology for trashing analog in a thread I started to discuss digital and trying to flip the tables and say I started it.

You titled the thread "Are CDs dying out in the marketplace?" You also said in this thread "CDs are dying out and vinyl is not."

Sales figures for CDs and for LPs are relevant to this thread. You can call such information "negative comments...about analog" and "Trashing analog" but it is just a reality you find unacceptable.

> You are the one that posted info from someone else in my digital thread that I started to show
> that LPs sales are so low they basically don't count in the grand scheme of things:

Do you dispute that LPs sales are a tiny fraction of CD sales?

> I just want you to get your facts straight before you try and lay a guilt trip on me.

Stop labeling other people as "analog haters" and you won't get called on it.

Bill

 

[mep]

Bill-Here is the quote from your response that prompted me to use the words “analog haters”:
1. Sorry, but nostalgics and sadly misguided audiophiles aside, the LP is
dead and buried. It's a deeply flawed product in so many ways, based on
long-redundant 1890s technology, and one that should be allowed to rest
in peace or in a museum. Bill


Read the words my friend, they speak for themselves. If the guy you quoted doesn’t hate analog, someone is mistaken and it’s not me. So if the label fits, wear it with pride. You were just all too happy to post the quote so you have to take ownership of it.

As for do I dispute that LP sales are a tiny fraction of CD sales. No, of course I don’t dispute the figures. It’s all true and I know that. I just think it’s funny that you posted an anti-analog rant from someone in my digital thread and now you want to “call me on it” because I spoke the truth about the nature of what you posted. Ironic isn’t it? I’m a misguided audiophile who likes a deeply flawed product based on long-redundant 1890s technology that should be allowed to rest in peace or in a museum and I shouldn’t think that the person who wrote those words isn’t an analog hater. Strong words don’t you think Bill?

 

[andy_c]

Going back to the original post of this thread:

Which leads me to my point: Are big box stores giving up on allocating space to sell CDs because they just aren't selling very well due to downloads? Maybe Best Buy or Target would have had it, but I lost my confidence after 3 stops. Maybe this has been going on for awhile and I just haven't recognized it because I hardly ever shop for CDs. Any thoughts?

I think there's several factors in play. CD sales are declining in general, and also the online CD sellers like Amazon have both a better selection and better prices than the brick and mortar stores. With Amazon, shipping is free if you buy more than 25 bucks worth of CDs, so that's not a consideration. Deep Discount has free shipping even if you buy only one CD, and their prices tend to be a bit better than Amazon, though their selection isn't as good.

I buy a fair number of CDs, but frankly I haven't bought any CDs from brick and mortar stores in about 6 or 7 years. The reason is pricing. The last CDs I bought from a brick and mortar store were when Borders had a "4 for the price of 3" sale. Even then, their list prices for CDs on the Impulse label were about 17 or 18 bucks I think. That's still too much. But the Blue Note RVGs listed for 12 bucks, so I grabbed them up like gangbusters, basically paying 9 bucks each with the "4 for the price of 3" deal. But they stopped having those deals, so I stopped coming back.

CD sales are declining, but I hope they're not dying out. I don't actually play the CDs, just rip them to my server. But I like to have the media as a "backup of last resort". Plus I don't completely trust the record companies to not screw up the file-based downloads somehow. Lossless downloads are not widely available and not competitively priced compared to CD online purchases, so I never buy them.

 

[mep]

Andy-Thanks for getting this thread back on track. I started this thread to understand if what I was seeing in my small town was the same as other people who live in big cities are seeing. My question has been answered and indeed, CDs are becoming scarce in brick and mortar stores. Like you, I hope that if CDs do die out (and they will), that what replaces them will be at least at the resolution of the CDs they are replacing. I for one won't pay money to download MP3 digital.

 

[DonH50]

Hopefully, if the world moves to downloads, high-resolution and/or lossless formats will dominate, or at least widely-available. We could even hope that lowering production costs will make audio DVDs worthwhile, though much of the available capacity may be wasted.

 

[Old Listener]

Bill-Here is the quote from your response that prompted me to use the words “analog haters”:
1. Sorry, but nostalgics and sadly misguided audiophiles aside, the LP is
dead and buried. It's a deeply flawed product in so many ways, based on
long-redundant 1890s technology, and one that should be allowed to rest
in peace or in a museum. Bill
...
As for do I dispute that LP sales are a tiny fraction of CD sales. No, of course I don’t dispute the figures. It’s all true and I know that. I just think it’s funny that you posted an anti-analog rant from someone in my digital thread and now you want to “call me on it” because I spoke the truth about the nature of what you posted. Ironic isn’t it? I’m a misguided audiophile who likes a deeply flawed product based on long-redundant 1890s technology that should be allowed to rest in peace or in a museum and I shouldn’t think that the person who wrote those words isn’t an analog hater. Strong words don’t you think Bill?

I provided the quote and the links for the information about sales figures. Rose provided figures and comparisons before stating his conclusion about LPs. He then went on to discuss CD sales. I quoted Rose's discussion as a whole because it contained relevant sales figures and discussion of them. I did not comment on any particular item.

> Read the words my friend, they speak for themselves.

Rose expressed his opinion about sales of LPs and about analog technology. That doesn't make him a "hater" of anything.

> If the guy you quoted doesn’t hate analog, someone is mistaken and it’s not me. So if the label fits,
> wear it with pride. You were just all too happy to post the quote so you have to take ownership
> of it.

Apparently, it is unacceptable to you to read opinions that you don't agree with. In labeling people you disagree with as haters, you distort what they say and defame them.

A number of people have remarked on your mis-quoting them and mis-characterizing them in earlier posts. You said in a post a few days ago that you had received additional private messages reprimanding you. You might pay attention to the reaction that others have to your posts.

Bill

 

[mep]

OK Bill. It's all my fault and you are right. The guy you quoted didn't say anything inflammatory about analog. I just dreamed it all up. My apologies Bill.

 

[Old Listener]

CD sales are declining in general, and also the online CD sellers like Amazon have both a better selection and better prices than the brick and mortar stores.
...
I buy a fair number of CDs, but frankly I haven't bought any CDs from brick and mortar stores in about 6 or 7 years. The reason is pricing.
...
CD sales are declining, but I hope they're not dying out. I don't actually play the CDs, just rip them to my server. But I like to have the media as a "backup of last resort".
...
Lossless downloads are not widely available and not competitively priced compared to CD online purchases, so I never buy them.

My experience is parallel to yours. I've been buying CDs at a great rate for years. I have already bought the music that is of greatest value to me. I'm filling in the gaps and trying things that may be of interest or may not. At any one time, I am interested in a dozen or so CDs and not interested in anything else. Flipping through bins takes too much time and the very specific things I want are rarely present. After I've identified what I want to buy, I look for it on Amazon, Berkshire Record Outlet, ArkivMusic or some other online source. Cheapest source first.

Bill

 

[andy_c]

Like you, I hope that if CDs do die out (and they will), that what replaces them will be at least at the resolution of the CDs they are replacing. I for one won't pay money to download MP3 digital.

I won't either. But I hope that CDs don't die out anytime soon. I am very happy with the status quo of good selection and good prices at online sellers. As this continues, the AccurateRip database starts to get populated with more and more relatively obscure titles, making it even easier to verify the integrity of rips.

It seems that the download market is either MP3, which I won't buy, or high-res at ripoff audiophile prices. Buying the CDs online and ripping them is for me the ideal middle ground.

 

[Alan Sircom]

Alan's statement is very disingenuous because CDs won't be made 50 years from now. I predict that within 10 years or less that new cars will not be available with CD players. They will go the way of 8-track and cassette players. There simply won't be a need for CD players in cars and one can argue that the day that CD players aren't needed in new cars is already here. I've said it before, but my 2011 Ford Edge came with two USB ports and an SD card slot. Who needs a CD player when you have those input choices? But sure, my Edge still has a CD player because it's supposed to and people expect it.

My point about LP eclipsing CD in 50 years was an indication of just how many CDs are currently sold - and the amount CDs sales are dropping - against the maximum capacity of current pressing plants. At current rates of decline in CD, it will still take decades before the numbers are down to the numbers the surviving pressing plants can produce. The chances of it being 50+ years in reality is slim. In fact, my take on this is neither CD or LP will be in any kind of significant production a decade from now. The cost of making polycarbonate disc blanks is prohibitive if the numbers aren't significant enough and those surviving pressing plants are already decades beyond their operating life expectancy. Apathy and entropy will kill off physical formats.

 

[LL21]

I think this thread has emphasized for me (even more than before) that the markets (as usual) price things high and low...and sometimes incorrectly. From an audiophile standpoint, i am seeing other members take advantage of the fact that CDs are just plain cheap and (certainly for a wide selection of music) offer the best quality available. (i also will not download an mp3 file). I have now purchased 150 CDs in the last 45 days from Amazon at an average price of 3 bucks or lower with free shipping or shipping incl...including many SACDs, remasters from Classical, Jazz, Blues, even rap, deep house...in some cases rare albums that were never available in all the years i had looked in a store. These are albums i had always wanted but just never wanted to/could not justify paying 8-20 bucks for each.

i expect over the next 6-12 months, i probably will "fill in" my music collection with another 150 albums or so...but for now the initial wave of collection buying has stabilized. I suspect CDs are not disappearing that quickly! And then, let the format wars (hi-res, mp3, sacd, blu-ray) and transport v server wars settle down a bit...i am happy to listen to my music while i wait!

 

[caesar]

I think this thread has emphasized for me (even more than before) that the markets (as usual) price things high and low...and sometimes incorrectly. From an audiophile standpoint, i am seeing other members take advantage of the fact that CDs are just plain cheap and (certainly for a wide selection of music) offer the best quality available. (i also will not download an mp3 file). I have now purchased 150 CDs in the last 45 days from Amazon at an average price of 3 bucks or lower with free shipping or shipping incl...including many SACDs, remasters from Classical, Jazz, Blues, even rap, deep house...in some cases rare albums that were never available in all the years i had looked in a store. These are albums i had always wanted but just never wanted to/could not justify paying 8-20 bucks for each.

i expect over the next 6-12 months, i probably will "fill in" my music collection with another 150 albums or so...but for now the initial wave of collection buying has stabilized. I suspect CDs are not disappearing that quickly! And then, let the format wars (hi-res, mp3, sacd, blu-ray) and transport v server wars settle down a bit...i am happy to listen to my music while i wait!

What you are describing here is why Amazon has been so successful. Amazon has discovered that they can sell products in low demand or that have a low sales volume. In sum, these products can collectively make up a market share that rivals or exceeds the relatively few current bestsellers. An Amazon employee described this as follows: "We sold more books today that didn't sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday." Independent studies have shown that a significant portion of Amazon.com's sales do come from obscure books and cd's that are not available in brick-and-mortar stores, as MEP has observed at the start of the thread.

 

[LL21]

Great!!! i think that if this is the case, then that is very good news for audiophiles looking for relatively inexpensive CD-quality music for a good while to come. i just picked up a bunch of Penguin Rosette winners of CPE Bach, Geminani, Corelli late last nite...stuff i managed to listen to online on the Amazon site after reading about it and hearing some on BBC radio while working late. i paid a couple bucks per CD. and i am wishlisting a few others that are full priced at the moment. i just received Mercury Living Presence Bach Cello Suites by Starker...on SACD...whew!..tough to find and paid thru the nose for it...but still relatively inexpensive compared to others who have probably paid close to $100 for the SACD version.