If people are selling into this decline, part is desperation and part is due to some more certainty about expected economic growth than before. The lucky ones are those who will still have cash when it's over. Buy late sell early.
What's going on with the US stock market lately?
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Unless the Chinese government takes drastic measures to maintain *reasonable* growth, the perceived China-problem is here to pester the markets. Looking at the various Chinese-economy growth forecasts over the next few years, e.g. http://knoema.com/loqqwx/china-gdp-growth-forecast-2015-2020-and-up-to-2060-data-and-charts , the projected downward trend isn't going to help us those invested in the market. Though the projected growth in 2015 is still around 7% and much more than the rest of the world, the worldwide market reaction clearly indicates that China is the world's factory; not a dissimilar situation if one country were to control most of the flow of oil.
Now was there a bounce at around 1875 or what , i should start a hedge fund 
, further i think it will top at 2000 or 2050 , for yet another bigger decline beneath 1875
I closed half of the position at 1900 a little to late , didnt play calls unfortunately
401 aex it was , funny thing about the markets is is that its turns around numbers, resistance or support
, further i think it will top at 2000 or 2050 , for yet another bigger decline beneath 1875I closed half of the position at 1900 a little to late , didnt play calls unfortunately
401 aex it was , funny thing about the markets is is that its turns around numbers, resistance or support
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no...l-the-greenspan-put-2015-08-27?dist=countdown
the fed is owned by big banks how much more corrupted you want to get it ,.....
the fed is owned by big banks how much more corrupted you want to get it ,.....
I have been professionally involved in debt and equity capital markets for over 30 years, and find this thread mildly amusing. I love you guys on audio matters but even a lot of knowledge is a dangerous thing when it comes to market timing. Expect to lose some money before you become "The New Market Wizards". Good luck!
Market timing is a fools game. You will never catch the top, or bottom, correctly. However, there are periods when a dip can be taken advantage of, if you have a time horizon longer than 6mo-1 year. For instance, does anyone think oil will remain at $40 in 3 years? What an opportunity to periodically buy into energy right now, as long as you don;t need the money before year end. Same thing for the current equity market dip. Next year is an election year and the market generally does well then, plus the economy is better now than it was a year ago. So this dip could be bought into for a return over the next year.
It is fun to try and predict the numbers though, even though it is more like putting a finger in the air than making a prediction based on any kind of fundamental facts.
It is fun to try and predict the numbers though, even though it is more like putting a finger in the air than making a prediction based on any kind of fundamental facts.
Yes, you can never catch a bottom or a top correctly, but you can take advantage of dips longer term.
I had made some good money this year already in my retirement account, buying into dips (while never catching the top correctly of course), and then decided to leave the market because it seemed too stable for too long, and trading within a very narrow range for most of the year, making it vulnerable to even minor shocks, and in my view there were no longer term prospects at this point to expect further short-term growth (we just came out of a 'meh' earnings season). So I had sat out the first dip of 6 % during last week, but then went in. I hoped there would be a rebound on Monday, but took into account the possibility that the market might drop further anyway. I just wanted to make sure I had a good gain over the market come year's end.
Well, on Monday and Tuesday I dipped with the market 5 %. So I lost some money. Tough luck. No reason to panic, I thought, because I was in for the long term. And yes, the rebound came unexpectedly swift, and I might even have some gains this week, who'd have thought. But I'm in for the longer term anyway. I won't get out before having made serious money again, which means at least several %, with perhaps some losses along the way. At this point there really is no way to tell which direction the market might go. Another dip to 1875? Nah, on what grounds? I guess the panic on China is over-blown (while their economy may slow down, their stock market has no connection to the real economy), and the US still looks good, also with the newest numbers this week. How will the market react to an interest hike by the Fed? Who knows. So I'll stay in. The market might fly up swiftly again to previous levels, and I don't want to miss out if that happens. Yes, it might also stall, or it might drop, even severely. No way to tell at this point.
Should I have gone in this Monday or Tuesday instead of last Friday? Sure, but as pointed out you can never tell the bottom correctly. I was simply looking at my nice % point advantage over the market this year, a pure numbers game, and decided that it was good enough to get in again, for hopefully some good yield come year's end -- even if the market ends flat, I'll still have made some serious good money.
Well i got in again for the ride to 375 aex , dont know the number on the SPX , the next stop imo
I added to my positions on Friday also. I got a little scared on Monday, saw the reversal but was busy at the close so missed another chance to buy in some more. Tues and Wed I was traveling so didn't see where we were until yesterday. All in all, I am happy I bought in on Friday and think that's going to be a reasonable profit by year end. However September might just give us more "opportunity" before the S&P gets back above 2000.
The rest of the crash played out by me ( if it happens), close the position at 375 aex , wait for the rebound ( max aex 400 ) then get in for the sept/ oct biggie , close the position at expiration (every 3rd Friday of the month) so third Friday of oct whatever the value might be, after that maybe shares or calls for the end of the year rally
), close the position at 375 aex , wait for the rebound ( max aex 400 ) then get in for the sept/ oct biggie , close the position at expiration (every 3rd Friday of the month) so third Friday of oct whatever the value might be, after that maybe shares or calls for the end of the year rally
I already made a small fortune , but with another 25 -30 % drop before oct 16 , no work no more for me, officially retired.
But hey cant sit at home all day , so i ll just keep working, maybe a day in the week less
, officially retired.But hey cant sit at home all day , so i ll just keep working
, maybe a day in the week less
Its getting tricky for my sept 420 series , 9 tradingdays more to drop under 420 for them to expire in the money , otherwise the money aint no longermine , i still have okt series but....
The aex should be much lower last year with 1874 spx it bottomed at 366 , our dutch index definetively doesnt expect a crash coming
The aex should be much lower last year with 1874 spx it bottomed at 366 , our dutch index definetively doesnt expect a crash coming
402 aex was" the spike" down to close unfortunately , didnt profit optimally , but hey it aint easy .
Now we seem to be in a certain consolidation fase , afic its a kind of flag pattern on which when the bottom breaks out it will make onother big leg down , (it could also be a market bottom off course )
All the sept puts are out to risky , ive got only oct series now
Now we seem to be in a certain consolidation fase , afic its a kind of flag pattern on which when the bottom breaks out it will make onother big leg down , (it could also be a market bottom off course )
All the sept puts are out to risky , ive got only oct series now
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If am right first on the shoppinglist will be the new full of electronic ridermodes 2015 R1
2015-yamaha-yzf-r1-12-1 by andromeda61, on Flickr
2015-yamaha-yzf-r1-12-1 by andromeda61, on Flickr- Status
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