I stand corrected, thanks for providing the additional research information.
I would like to point out that I consider Gladwell's 10,000 hour "rule" to be more a "rule of thumb". In many domains it does take extensive training to gain expertise but there are definitely "naturals". An example is my Ex-girlfriend, she started violin at age 4 and by age 5 was playing Mozart Violin Concertos on Polish National Television. Did she magically get 10,000 hours in that year? Not hardly but she could already play better than a fair number of practicing professionals in orchestras...must be pretty frustrating for some of those professionals with larger egos.
I have not read "The Click Moment". What does he consider innovation/trend domains? If science is considered one such domain then I am not so sure he is right. The reason is that someone without intensive scientific training is not so likely to make scientific discoveries. You need the groundwork in order to have basics that can be reassembled to understand complex phenomena. Naturally, your brain has to be able to make those connections (that's the raw material) but awareness of the elements still takes years of study. I spent 6 years getting the basics (2 in high school, 4 in university) and then 6 more advanced training (2 years master's and 4 years Ph.D), where I was putting in 60-70 hours a week thinking about how to solve complex research problems. Today, I work on complex research problems with relatively little effort compared to my Ph.D student who is still struggling to make the connections between chemistry and physics that is the nature of my research. I think a few more years in working intesively in the domain should allow him to start making connections more easily...but maybe the "raw material" is also not there and he will never be very quick or insightful.
Alas, there are very few people who can easily go across domains and show extreme expertise in a number of areas...but they do exist. We have even idolized a few of them...like Leonardo da Vinci. I had a professor here in Switzerland that I worked for as post doctoral fellow and he was not only a good scientist but he was also a very good semi-professional violinist. He had even attended Zürich music conservatory and had some real talent. This man had impressive skills in at least two domains. However, I am sure he put in a lot of effort in getting "expert" at both domains. I also new a guy who was making a Ph.D in physics, was fast becoming a professional flamenco guitarist and was in the top 20 in Switzerland in table tennis. A bit of a modern day polymath...
Hi morricab,
Gladwell’s heuristic may have been based on “The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance” by Ericsson, Krampe, & Tesch-Römer (1993). As far as I’m aware it was the first time anyone studied the influence of deliberate practice and asked musicians with different levels of accomplishment to estimate the amount of deliberate practice they engaged in per week for each year of their careers. The number for violinists aged twenty years of age fell into rough estimates of 4,600 hours for the least accomplished group, 7,800 for “good” violinists and 10,000 hours for those considered the “best’. So although that number does exist in research (and corroborates with the experience of your ex-girlfriend), Gladwell applied very broad generalisations across populations and domains in which the heuristic ceases to be accurate.
Johansson’s research (possibly referencing that done by Macnamara, Hambrick and Oswald) attempts to uncover domain specific predictors for success, not only in domains for steady-state disciplines where the 10,000 hour heuristic is more true (classical music, chess, tennis, et al), but for those of greater volatility - entrepreneurship, the stock market, pop/rock music, etc where it is less true. Clearly success in those domains is inherently less predictable, because the relationship between talent/practice and complexity/randomness/chance is much more asymmetrical. Gladwell’s oversight is to miss the volatility of popular culture for creating trends in which talent and hard-work play a lesser role in predicating success versus who your agent is and how well your social media team manage your Instagram. Again, I’m not arguing the Beatles didn’t have 10,000 hours of gigs and band practice under their belts, and that they weren’t talented songwriters (they were), it’s that he fails to identify the asymmetries in the domain in which they succeeded, where good looks and a great management team - of which they had both - are part of the variables needing consideration.
Johansson doesn’t discuss science specifically - perhaps that’s not surprising given how incredibly disparate different disciplines can be under the same umbrella. His ultimate point is to know what the predictors for success are relative to the specific domain in which one wishes to be successful, and leverage those asymmetries (however great or small) in ones favour. For a violinist who wishes to become first chair, it’s relatively clear - a high level of innate talent, a lot of practice, and a little bit of luck (the right conservatories, repertoire, teacher, prizes, etc). To become the next Justin Bieber though, well, let’s just say it’s likely things other than innate talent and practice will play a much greater role.
As to how talent/practice impact the audiophile’s sensibilities when dealing with changes on both the micro
and macro level, it’s clear that domain specific training has little to no impact on determining “success” (there is certainly no robust research on what “success” may even mean), despite Amir’s insistence to the contrary.
Why? Because the domain of those who listen to recorded music via the playback mechanism are engaged in a combination of detection, analysis and enjoyment (all of which have their basis in neurobiology) in which the domain itself is less predictable and more volatile. That is, it’s not a domain in which discrete skills (i.e., detection of anomalies of a sound card discerning the original file from a one-pass file under ABX conditions) by themselves are anywhere near adequate to encompass the brain’s response to a perceptual phenomena of a complex waveform continually modulating in pitch and amplitude over time - “music” - via a chain of interdependence in which the result is non-linear and asymmetrical.
It seems to me that music reproduction and its analysis/appreciation is best approached from a multi-disciplinary point of view more in keeping with the the level of volatility and asymmetry.
P.S. It's also widely known da Vinci had many apprentices work for him during his lifetime (the "Leonardeschi"), many of whom significantly contributed to his major works.