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[RogerD]

Bob,
Since I think you said you had ties to the financial industry....I have something to show you. People say you can't predict the markets...but these patterns form and complete. Here is a 11 year triangle that has terminated the countertrend portion and is already started down to resume the main trend. Has the Fed accomplished anything? We can debate that...good arguments on both sides. But the Junk is a good barometer on the health of the financial system. The chart tells me things are not what they seem. Why has the Fed done Bank repos since November in the Trillions of dollars?

 

[NorthStar]

I'm not an expert Roger; I'm just a simple investor who do his own trades, with his own money.
Timing the markets is unpredictable. Some professional investors get insider information, and it's easy to get in, less so to get out @ the right time. You have sets of formulae yourself, I know others who do too, many people have different strategies; people in the banking industry, people with money, people who make money and people who lost money.
...And entrepreneurs, inventors, brains, ...Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Disney, Google, Elon Musk, ... sellers, salesmen, ...of products, of services that everyone want; cellphones, computers, beauty salons, laser tech, cars, shoes, boots, food, TV programs, ...

All of this kiss it goodbye; time to find out a vaccine, and when someone does (without negative secondary effects), a year to two from now, if you're still alive and healthy and wealthy invest in it. But even better, invest in it now...in the research for a cure.

Money is more than money; it's life, it's psychology, it's ultra high end audio, hyper cars (EV fast), better climate, zero pollution, decontaminated water, clean recycling, fresh air, viruses-free. ...A clean bill of health before wealth.
Invest in that.

 

[NorthStar]

? https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp...timing-the-stock-market-simply-does-not-work/

 

[NorthStar]

What I like about Elon Musk; he invests in a cleaner future, in outer space, in transportation, in Artificial Intelligence, in renewable clean energy, ...
I invest in guys like him. I can't lose.

I'm looking for companies that invest in people, with good salaries, clean environment, benefits for societies, respect of human rights, healthy working conditions, strong collaborations with rewarding values for all...the poor and the less poor. It's the workers who build this world, it's the workers who save this world.

 

[NorthStar]

? https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/business/oil-prices-opec/index.html

Oil prices down; consumption (demand) is falling off a cliff.

 

[NorthStar]

Ah, we're in a bull market now ... NOT
¤ https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

This is a good indicator that we are just about to plunge into the abyss.
You cannot trust who's running the markets but the consumers, the travellers, the workers, the normal life of operating systems. And everything is not normal in the entire world right now.
Lowering rates won't do a thing, any temporary upswing is the exact opposite of reality.

Wash your hands and watch what's coming up next ...

 

[NorthStar]

I agree with him ...
• https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/c...ll-market-alive-veteran-trader-153023026.html

Any attempt @ selling this idea to to the general would simply backfired.
Because we all already know that it won't be happening @ the earliest April to September of the next year, 2021. And even then vaccines are never 100% efficient for those type of viruses.
Ask Norm, it can have a 15 to 35% chance of success, from history.

Wash your hands, don't open the doors with them, use automatic doors, and don't go outdoors.

 

[NorthStar]

• https://www.statnews.com/2019/02/19/crispr-might-work-when-vaccines-fail/

• https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccine-developing-17bf8e01-2c03-4f11-a9a7-b3562f472acc.html

"As confirmed cases of coronavirus increase around the globe, billionaires and multinational corporations around the world are deploying their dollars to help health authorities combat the disease.

Why it matters: Investors and businesses fear that the virus if not contained could wreak havoc on the global economy by cutting into China's 2020 growth, Axios' Dion Rabouin and Joann Muller report."
_____

* Not a good day today on Wall Street.
Tomorrow? If it goes down it's normal, if it goes up it's abnormal.

 

[NorthStar]

Asian Markets? They rise on ripple effects of Fed's stimulus measures.
• https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...-effects-of-feds-stimulus-measures-2020-03-04

• https://www.marketwatch.com/markets/asia

But they will eventually feel the down effects of the global economy.

 

[NorthStar]

Normally this should have been tremendous good news for the stock market ...
• https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/business/economy/jobs-report.html

But these are not normal times. Even gold is fighting reticence.

Invest in what; toilet paper, soaps, disinfectants, ... prayers?
_____

?¤?
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[RogerD]

Oh boy....here we go!
Saudi Arabia Starts All-Out Oil War: MbS Destroys OPEC By Flooding Market, Slashing Oil Prices | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditi...roys-opec-flooding-market-slashing-oil-prices

 

[andromedaaudio]

Probably good for stocks , low oil price
For me the trade would still be gold stocks .
Mine almost doubled since 2018.
I see them gain a lot more .: yamana barrick kinross for example.

 

[andromedaaudio]

But extremely volatile

 

[NorthStar]

? https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/saudi-aramco-slashes-crude-prices-kicking-off-price-war-1.1401759

? https://m.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

? https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/06/russias-defiance-sets-the-stage-for-oil-price-bloodbath/

 

[RogerD]

Probably good for stocks , low oil price
For me the trade would still be gold stocks .
Mine almost doubled since 2018.
I see them gain a lot more .: yamana barrick kinross for example.

Not good for stocks or commodities at all. A waterfall in oil is highly deflationary. Imho

 

[RogerD]

Far to many black swans....Coronavirus,Democrats. and now Saudi Arabia creates financial chaos with a $30 handle on crude. I can’t even begin to count all of the ramifications of MBS’s move. The Saudis did the same thing in 1987.

 

[Ron Resnick]

Not good for stocks or commodities at all. A waterfall in oil is highly deflationary. Imho

But it is good for consumers.

 

[RogerD]

But it is good for consumers.

Not at all.....the possible negative reaction in financial markets could be large. This will effect interest rates,currencies,high yield bonds, any Banks that hold debt to firms in the oil industry, oil producers ie Countries and States, stocks and commodities ect ect. The Saudis saw the writing on the wall and it’s self preservation. Will Sovereign wealth funds start to liquidate...real bear markets are a bitch. Most have never experienced one.

 

[Ron Resnick]

Not at all.....the possible negative reaction in financial markets could be large. This will effect interest rates,currencies,high yield bonds, any Banks that hold debt to firms in the oil industry, oil producers ie Countries and States, stocks and commodities ect ect. The Saudis saw the writing on the wall and it’s self preservation. Will Sovereign wealth funds start to liquidate...real bear markets are a bitch. Most have never experienced one.

It is good for consumers who will soon have cheaper gasoline.

 

[RogerD]

It is good for consumers who will soon have cheaper gasoline.

Maybe I take a broader view or am I too bearish? The drop in interest rates has been dramatic in the last week. I have a divorced friend that augmented his income with a CD which reached term last week. A 3 pct note now will rollover at less than a half of a pct. He called me and has decided to put his house up for sale. Monday rates will drop again.