For what it's Worth-Tesla

Mike Lavigne

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Apr 25, 2010
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#21
Actually Joe, EV’s have become the present and not the future
in Orange County and King County that is certainly true. but less than 10% of the overall market is not any definition of dominant. in 10 more years it might hit 30%. that is still not dominant.
 

Mike Lavigne

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Apr 25, 2010
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#22
So are electrical outlets. In a few years, the same will be true with superchargers, either Tesla, Electrify America and others. Rome was not built in a day. It took a good while for gas stations to show up too at the turn of the 20th Century.
with a Tesla what does a 110v outlet do for you? besides allow you to plug in your shaver.
 

Steve Williams

Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
#25
with a Tesla what does a 110v outlet do for you? besides allow you to plug in your shaver.
Well it’s not a 110 charger

there must be a lot of users then in these two counties. The stock today was almost $550 per share There is something to be said for Tesla to be worth more than Ford and GM combined.
 

Mike Lavigne

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Apr 25, 2010
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#26
Well it’s not a 110 charger

there must be a lot of users then in these two counties. The stock today was almost $550 per share There is something to be said for Tesla to be worth more than Ford and GM combined.
Tesla is a Wall Street darling. and lots of positive things are happening with it. those are facts.

what are the underlying fundamentals of the company?

how far are we from overall Electric Car market significance in this country?

questions.

Honda feels that all electric is not a good bet for the next 10 years at least. it's not a reasonable return on investment. they are betting on hybrid technology as more main market workable. they cannot invest billions with a 'B' on a hunch.

in China (and other countries) all electric is legislated into reality. the USA has decided not to extend the tax credit.

time will tell how it all goes.
 
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Mike Lavigne

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#27
up till now the all electrics have been driven forward in this country by the Federal $7500 tax credit applied to leases reducing the monthly payment by $208 per month on a 36 month lease.

that is now gone for most of the main all electrics. we have to see how that changes things. it might not. but it might.
 

Joe Whip

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Feb 8, 2014
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Wayne, PA
#28
The tax credit is taken on your tax return, not from the lease or purchase price. If you don’t owe as much as the tax credit in taxes, you don’t get the full benefit of it at all. Furthermore, for the past 6 months the credit for a Tesla was $1,875 not $7,500. Seems to me there was little to no effect on Tesla sales. Keep trying.
 

Mike Lavigne

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#29
The tax credit is taken on your tax return, not from the lease or purchase price. If you don’t owe as much as the tax credit in taxes, you don’t get the full benefit of it at all. Furthermore, for the past 6 months the credit for a Tesla was $1,875 not $7,500. Seems to me there was little to no effect on Tesla sales. Keep trying.
Not how it works with a lease. The leasing company is the buyer so earns the tax credit, which then is applied to the depreciation.

Agree that most recent Tesla buyers only got $1875 tax credit. We won’t know for awhile whether that going away makes a difference.

The tax credit issue will be most telling when new electric cars enter the market with the tax credit and earlier entries don’t have it.

Might that move the market?
 

Mike Lavigne

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#31

Joe Whip

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Feb 8, 2014
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#32
It might move the market or might not. If buyers find the product compelling enough, it will have little effect. It is also possible that if the current president loses in November, the tax credit will be back for all manufactures. We will see. We will also see how things work out for Honda in 10 years. They will not be able to turn on a dime if I am right and they have miscalculated. As for leases, I would think that the number of Model 3 leases is rather low and the majority of the sales were individual purchases. I am sure that will be clarified at the upcoming earnings call.
 
Feb 8, 2011
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#33
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KeithR

VIP/Donor
May 7, 2010
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Marina del Rey, CA
#34
in Orange County and King County that is certainly true. but less than 10% of the overall market is not any definition of dominant. in 10 more years it might hit 30%. that is still not dominant.
more like < 2% last time i checked. hybrids never got above 4% even when oil was $140.

looking at all the big EVs outside of TSLA M3, they completely stink. Total EV sales were down last year to only 308k vehicles. That's around 50 models!

i believe the Honda CRV outsells the entire EV market, but Mike can correct me.
 

Mike Lavigne

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Apr 25, 2010
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#36
more like < 2% last time i checked. hybrids never got above 4% even when oil was $140.

looking at all the big EVs outside of TSLA M3, they completely stink. Total EV sales were down last year to only 308k vehicles. That's around 50 models!

i believe the Honda CRV outsells the entire EV market, but Mike can correct me.
for 2020 in the US about 375,000-400,000 Honda CRV's.....which will now include a Hybrid CRV starting in Q2.

and Honda will make more real money just on those CRV's than Tesla ever will operationally. Wall Street be damned.

total electrics in the USA are around that number. maybe slightly more overall.

in some blue blood pockets electrics may look dominant. it's a 1%'r phenomena. if you never venture out into the great unwashed masses how would you not think it's a new world.

johnny paycheck is not buying an electric. anytime. soon. hybrid maybe, and more hybrids as we go along. that is real.

those $99 per month Nissan Leaf leases underwritten by the $7500 tax credit did get real people into those sh*t boxes. but the $35k Leaf became a $8000-$10,000 used car 2 years later, and the tax credit is gone. Nissan is in the toilet. those Leaf leases killed them.

lesson learned. can't legislate technology breakthroughs. the market has to do it.

16.5-17 million cars will get sold this year. a few hundred thousand electrics. left and right coast blue states mostly.
 
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Joe Whip

Well-Known Member
Feb 8, 2014
1,235
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Wayne, PA
#37
The Nissan Leaf is crap. I would never buy one. Nissan is what happens with half assed EV designs. Tesla is a whole different ballgame. When the Tesla level of performance is available under $25k, look out. I love how legacy car makers thought EVs would be easy. Ha. Sure. Let’s think back to cell phones in the early 2000’s. Many poo pooed the iPhone, no keyboard, too expensive. How did that work out. Everyone wanted one or the Android version. Rich, poor and in between. I have traveled all over the world. I see these phones everywhere even in the poorest of areas in places like Mumbai, Cairo. Everywhere. Go there, try to breathe the shit air people have to breathe there. The same thing that happened with phones will happen with EVs. Necessity will require it. keep your head buried in the sand while the rest of the world passes by. See me in 10 years.
 
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DaveC

Industry Expert
Nov 16, 2014
3,127
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#38
I see the most value in EVs as short-range city cars. That's what I want but the closest to that is a Leaf and they are still nearly $40k before rebates!

I might just get a used one with a diminished battery for next to nothing, a 50 mile range is enough for most days. This is what the Leaf gets right, imo... One Tesla contains enough battery and motor to make several Leafs. Their cost new and the inferior batteries are the big issues, but used ones get cheap quick!
 
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Bruce B

WBF Founding Member, Pro Audio Production Member
Apr 26, 2010
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Seattle, WA
www.pugetsoundstudios.com
#39
most current model Honda's have telemetrics which do that too, as well as remind customers for service. they only need to opt into that service. some of those updates only happen when they encounter the wifi of a Honda dealership on the service lane. this is the direction of things even at the entry level of cars.
yeah.... my Mercedes does this too. Even the wife's Subaru... no big deal.
 

Mike Lavigne

Member Sponsor & WBF Founding Member
Apr 25, 2010
8,869
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#40
The Nissan Leaf is crap. I would never buy one. Nissan is what happens with half assed EV designs. Tesla is a whole different ballgame. When the Tesla level of performance is available under $25k, look out. I love how legacy car makers thought EVs would be easy. Ha. Sure. Let’s think back to cell phones in the early 2000’s. Many poo pooed the iPhone, no keyboard, too expensive. How did that work out. Everyone wanted one or the Android version. Rich, poor and in between. I have traveled all over the world. I see these phones everywhere even in the poorest of areas in places like Mumbai, Cairo. Everywhere. Go there, try to breathe the shit air people have to breathe there. The same thing that happened with phones will happen with EVs. Necessity will require it. keep your head buried in the sand while the rest of the world passes by. See me in 10 years.
Joe,

honestly i'm not dissing Tesla. it's amazing. it's real. and i respect Tesla lovers. my own market is where Tesla is the clear King. but it's very very local in it's dominance.

OTOH getting in a lather about the stock price or seeing some sort of epic future view is not reasonable. that's my take.

it's the implications of Tesla where we diverge. there are so many different possibilities about it.
 

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