Big bounce back in the last hour today. I pulled out most of my mutual fund buy orders, waiting for further lows to come.
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What's going on with the US stock market lately?
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Big bounce back in the last hour today. I pulled out most of my mutual fund buy orders, waiting for further lows to come.
i always find it very hard to make intraday money . even if the markets make a huge correction there will be huge rallies as well i was also behind the screen in 2008 i remember 100 points down and up again intraday if you sit on the wrong side of the trade its very bad for the heart
To summarize what is going on with the market right now after hours, take a look at Netflix after hours: -115 to 333 (-25%), on smaller subscriber growth. A total gamble (crap shoot, really)
I think it all depends on your perspective. If you are looking for what profit (or loss) you can make in the next month, then yes, it is a crap shoot. But if you are looking 6-12 months out I think the US markets, at least, will be in a better place. Maybe/probably even better than they were a month ago at new tops.
My timeframe is 6-12 months at the short end, and 5 years + on the long end. So I am looking at this as an opportunity to put some of the profit I took this past summer back into the equity marketplace. I do believe bonds will do well in this crisis, but that is short term trading, and I don't do that. long term bonds can only fall.
I also have 99% of my portfolio in mutual funds. So I don't pick individual stocks. I pick market sectors (e.g. large cap, small cap, tech, health, international, etc.) and let the experts runnign those funds do the stock picking within their specialty. This also lowers my risk profile due to diversification.
Now Europe or Asian markets - well I think that still needs to be shaken out some.
That being said, I see this dip as an opportunity, not a catastrophy.
My timeframe is 6-12 months at the short end, and 5 years + on the long end. So I am looking at this as an opportunity to put some of the profit I took this past summer back into the equity marketplace. I do believe bonds will do well in this crisis, but that is short term trading, and I don't do that. long term bonds can only fall.
I also have 99% of my portfolio in mutual funds. So I don't pick individual stocks. I pick market sectors (e.g. large cap, small cap, tech, health, international, etc.) and let the experts runnign those funds do the stock picking within their specialty. This also lowers my risk profile due to diversification.
Now Europe or Asian markets - well I think that still needs to be shaken out some.
That being said, I see this dip as an opportunity, not a catastrophy.
Bob, don't take this the wrong way but I don't get it. You posting all this stuff suggesting you really understand "the markets" and are an active investor/speculator, and then you go on to say you are 99% in mutual funds? Unless, you're adjusting your portfolio between funds on a weekly basis (which defeats the purpose of being in a mutual fund) this makes little sense to me.
My personal philosophy is that mutual fund managers are just as clueless as me, the whole thing is a crazy casino devoid of all rationality so I'm staying out 100% (I'm 75% real estate 15% cash and 10% in a Yuan ETF).
Just some background, so you will understand. I'm an economics/finance major. I've worked on Wall Street since 1981 in many different capacities. I used to be an equities trader, which is why I believe in leaving individual security pick to the professionals for long-term investing, rather than short term speculative trading. I've worked with and built portfolio management systems. I've spent the last 10-15 years working in the market and credit risk areas of banks and insurance companies.
I just don't have time to research individual stocks and watch them and still perform my regular job. So I buy mutual funds, and read several investing newsletters for trends and such. I firmly believe in diversification, periodic and systematic dollar cost averaging investing principles. I believe in a long term view and do not try and time the markets, except at times like this when I see a top form (to take some profits) or a pullback based on news and market hysteria (buying opportunity) while fundamentals still look sound.
So, that being said, I think each person has to be comfortable with their own risk profile and portfolio allocations. There isn't just one right answer to any of this. I also think real estate is a great investment from a long term perspective. A small cash position is essential to be able to take advantage of opportunities or avoid selling at the bottom because you need cash for expenses.
As for my participation in this thread ... I'm just calling what I see. But you are right, I could be totally wrong. All it takes is something like the Ebola outbreak to escalate in the developed countries and all this panic will be justified and things will really start to fall then.
I just don't have time to research individual stocks and watch them and still perform my regular job. So I buy mutual funds, and read several investing newsletters for trends and such. I firmly believe in diversification, periodic and systematic dollar cost averaging investing principles. I believe in a long term view and do not try and time the markets, except at times like this when I see a top form (to take some profits) or a pullback based on news and market hysteria (buying opportunity) while fundamentals still look sound.
So, that being said, I think each person has to be comfortable with their own risk profile and portfolio allocations. There isn't just one right answer to any of this. I also think real estate is a great investment from a long term perspective. A small cash position is essential to be able to take advantage of opportunities or avoid selling at the bottom because you need cash for expenses.
As for my participation in this thread ... I'm just calling what I see. But you are right, I could be totally wrong. All it takes is something like the Ebola outbreak to escalate in the developed countries and all this panic will be justified and things will really start to fall then.
OK. Thanks for clarifying. That explains you're both knowledgeable, yet a passive investor with long terms view. I was just curious.
Very true. I'm highly risk averse and don't have the stamina to sit through daily 1% swings in the market and always worry the bottom could fall out. Real estate bought at the right time/price appreciates about 5-10% and throws off 5-10% cash flow on equity (if you have zero leverage like I do - otherwise typically more). With limited risk (lack of liquidity is the main downside). The equity trding types probably don't have the stamina to deal with renters.
I'm very bearish abut long term economic outlook, but could be dead wrong as well. Like audio, finance and economics is not an exact science.
Quote Originally Posted by andromedaaudio View Post
The market cant break really through the 1900 area S & P. which is support /resistance
OMG, I can't count the number of times that I have heard about support and resistance levels, triggers at xxx, technical patterns and quotes like "It'll never go through here".
The support and resistance levels, etc are only useful if a significant number of people perform the same analysis and come to the same conclusion, then put their money behind their conclusion.
Last week and to a great extent the two weeks before, the market was reacting to news and when news or a fundamental change occurs, conventional technical analysis fails. These days the markets are driven by fresh news and activity from the funds and HFT's, and, most of the time the only indicator of what is going to happen is what actually did happen in the last few minutes. Forecasting systems that were developed before the huge funds and prior to HFT's and co-located computers are not useful today.
The market cant break really through the 1900 area S & P. which is support /resistance
OMG, I can't count the number of times that I have heard about support and resistance levels, triggers at xxx, technical patterns and quotes like "It'll never go through here".
The support and resistance levels, etc are only useful if a significant number of people perform the same analysis and come to the same conclusion, then put their money behind their conclusion.
Last week and to a great extent the two weeks before, the market was reacting to news and when news or a fundamental change occurs, conventional technical analysis fails. These days the markets are driven by fresh news and activity from the funds and HFT's, and, most of the time the only indicator of what is going to happen is what actually did happen in the last few minutes. Forecasting systems that were developed before the huge funds and prior to HFT's and co-located computers are not useful today.
Off course that doesnt really mean anything , but since the fed is ending its bondbuying program at the end of oct it might trigger a sell off , the QE programs have been tremendously bullish for stocks i also expect it to go in reverse .
Here is a interesting speach given by a top US intelligence adviser (jim rickards )and how he thinks about the FED and other things
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQBia1Mw9Vw
Here is a interesting speach given by a top US intelligence adviser (jim rickards )and how he thinks about the FED and other things
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQBia1Mw9Vw
I hope you all took advantage of the pullback last week. It's likely your last chance to get in to the equity market at low levels before the year end surge.
I pulled the trigger at 16000, as everyone else... doing fine so far; AAPL helped a lot, eagerly awaiting AMZN results
Off course that doesnt really mean anything , but since the fed is ending its bondbuying program at the end of oct it might trigger a sell off , the QE programs have been tremendously bullish for stocks i also expect it to go in reverse .
Here is a interesting speach given by a top US intelligence adviser (jim rickards )and how he thinks about the FED and other things
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQBia1Mw9Vw
Don't forget the importance of buybacks. We have gone through a period of some of the most flagrant self-enrichment of sr. execs (all shareholders profiting from buybacks) in modern history, at the expense of wage earners. The fact that this is all happening on the watch of our alleged socialist prez is beyond ironic. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...d-almost-all-profits-on-buybacks-payouts.html
End of QE wednesday, whats it gonna be rock or roll??
Edorr don t think europe(EU) is any better , now they taxed england holland and italy for in total billions more , its a good way of saying you have big anti eu parties this is our payback , they also call themselves " socialist "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETxmCCsMoD0
Edorr don t think europe(EU) is any better , now they taxed england holland and italy for in total billions more , its a good way of saying you have big anti eu parties this is our payback , they also call themselves " socialist "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETxmCCsMoD0
It is a trade-off. More vacation, better baguette and cappuccino in Europe, but less consumer electronics for the money and smaller cars. On this forum USA would get the nod. On www.bonnevivant.com Europe wins.
Take a look at insider buying lately. That's a statistic where inside executives at a company buy more of the stock of that company. This is always a good sign that those same senior execs think their company stock is low priced and that will make money on buying now. Those purchases are very high lately. A positive sign for the stock market, if not the full economy.
If the expected upward move of the stock is engineered through stock buybacks approved by the very same execs that do the inside buying, this is obviously very good news for execs, but bad news to the economy (resources diverted from the pockets of wage earners and investment into the pockets of execs and shareholders). In fact, this is one of those rackets where 20 years from now we will be asking ourselves "how was this self-enrichment scheme even legal".
I think for a while all will be good, as long as interest rates are low - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-will-hold-markets-hand-as-it-ends-qe3-2014-10-27
I was just voted winner of the worst stockmarket timer championships this market rocked instead of rolled
this market rocked instead of rolled
I was just voted winner of the worst stockmarket timer championships
Market timing is next to impossible, don't feel bad.
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