Bitcoin

[Folsom]

…but ultimately worthless like all Ponzi schemes.

I agree the science of it is brilliant, and it wasn’t designed as a Ponzi scheme, but it was never meant to be your “appreciating asset” either. And it will not be forever.

BTC brought me some amount of wealth over the years, and I’ll always be grateful. But I’m not going down with that ship.

That could be said for literally anything that people buy, ever. Supply and demand. There is nothing that could not be brought down to zero demand and have lots of supply or vice versa. I think you are neglecting the huge amount of physical investment in BTC. Frankly it FAR exceeds say light fixtures or AudioQuest cables for value to physical input on any sensible metrics.

When the "ship goes down" there will not be any safe currencies but guns, ammo, food, water, and gas/diesel/propane.

 

[AnonymousAudiophile]

That could be said for literally anything that people buy, ever. Supply and demand. There is nothing that could not be brought down to zero demand and have lots of supply or vice versa. I think you are neglecting the huge amount of physical investment in BTC. Frankly it FAR exceeds say light fixtures or AudioQuest cables for value to physical input on any sensible metrics.

When the "ship goes down" there will not be any safe currencies but guns, ammo, food, water, and gas/diesel/propane.

No, there is a difference between ponzi schemes (which are usually investments) and regular commodities/products with a real-world use case. The former only keeps its value if more investors keep buying in and will lose its value as soon as that pipeline slows down.

I had higher hopes for bitcoin a few years ago (as a digital currency), but now it's clearer to me that bitcoin as an appreciating asset is exclusively reliant on new entrants (mass market ETFs as the most recent example). Sure, you will always be able to trade it securely and relatively anonymously, but at $60k per BTC we are well into Ponzi bubble territory.

I've never considered my audio gear an investment, so even when there are multiple new versions out and new technologies even, it will still sound good in my home. My bitcoin was of absolutely no use to me anymore, in the real world.

Definitely agree with your last sentence though about the real coming social apocalypse!

 

[MRubey]

"Waste energy"? Those fossil fuels would just be burning themselves?

Also, don't power companies like anyone who buys energy from them, particularly if they are willing to adjust their demand at the request of the power company? That doesn't make it ecologically sound or sustainable.

For those who don’t like other media being used as a teaching tool here. Please understand that the scope and level of education that is called for is vast. It is much more efficient to employ materials already extant. Thank you.

 

[Rexp]

Interesting that you cannot short Bitcoin ETF's... Why is that?

 

[andromedaaudio]

The dutch were the first

Tulip mania - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[andromedaaudio]

Gold is getting ready to race .
I think were gonna see a interesting end of the year.
Buffet sold stocks , will the crash be finally here ??
I bet wrong a lot of times , but 2024 or 2025 is the final year of the bubble i reckon

 

[Folsom]

No, there is a difference between ponzi schemes (which are usually investments) and regular commodities/products with a real-world use case. The former only keeps its value if more investors keep buying in and will lose its value as soon as that pipeline slows down.

I had higher hopes for bitcoin a few years ago (as a digital currency), but now it's clearer to me that bitcoin as an appreciating asset is exclusively reliant on new entrants (mass market ETFs as the most recent example). Sure, you will always be able to trade it securely and relatively anonymously, but at $60k per BTC we are well into Ponzi bubble territory.

I've never considered my audio gear an investment, so even when there are multiple new versions out and new technologies even, it will still sound good in my home. My bitcoin was of absolutely no use to me anymore, in the real world.

Definitely agree with your last sentence though about the real coming social apocalypse!

As someone who has actually worked on creating a mine and understands how BTC works, this is a misunderstanding of how it works. Just like with any market people can under sell the value but you will never get new coins at a loss for more than a hot minute. In the same way you cannot get transactions for free. There is a physical side to BTC. It is like buying a chair, the price can be manipulated but eventually you cannot buy it any cheaper than a price that reflects the physical stresses of acquiring it. It may be conceptually odd to think of electricity as being physical but any power generation certainly does not feel out of the physical realm.

The price above a certain point does require new entrants, but the stabilization price does not. At all times there is a real exchange happening that is verifiable to all. A ponzi would be telling people to buy BTC, but giving them nothing or a symbolic item, and require sales to use their proceeds to buy more. With BTC if you sell and buy more with proceeds you have less. You are not the house benefiting from some sort of transaction cost, dividend, or creation. And in this case the "house" - likely a CEX for demonstrable purpose - has to open market purchase BTC anyways so they cannot manipulate it like a ponzi unless they start giving you spreads that are atrociously high and obvious.

On the contrary let us look at fiat. It is inflationary and requires constant circulation to maintain value. The only thing that it costs to create more of it is, on average, is an opinion. It requires constant acquisition by newcomers willing to create debt that becomes competitive since it exceed the supply. There is no consensus among many for how it works. So the relative downsides to BTC do not look so bad once you start comparing it to the other things. There is no perfect.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Im ready for the big one .
I bought AEX oktober 890 puts .
I see it as the SPX is making a double top right now ( together with july top ).

Gold will stay pretty good during the crash i see BTC just going down with the stockmarket.

The coming crash and subsequently the Central Banks stepping in and start printing money will be the nail in the coffin for fiat currencies

 

[Ron Resnick]

Interesting that you cannot short Bitcoin ETF's... Why is that?

You can short BITX.

 

[Ron Resnick]

Please understand that the scope and level of education that is called for is vast.

It is misleading to suggest there is something mystical and impenetrable about Bitcoin that only a select few can understand.

In 2017, I interviewed for the Chief Operating Officer position at a start-up blockchain company and at a start-up cryptocurrency hedge fund. In preparation for those interviews I gave myself a four week crash course in blockchain theory and practice, initial coin offering structures, cryptocurrency regulation and the libertarian underpinnings of crypto-anarchy. I'm not suggesting I understand the computer science underlying the Bitcoin blockchain. But everything else is pretty accessible if you go in open-minded.*

---------------

*Open-minded might be the most difficult hurdle. This is what Bitcoin cultists mean when they say that "Bitcoin comes to you when you're ready for it."

I don't have any statistics on this, but it seems like virtually nobody over 65 years old thinks Bitcoin is anything but a fraud.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Anybody want some FTT tokens.

I d say SBF as director of the crypto regulating board lol .
When he gets out

 

[AnonymousAudiophile]

It is like buying a chair, the price can be manipulated but eventually you cannot buy it any cheaper than a price that reflects the physical stresses of acquiring it.

I don’t know about your chair analogy. I have many pieces of fine furniture that are worth less now than the cost to build them was. They depreciate quickly and deeply, particularly if they’re not an Eames chair.

So, I suppose you’re talking about NEW chairs/BTC? I honestly don’t see why new BTC couldn’t end up worth less than the electricity required to mine it. Not that there would be oversupply, but that there would just be very little demand for the mined token. If you see BTC as a ‘fad’ or bubble like I do now, then what’s to stop it’s street value from basically going to nothing?

The price above a certain point does require new entrants, but the stabilization price does not. At all times there is a real exchange happening that is verifiable to all. A ponzi would be telling people to buy BTC, but giving them nothing or a symbolic item, and require sales to use their proceeds to buy more. With BTC if you sell and buy more with proceeds you have less. You are not the house benefiting from some sort of transaction cost, dividend, or creation. And in this case the "house" - likely a CEX for demonstrable purpose - has to open market purchase BTC anyways so they cannot manipulate it like a ponzi unless they start giving you spreads that are atrociously high and obvious.

Fair point regarding the true definition of Ponzi. This is not Bernie Madoff. But as you said, its appreciation beyond a certain point requires new entrants. What point is that? Have we maybe reached it yet? What happens when there is a mass exit from the market?

On the contrary let us look at fiat. It is inflationary and requires constant circulation to maintain value. The only thing that it costs to create more of it is, on average, is an opinion. It requires constant acquisition by newcomers willing to create debt that becomes competitive since it exceed the supply. There is no consensus among many for how it works. So the relative downsides to BTC do not look so bad once you start comparing it to the other things. There is no perfect.

Comparing BTC to fiat is interesting, but not all that useful, in my opinion. A LOT more is riding on fiat staying useful than BTC staying an appreciating asset, and there are infinitely more stakeholders for fiat’s existence. Unfortunately for BTC, there are fiat stakeholders who have more power than BTC stakeholders, and they can tank BTC if they want to.

 

[Tim Link]

Hello Tim,

Read about and understand proof of work versus proof of stake as a consensus mechanism. Only Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum pre-fork and Litecoin (as well as a few smaller trivial sh#tcoins) employ proof of work as their consensus mechanism.

The concern of making endless new perfectly good proof of work cryptocurrencies has been addressed by somebody I watched recently. I've been trying to find it but I can't remember his name. His argument was that all other cryptocurrencies are scams and junk. The reason is: only one cryptocurrency is needed. So the first good one is the last good one. It's a winner takes all situation.

 

[MRubey]

It is misleading to suggest there is something mystical and impenetrable about Bitcoin that only a select few can understand.

In 2017, I interviewed for the Chief Operating Officer position at a start-up blockchain company and at a start-up cryptocurrency hedge fund. In preparation for those interviews I gave myself a four week crash course in blockchain theory and practice, initial coin offering structures, cryptocurrency regulation and the libertarian underpinnings of crypto-anarchy. I'm not suggesting I understand the computer science underlying the Bitcoin blockchain. But everything else is pretty accessible if you go in open-minded.*

---------------

*Open-minded might be the most difficult hurdle. This is what Bitcoin cultists mean when they say that "Bitcoin comes to you when you're ready for it."

I don't have any statistics on this, but it seems like virtually nobody over 65 years old thinks Bitcoin is anything but a fraud.

Anyone can understand it. It just takes time. The rabbit hole is very deep and multifaceted and a true understanding of Bitcoin requires letting go of preconceptions about the nature of money. This is the hurtle that many are unwilling to cross.

Virtually every Bitcoiner I’m aware of began by thinking it was a fraud. Then they did their homework. We believe those who understand it and still fight it do so because they are invested in what Bitcoin threatens. We think Elizabeth Warren and Warren Buffet understand Bitcoin very well. So they fight it because it is in their interest to do so.

I’m 65. I’m a retired nurse. I have a friend who is a 70 yr old nurse anesthetist and owns Bitcoin.
We are the exceptions to the rule.
It’s true, most older people don’t get it. I hope they don’t trust the CBDC either.

 

[MRubey]

“ So the first good one is the last good one. It's a winner takes all situation.”

“Bitcoin. There is no second best, there’s just Bitcoin”
Everything else is a scam.

 

[Tim Link]

You only have to trust CBDC to be reasonably stable so you can use it for transaction conveniences. There's no need to buy large amounts of it and hold it. Well, I shouldn't say there's no reason to. Some people hold cash for all kinds of reasons. But you don't have to treat it like an investment that you expect returns from. As a Navy enlisted man I used to buy federal savings bonds that returned 7%, I think, and would go higher if inflation did. Something like that. I spent those all on getting my pilot's license.

 

[MRubey]

It is misleading to suggest there is something mystical and impenetrable about Bitcoin that only a select few can understand.



---------------

*Open-minded might be the most difficult hurdle. This is what Bitcoin cultists mean when they say that "Bitcoin comes to you when you're ready for it."

That and “Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve”

Somewhere earlier in this thread I wrote that Bitcoin is emaculate.
It has developed a cultish following no doubt. Insiders and outsiders.
But this is no more than those who have traveled the learning curve and those who have not. I said before, it took me eighteen months of intensive study before I understood. This isn’t an understanding of facts. You can get the facts in a few hours. It’s the understanding that develops over time as you slowly get the implications.
It is a gift of rare genius.

If you want to get into next level Bitcoin, look into Jeff Booth. There are many interviews on YouTube.
The interviews on Natalie Brunell’s YouTube Channel are good because she works hard to make things accessible.

 

[Tangram]

I was having lunch with a techie friend today and we discussed the massive power requirements of server farms that power AI. The North American grid won't be sufficient without some significant (read: nuke) power additions. But as a stopgap, bitcoin mining farms could be outlawed. Win-win as far as I'm concerned.

 

[MRubey]

China has shown why the CBDC is a problem. It is used as a tool of surveillance and control. People have a social score tied to their central money account. If you say or do something the government doesn’t like it shows up in your social score and is reflected in restricted access to purchase or they even take your funds.
We think this can’t happen here?
Canada already crossed the rubicon. The truckers protest. Bank accounts were suspended without any charges being filed. Mortgages and rents went unpaid.
People were unable to buy groceries for their families. Gas to get work etc.

[Political discourse omitted]

 

[MRubey]

I was having lunch with a techie friend today and we discussed the massive power requirements of server farms that power AI. The North American grid won't be sufficient without some significant (read: nuke) power additions. But as a stopgap, bitcoin mining farms could be outlawed. Win-win as far as I'm concerned.

I could not agree more that continual expansion of energy capacity is needed, and is happening.
As far as outlawing Bitcoin Mining goes. That genie is out of the bottle.
Riot Blockchain Bitcoin mining operation, Rockdale, Texas.