For what it's Worth-Tesla

Mike Lavigne

Member Sponsor & WBF Founding Member
Apr 25, 2010
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#41
I see the most value in EVs as short-range city cars. That's what I want but the closest to that is a Leaf and they are still nearly $40k before rebates!

I might just get a used one with a diminished battery for next to nothing, a 50 mile range is enough for most days. This is what the Leaf gets right, imo... One Tesla contains enough battery and motor to make several Leafs. Their cost new and the inferior batteries are the big issues, but used ones get cheap quick!
we sell 2-3 used Nissan Leaf's a month for $10k-$12k. these are 2-4 years old. they are glorified golf carts with a body.

but for a 30-50 mile daily commuter car they fit the bill.

that's what an electric car for the masses looks like. and i can tell you that is why Honda is committed to Hybrids for another 10 years. electrics don't pencil at volume market prices without heavy legislative support. which is not something they can count on.

would you bet your company on a political outcome? i'm debriefed every year by Honda's D.C. lobbyist on this subject, and it's a sticky wicket. unlikely there will be more Tax Credits coming for electrics; there is just not enough push from any direction for it from constituents. so congress has no will to make it happen.

the Chinese and Northern European political models don't apply here. the government does not own companies or sit on Board's of Directors.
 
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Steve Williams

Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
#42
BYND meat was a $15B company last year - what's it now?
Keith you want to have it both ways I said that in present market conditions I would be taking profit off the table and using it again when the stock falls

im sure Honda outsells as you state. I was not trying to play Orange County-ish but my point was missed and/ or rejected.

This would be the time to take money off the table.
As for Beyond Meat if you had done the same you could have easily pulled money off the table. This is far from OCish but rather riding a wave and profit taking is the American way
 

Mike Lavigne

Member Sponsor & WBF Founding Member
Apr 25, 2010
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#43
Keith you want to have it both ways I said that in present market conditions I would be taking profit off the table and using it again when the stock falls

im sure Honda outsells as you state. I was not trying to play Orange County-ish but my point was missed and/ or rejected.

This would be the time to take money off the table.
As for Beyond Meat if you had done the same you could have easily pulled money off the table. This is far from OCish but rather riding a wave and profit taking is the American way
my only issue Steve, was your repeated response using market cap as the decider of right and wrong.....how things will play out in the future in the bigger picture. which for me assumes Wall Street love for a stock translates broadly into the scheme of things for an entire industry.

and i do get that for some it is the end all and be all.

if the shoe fits, wear it. it's your prism on the world from where you sit.
 
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Steve Williams

Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
#44
my only issue Steve, was your repeated response using market cap as the decider of right and wrong.....how things will play out in the future in the bigger picture. which for me assumes Wall Street love for a stock translates broadly into the scheme of things for an entire industry.

and i do get that for some it is the end all and be all.

if the shoe fits, wear it. it's your prism on the world from where you sit.
Mike

again, rightly or wrongly Tesla is where its at for whatever reasons. you can debate all of those. I totally agree about P/E .I'll say again, this is where it would be a good time to consider some profit taking. I understand your point but you missed mine. No problem
 

DaveC

Industry Expert
Nov 16, 2014
3,127
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#45
we sell 2-3 used Nissan Leaf's a month for $10k-$12k. these are 2-4 years old. they are glorified golf carts with a body.

but for a 30-50 mile daily commuter car they fit the bill.
Under $10k would be good... Trips would be all under 50 miles easy, many in the 2-5 mile range. So I won't put a ton of mileage on it, but it'll be a good alternative to firing up the 6.2L motor in the Camaro to go get some dinner a mile or two away.



As far as EVs in general, I also recently saw a promising battery tech 5x more energy dense, cheaper and greener vs Li ion, it seems we're close to some new battery tech that will make the case for EVs much stronger.

https://www.pinkbike.com/news/new-l...ld-be-cheaper-greener-and-more-efficient.html
 
Feb 8, 2011
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#46
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KeithR

VIP/Donor
May 7, 2010
4,237
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Marina del Rey, CA
#47
Tomorrow I start a 2,500 mile journey through the southwest - this is rather difficult in an EV as charging stations take too long. As Dave C said, I find EVs more city commuters. Rural areas dont gravitate to them at all and is one reason sales aren’t good.
 

Ron Resnick

Site Co-Owner, Administrator
Jan 25, 2015
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Beverly Hills, CA
#48
I concede at the outset that I don't understand the merits of hybrids. I understand ICE; I understand EV.

What is the point of combining in one vehicle the onboard complexities of two propulsion technologies? (Maybe a little bit analogous to why I don’t see the point of mastering digital recordings to vinyl.)
 

Ron Resnick

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Jan 25, 2015
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#49
The acceleration capability of high-power EVs sells me on them as sports cars and GTs.

The only thing I would replace my SL with is a version of a Taycan with only two doors, only two seats, a retractable hard-top and the same interior space and trunk space as the SL. In other words I would prefer an EV SL to the ICE SL.
 

Steve Williams

Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
#50
The acceleration capability of high-power EVs sells me on them as sports cars and GTs.

The only thing I would replace my SL with is a version of a Taycan with only two doors, only two seats, a retractable hard-top and the same interior space and trunk space as the SL. In other words I would prefer an EV SL to the ICE SL.
not me Ron

The battery in the Taycan is a mere midget to the Tesla Model S which has almost double the range

https://www.engadget.com/2020/01/15/porsche-taycan-turbo-s-epa-rating/
 

Ron Resnick

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Jan 25, 2015
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#51

Mike Lavigne

Member Sponsor & WBF Founding Member
Apr 25, 2010
8,869
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#52
I concede at the outset that I don't understand the merits of hybrids. I understand ICE; I understand EV.

What is the point of combining in one vehicle the onboard complexities of two propulsion technologies? (Maybe a little bit analogous to why I don’t see the point of mastering digital recordings to vinyl.)
(1) the issue here is the enormous cost of making a stand alone all electric vehicle. a new ICE model costs 2-4 Billion (with a B) dollars to develop. and all electric is more even.

(2) normally with say a Civic or CRV, or Pilot; that cost is amortized over 1 to 1.5 million vehicles. ICE models have full changes every 3-5 years with development times 3-4 years. if you look at luxury brands all these numbers scale differently, but the logic is the same.

(3) adding a hybrid variant might add a few hundred million to the development cost of that model cycle....and can use existing platforms.

(4) an electric vehicle might only sell 100,000-300,00 over it's longer lifetime. but with the same development cost. so you have to charge much more, and it's still a significant loser. this is why you are not going to see platform changes in Tesla models for a loooong time. plenty of software changes though. it won't pencil to recover the costs. selling direct for Tesla does help with this......as long as they have a pop culture advantage (they are cool:cool:). if that ever is lost then it's free fall time (reality will hit that market cap very hard).

(5) the additional cost of the hybrid is recovered and might even be profitable. and the marketplace will buy many more since it's more workable, the hybrid premium likely $1500-$3000 for volume models, and not limited in range. and it won't bankrupt the company. it's safe and does not rely on unpredictable legislative relief or risky retained values at end of leases.

(6) certain markets like Hybrids and it solves CAFE issue and state carbon credit requirements. plug in hybrids can be used as all electric commuter cars.

moral of the story; for the REAL WORLD, not Orange County, Hybrids are where we are mostly for the next 10 years or so until some sort of technology breakthrough happens or the world ends.

i realize common sense is just not that common.
 
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Ron Resnick

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Jan 25, 2015
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#53
Thank you, Mike.
 

Steve Williams

Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
#54

Steve Williams

Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
#55
(1) the issue here is the enormous cost of making a stand alone all electric vehicle. a new ICE model costs 2-4 Billion (with a B) dollars to develop. and all electric is more even.

(2) normally with say a Civic or CRV, or Pilot; that cost is amortized over 1 to 1.5 million vehicles. ICE models have full changes every 3-5 years with development times 3-4 years. if you look at luxury brands all these numbers scale differently, but the logic is the same.

(3) adding a hybrid variant might add a few hundred million to the development cost of that model cycle....and can use existing platforms.

(4) an electric vehicle might only sell 100,000-300,00 over it's longer lifetime. but with the same development cost. so you have to charge much more, and it's still a significant loser. this is why you are not going to see platform changes in Tesla models for a loooong time. plenty of software changes though. it won't pencil to recover the costs. selling direct for Tesla does help with this......as long as they have a pop culture advantage (they are cool:cool:). if that ever is lost then it's free fall time (reality will hit that market cap very hard).

(5) the additional cost of the hybrid is recovered and might even be profitable. and the marketplace will buy many more since it's more workable, the hybrid premium likely $1500-$3000 for volume models, and not limited in range. and it won't bankrupt the company. it's safe and does not rely on unpredictable legislative relief or risky retained values at end of leases.

(6) certain markets like Hybrids and it solves CAFE issue and state carbon credit requirements. plug in hybrids can be used as all electric commuter cars.

moral of the story; for the REAL WORLD, not Orange County, Hybrids are where we are mostly for the next 10 years or so until some sort of technology breakthrough happens or the world ends.

i realize common sense is just not that common.
Mike

If i am not mistaken Honda IMO is one auto company that changes their body styles frequently''What you fail to understand is thatTesla owners don't give a rat's a$$ about a body style that hasn't changed in years. It' all about performance and saving money hence automatic updates

FWIW your innuendos about Orange County are wearing thin Mike. There's nothing here that "YOU" yourself do anything differently so give me a break for posting my comments. I feel you are blinded by the facts Mike and I am not even an EV owner but I can see the trees for the forest. Someone suggested yesterday that Honda's short vision might leave them at the starting line wondering how they are ever going to catch up


Quite honestly a company such as Honda that commonly makes body changes so frequently, puzzles me that they feel this is a smarter option rather than working on development of the EV like virtually every other auto company
 

Mike Lavigne

Member Sponsor & WBF Founding Member
Apr 25, 2010
8,869
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#56
Steve,

what does 'blinded by the facts' mean? :rolleyes:

hummmm.

and my 'OC' comments will stop when 'market cap' implications and EV views become more fact based.

it's like Hollywood and that world view.

as far as Honda and body style changes do you really want me to even respond?
 

Joe Whip

Well-Known Member
Feb 8, 2014
1,235
90
270
Wayne, PA
#57
Mike, I am sorry but your last long post proves that common sense is not all that common. Looks like Honda will be the next Kodak. I have yet to to give a test drive in my 3 where people of all socioeconomic backgrounds didn’t lI’ve it. Several bought one, one even traded in his Civic.
 
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Steve Williams

Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
#60
interesting the stock is down 10% since this thread started :p

on heavy volume as well- ring the register!
Precisely why I said days ago I would be taking profit off the table. Economics 101
 
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