Coronavirus ...

[wisnon]

you must have fallen asleep, 18k and counting .........

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/02/28/americas-flu-season-toll-k-dead-m-sick/

How would I know? Nobody in the mainstream media covers this. They only have eyes for the shiny new toy. Meanwhile the silent killer is running riot as per usual.

Normal flu, that's sooooo 2019. Who cares?

So all those worried about their kids and grandparents and are ONLY focussed on Corona, I got news for you:
IT IS A BAD FLU season, so look left and then right, traffic coming both ways and its way heavier in one direction!

 

[NorthStar]

You can start another thread about the flu season in any country you like, the whole world flu.

This is no fluke .... AAAS
? https://www.aaas.org/news/public-health-researchers-warn-severity-new-coronavirus-still-unknown

? https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/joh...nding_reliable_health_information_online.html

 

[wisnon]

we have 2 weeks more data since then. Trends are much more clear now.

I am not saying to ignore it. I saw GO WHERE THE FACTS TAKE YOU!

If you stand for nothing, you fall for everything. Read, analyse and apply critical thinking. What are previous parallels, how closely do they apply, what were those outcomes, will this be similar or different based on the quality and quantity of facts we have access to?

 

[jeff1225]

How would I know? Nobody in the mainstream media covers this. They only have eyes for the shiny new toy. Meanwhile the silent killer is running riot as per usual.

Normal flu, that's sooooo 2019. Who cares?

So all those worried about their kids and grandparents and are ONLY focussed on Corona, I got news for you:
IT IS A BAD FLU season, so look left and then right, traffic coming both ways and its way heavier in one direction!

Nailed it.

 

[NorthStar]

? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/

 

[Duke LeJeune]

This whole thing is a silly joke. By July , all this will be a distant memory and everyone will carry on forgetting they bought into the overhyped bullshit.

One critical piece of information we do not have is, how many cases of coronavirus we are likely to see. The worst case scenario is apparently pretty bad, but perhaps efforts to contain it will be successful, and/or perhaps effective treatment protocols will be developed quickly. If the coronavirus does indeed go away by July, it will be because many competent people worked very hard to make that happen.

NORMAL Flu kills up to 65K a year in the US alone.

Normal flu has a mortality rate in the general ballpark of .01 percent, with perhaps 30-45 million cases per year in the US. And we have a vaccine for it. In a bad year, yeah maybe 65 thousand deaths.

COVID-19 may have a mortality rate as high as 6.8 percent (as of today, the tally is 2,942 deaths out of 42,746 cases that have been "closed" - meaning the patient either recovered or died). Personally, I suspect it's considerably lower, based on the theory that many of the milder cases go undocumented. A report I read earlier today which embraces the theory that the number of cases is being greatly under-reported estimates the mortality rate at .2% to .5%, which is still 20 to 50 times worse than the normal flu.

So the coronavirus apparently has a significantly higher mortality rate than the normal flu, it is apparently highly contagious, and we do not have a vaccine.

Imo a valid concern is that a widespread outbreak is not implausible, and if that happens, it would probably be far worse than the normal flu.

(Last I heard there are now two cases in California of "community transmission", meaning that the person had no known contact with an infected person and therefore apparently was infected by an unknown source, which is obviously bad news from the standpoint of containment. On the other hand, the number of new cases in China is going down, which is good news from the standpoint of containment.)

 

[the sound of Tao]

If we couldn’t just go external and just blame the failings of others what then could we look at in explaining this growing underlying fear about the potential in all the new threats that face us.

Could it just be we have an increasing anxiety about the numbers and scales of global threats and a clear scaling up of social, environmental and economic factors that are now surfacing ever more regularly like a ramping series of pounding waves coming fairly much straight at us.

We have lived through crazy and absolutely unprecedented rates of change. Most generations get at least some reasonable breathing space between significant seismic global challenges but the last two to three decades in this planet everything has quickened well beyond our current ability to respond and grow easily.

I do believe that underneath current great and growing unease is this impending sense that our way of being as a species is really coming up to boundary point now to threaten us more regularly and more completely.

So all apocalyptic fear aside we clearly have to become better managers of change. Risk management just isn’t enough any more, we have to shift a much greater focus on change management now. We also have to learn (at last) that technology of itself can’t save us and that we now have to manage much greater cultural change to make possible a bearable future for us all.

 

[NorthStar]

If this was an ordinary flu we wouldn't have the announcement we just had earlier today with a very very serious tone, and calm tone. And the stock market wouldn't have crashed like it just did last week. Next Monday when it reopens ... nobody can predict anymore ... nobody can lead the dance but reality.

Highest level to not travel to some regions and countries of the world, including our own.

It takes some time to some people to realize the situation; it's normal as it has only been two months, two thousand years, two million years ...

 

[parkcaka]

Normal flu kills around 60K people each year. This is normal. There is nothing to hype about it. Normal flu's mortality rate is around 0.01%.

So 60M have flu each year and 60K dies. No need to panic if you already have normal precautions.

Coronovirus has mortality rate of 3 to 6%. It is as contagious as normal flu.

Let's do the math now.

If you do not hype, take extraordinary precautions and see it as a normal flu 60M people will have the Coronovirus this year in USA.

AND 3M will die from it.

So deaths caused by flu will rise from 60K to 3M. That is 3 million people meaning if you have 200 friends in your Facebook profile around 10 of them will be dead until the end of the year. It may be your son, father, coworker, best friend etc.

That is EACH YEAR until a cure is found since the virus evolves very rapidly and it is said that recovery is not a guarantee for another episode.

Take into account the medical system trying to deal with 60M near death patients.

So there is no need to act like the world is over but we all have to take this Coronovirus threat very very very seriously. As Bill Gates says, this is some lethal virus that comes and goes ones in every century. It is definitely not your common flu.

 

[morricab]

Yes and they cancelled Munich!!!

 

[morricab]

I hope that when this thing is gone by mid-summer that people won't get "amnesia" about the wild predictions like all the times before: SARS, swine flu, Bird Flu, Ebola, Zika, MERS, West Nile, etc.

Indeed, ZIka and ebola were much more news worthy and even they were overblown.

Turns out H1N1 actually infected at least 700 million and killed at least 500K but it is not on anyone’s concern radar anymore. Mainly people over 70 with pre-existing conditions are dying. Kids aren’t dying at all!

 

[morricab]

One critical piece of information we do not have is, how many cases of coronavirus we are likely to see. The worst case scenario is apparently pretty bad, but perhaps efforts to contain it will be successful, and/or perhaps effective treatment protocols will be developed quickly. If the coronavirus does indeed go away by July, it will be because many competent people worked very hard to make that happen.



Normal flu has a mortality rate in the general ballpark of .01 percent, with perhaps 30-45 million cases per year in the US. And we have a vaccine for it. In a bad year, yeah maybe 65 thousand deaths.

COVID-19 may have a mortality rate as high as 6.8 percent (as of today, the tally is 2,942 deaths out of 42,746 cases that have been "closed" - meaning the patient either recovered or died). Personally, I suspect it's considerably lower, based on the theory that many of the milder cases go undocumented. A report I read earlier today which embraces the theory that the number of cases is being greatly under-reported estimates the mortality rate at .2% to .5%, which is still 20 to 50 times worse than the normal flu.

So the coronavirus apparently has a significantly higher mortality rate than the normal flu, it is apparently highly contagious, and we do not have a vaccine.

Imo a valid concern is that a widespread outbreak is not implausible, and if that happens, it would probably be far worse than the normal flu.

(Last I heard there are now two cases in California of "community transmission", meaning that the person had no known contact with an infected person and therefore apparently was infected by an unknown source, which is obviously bad news from the standpoint of containment. On the other hand, the number of new cases in China is going down, which is good news from the standpoint of containment.)

Except that the number of actually infected people is likely way under reported because most people (80% of the one we know) had only very mild symptoms. The death rate in children is essentially zero and in teen -middle age about 0.2%. What is driving deaths is age and pre-existing conditions. Over 80 and you are more like 15-20%.

 

[Barry2013]

Fears about the effects of Covid 19 and comparisons with influenza are obviously very serious, but the economic consequences of Covid 19 derive from particularly the consequences of the outbreak in China. Huge numbers of companies outside China depend upon China for a vast range of components whose supply has been badly affected by the closure of factories in China and its effects upon transportation systems.
There is a big traffic jam of container ships in and off the coast of China. Ships can't get in and out to load and offload there cargos. The docks are not working properly as well as factories not being able to maintain production. Most global businesses have long ago adopted just in time production processes and the foregoing disruption is playing havoc with that model. In many cases alternative sources of supply are limited and complicated by the container ship problems in China. The stock market reactions reflects those problems.
Production outside China which depends on Chinese products is thus badly affected and at continuing risk with obvious consequences for jobs and profitability. Travel companies and airlines are badly affected and in the UK it is the stocks in those companies that have fallen most.
Influenza comparisons are not the issue, but that is not dismiss in any way the terrible toll it takes all the time

 

[NorthStar]

Yes and they cancelled Munich!!!

Not only Munich but also many many music concerts, sport's events, and even the largest gathering of people on Earth. ...Everywhere in the world; UK, Italy, Germany, France, Switzerland, Japan, Saudi Arabia, China, Australia, South Korea, North America, USA, ...

 

[NorthStar]

Fears about the effects of Covid 19 and comparisons with influenza are obviously very serious, but the economic consequences of Covid 19 derive from particularly the consequences of the outbreak in China. Huge numbers of companies outside China depend upon China for a vast range of components whose supply has been badly affected by the closure of factories in China and its effects upon transportation systems.
There is a big traffic jam of container ships in and off the coast of China. Ships can't get in and out to load and offload there cargos. The docks are not working properly as well as factories not being able to maintain production. Most global businesses have long ago adopted just in time production processes and the foregoing disruption is playing havoc with that model. In many cases alternative sources of supply are limited and complicated by the container ship problems in China. The stock market reactions reflects those problems.
Production outside China which depends on Chinese products is thus badly affected and at continuing risk with obvious consequences for jobs and profitability. Travel companies and airlines are badly affected and in the UK it is the stocks in those companies that have fallen most.
Influenza comparisons are not the issue, but that is not dismiss in any way the terrible toll it takes all the time

Looking over China now through satellite images we see the level of pollution dramatically reduced, to none, zero ...
• https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ollution-levels-partly-related-to-coronavirus

And you're right Barry about the global economy, this is not business as usual ...
• https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/29...prepare-war-rooms-as-coronavirus-spreads.html

• https://business.financialpost.com/...se-s-korea-plants-after-confirmed-virus-cases

 

[rbbert]

It’s open to question as to whether we have an effective vaccine against influenza. In the past 10+ years the effectiveness has never been above 20% for people over 50, and it’s often around 12-13 % for people over 65.

 

[rbbert]

There are antiviral drugs effective against both influenza and the novel coronavirus, but evidence that they actually save lives is poor to date.

 

[Steve williams]

rbbert

it's been a long time

nice to see you in our little part of the internet

 

[rbbert]

Thanks Steve. I've been reading and posting in the "KeithR Dream" topics for awhile

 

[Al M.]

Five reasons not to panic:

https://www.realclearscience.com/bl..._to_panic_about_the_covid-19_coronavirus.html