For what it's Worth-Tesla

[morricab]

If there is a emp blast, you have so much more to worry about. And no, your manually piloted car won't work either. An old mustang might. But your fancy newer car has so many computers and circuit boards inside. They will fry and the car will stop.
I would like to see where the crash numbers are for auto pilot cars now. They have plenty of test loging millions of miles going on with ubers and taxi where the driver sits there but does nothing. Just ready to grab the wheel or hit the brake if needed. I am making a guess, but I bet autonomous cars are safer by a factor. I bet fatalities would fall to less than 3000 a year in the US if manual operation of cars was outlawed. I believe people would rather risk death and dismemberment than
1 loose the freedom to travel where you want.
2 general fear of the unknown. Or shall I say, the lack of control over the environment surrounding you. Sort of like when you let your wife drive and its a pucker fest the whole way home.

I guess humorous comments are a bit lost on you...thank god I have Lagonda on this forum to tell when something is a joke...

 

[morricab]

I have bookmarked this post with a special notification alarm, set to be triggered exactly 10 years from today, so we will be sure to evaluate then this prediction.

I seem to remember Elon Musk being quoted as saying that the driverless car has proven to be far more difficult than they could have imagined...perhaps a nut that is ultimately too tough to crack?

 

[morricab]

Brad drives a carburetor equipped 12 cylinder Jaguar E type !

I see myself as the main character in the song "Red Barchetta" by Rush. Running the race of death in my Italian sports car against the robo air cars .

 

[Dierkx1]

Here’s an interesting statistic from Wikipedia showing the growth or decline in deaths due to automobile accidents world wide. Notice that in Europe it’s been steadily declining. In the US it’s rising. Russia seems to be much worse previously but now less than the US. Not sure why they had a big decline. Will autonomous driving increase or decrease the total number of deaths? That’s the trillion dollar question. It’s arguable that fully autonomous cars may reduce deaths due to drunk drivers, elderly, folks distracted by texting and kids. But there would be a significant increase in fatalities that involve autonomous cars. I do believe fully autonomous cars will reduce fatalities overall but society will have to accept a larger percentage of deaths from self-driving cars.

View attachment 138213

The problem of full self driving is not one of sensors alone. That’s the classic mistake that Tesla, Waymo and the rest make. Driving requires reasoning, thinking and above all, modeling human behavior. When you drive, you actively model the behavior of drivers around you. Is the person near me driving aggressively, cautiously, drunk etc. Am I entering a zone where accidents are common? Is it OK to drive above the speed limit here because almost everyone does? I live close to 101. If you drove at 101 at the speed limit of 65 mph, you’d likely get killed because the joker behind you is expecting you to drive at 75!

In short, driving is what is often referred to as an AI-complete problem, meaning it requires fusing multiple modalities, from vision to motor coordination to common sense reasoning. That’s why FSD without human supervision is a pipe dream. The idea that Tesla Robotaxis that come without steering wheels or brakes would be approved by the Government for public use is wishful thinking. At best, FSD is souped up cruise control. It relieves you from constantly having to press the pedals, steering the car and prevents accidents from you falling asleep. But there’s no substitute to human-level behavior modeling.

If you do an analysis of self-driving car accidents in San Francisco, it reminds me of Murphy’s law: if something can go wrong, it will.

View attachment 138238

https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-car-crashes/

The problem of full self driving is not one of sensors alone. That’s the classic mistake that Tesla, Waymo and the rest make. Driving requires reasoning, thinking and above all, modeling human behavior. When you drive, you actively model the behavior of drivers around you. Is the person near me driving aggressively, cautiously, drunk etc. Am I entering a zone where accidents are common? Is it OK to drive above the speed limit here because almost everyone does? I live close to 101. If you drove at 101 at the speed limit of 65 mph, you’d likely get killed because the joker behind you is expecting you to drive at 75!

In short, driving is what is often referred to as an AI-complete problem, meaning it requires fusing multiple modalities, from vision to motor coordination to common sense reasoning. That’s why FSD without human supervision is a pipe dream. The idea that Tesla Robotaxis that come without steering wheels or brakes would be approved by the Government for public use is wishful thinking. At best, FSD is souped up cruise control. It relieves you from constantly having to press the pedals, steering the car and prevents accidents from you falling asleep. But there’s no substitute to human-level behavior modeling.

If you do an analysis of self-driving car accidents in San Francisco, it reminds me of Murphy’s law: if something can go wrong, it will.

View attachment 138238

https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/self-driving-car-crashes/

thanks, interesting. If you were to overlay the total number of accidents over

If there is a emp blast, you have so much more to worry about. And no, your manually piloted car won't work either. An old mustang might. But your fancy newer car has so many computers and circuit boards inside. They will fry and the car will stop.
I would like to see where the crash numbers are for auto pilot cars now. They have plenty of test loging millions of miles going on with ubers and taxi where the driver sits there but does nothing. Just ready to grab the wheel or hit the brake if needed. I am making a guess, but I bet autonomous cars are safer by a factor. I bet fatalities would fall to less than 3000 a year in the US if manual operation of cars was outlawed. I believe people would rather risk death and dismemberment than
1 loose the freedom to travel where you want.
2 general fear of the unknown. Or shall I say, the lack of control over the environment surrounding you. Sort of like when you let your wife drive and its a pucker fest the whole way home.

"MiG-25 is really an old jet, it was developed in 1960-s and adopted in 1970. At the time of the development, Soviet capability to produce solid state electronics was limited. Resistance of tube based avionics to EMP was an advantage. "

Don't know if the statement above is true, but got me thinking that the "tube first" advocates got it right.

 

[Kingrex]

Honestly, I don't worry about EMP. If we get into a place where someone launches a intercontinental missle, were gonna be dealing with a lot of warheads striking the earth. I honestly worry more about AI coupled with Boston Dynamics and how quickly we are headed to armed robotic militaries that will supress the people of the earth. Any government, foreign or your own are the threat.

Look on the interet at sites devoted to military. You will quickly become aware how big the money in AI is going to military spending. A human pilot has never beat an AI in a real or simulated dog fight. What do you think is guiding the missles in Isreals Iron dome. And they are only.getting better by the day. And you can't stop its growth and evolution. Its like Openheimers bomb or the invention of steel. Made for good but you will never stop humans from utilizing it for bad. Foreign powers like China are heavily invested in creating a AI driven military. If others don't have one, you would risk being overun like a blitzkrieg.

 

[DaveC]

I think it'll take competent AI to accomplish FSD. Currently, AI is not competent enough. I think it'll take another 5 years before we get FSD where the driver can take a nap or whatever. Cars will always have manual controls though, even if rarely used.

I don't think the public will accept many accidents and deaths from FSD even if they are a lot less frequent than human drivers. With human driving you feel like you're in control even if that may not be the case in all situations. With FSD you relinquish all control which is hard to do and hard to accept when it doesn't work.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Resistance of tube based avionics to EMP was an advantage. "

So luckily my tube amps will still work.
I always said tubes are better

 

[Holmz]

I have bookmarked this post with a special notification alarm, set to be triggered exactly 10 years from today, so we will be sure to evaluate then this prediction.

You are not worried about that EMP then.

Brad drives a carburetor equipped 12 cylinder Jaguar E type !

I hope he has a few carbs on there, in case one is dodgy.
Was the “E” type for non-Electronic?

 

[Lagonda]

You are not worried about that EMP then.


I hope he has a few carbs on there, in case one is dodgy.
Was the “E” type for non-Electronic?

It was a joke, Brad drives a new Maserati, but still manually

 

[morricab]

It was a joke, Brad drives a new Maserati, but still manually

Well, new to me…

 

[andromedaaudio]

From what i read online is that the reason why the Tesla truck is not allowed in europe are several .

Weight
The truck weighs around 3 tons and with passengers and gear it could exceed 3.5 tons in which case you need a Light truck license and only can drive 90 km/ h .
The rear Lights dont have the right colour and the sharp edges like already mentioned.

It seems Elon did nt really care about the European market sales

 

[Holmz]

It was a joke, Brad drives a new Maserati, but still manually

Yeah - I got the humour…

Why do they have a devil’s pitchfork on the front of the Maserati?
Maybe that needs to be put on a Tesla instead?

 

[godofwealth]

Tesla has been quietly testing its Robotaxis in San Francisco for most of this year. According to Musk, the version of FSD used in them is “1000x better than a human driver”. So, maybe Tesla owners may get this update soon as well.

Tesla has been testing a robotaxi service in the Bay Area for most of the year — The Verge

The cars are available to employees only and feature safety drivers behind the wheel.

apple.news

 

[Joe Whip]

The question I have is how more advanced is the robotaxi computer than HW 4 in the current cars.

 

[Kingrex]

I wonder about chips and CB

 

[Gregadd]

Ger your Tesla bow. It could soon lose its; federal and state rebates, California is moving in that direction. ICE manufacturers are that Trump eliminate the federal $7,500 rebate.

 

[Tim Link]

Ger your Tesla bow. It could soon lose its; federal and state rebates, California is moving in that direction. ICE manufacturers are that Trump eliminate the federal $7,500 rebate.

I thought I heard that Musk was in favor of dropping the rebate too, since it doesn't benefit Tesla over the competition anymore.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Annual Auto Surveys gemiddeld over tien jaar slechts 4.035 dollar aan onderhoudskosten op, waarvan niet meer dan 580 dollar in de eerste vijf jaar.

Tesla scores the best regarding maintenance costs , only 580 $$ US on average in the first 5 years . according to annual autosurveys

But im not so sure lol , 5 american brands in the top 6 , i hope there were not any bribes involved

Tesla het goedkoopst in onderhoud, Europese merken het duurst -

In de eerste tien jaar na aanschaf is een Tesla met afstand...

www.autoweek.nl

 

[Gregadd]

I thought I heard that Musk was in favor of dropping the rebate too, since it doesn't benefit Tesla over the competition anymore.

Not in favor of but does not mind. After all he has FU money. Sounds like a case of sour grapes. He said the same thing about losing advertisers on X/ I am concerned with the consumers not the manufacturers.

 

[Steve williams]

He's made up for the loss of rebates by dropping the MSRP of all his cars.