Let me know when the sales surpass digital sales and I'll take a serious look. My crystal balls says this likely won't happen. But if it's wrong, you can be the first to call me out on it.
The numbers aren’t important, Blizz. The
trends are, right? After all, I’m talking to a person solely interested in neither yesterday, today nor tomorrow but five years from now, so I just
know you’re looking at the trends carefully being an astute and visionary entrepreneur.
The trend for vinyl is
year-on-year increase for the last ten years straight. CD’s? Year-on-year
decline for the last ten years (though still generated six times the revenue of ad-supported streaming in 2015, and accounted for 78%, 70% and 57% of music industry revenue in Japan, Germany and France respectively - still alive and well there). Downloads?
Down 8% in 2015.
Streaming? Doing alright, thanks. But when the largest selling artist of 2015 doesn’t have her album available on Spotify, Apple Music, Tidal, Deezer, et al, you kinda have to ask where the future of streaming is headed given pay-per-play artist royalties currently average $0.0022 across all streaming services and the Nielsen 2015 report is saying less than 9% of people will pay for a streaming service in the next six months, with 78% saying it’s somewhat to very unlikely.
Fat tails, Blizz. Fat tails. It’s the law of large numbers: the outlier determines the outcomes. Vinyl is the outlier because it’s the most historically dated of the above. Yes, streaming takes up most of the bell curve because it’s the newest and cheapest relatively speaking, but of all of the above, it’s vinyl that’s had the largest trend in year-on-year increase.
That’s why turntables, and tonearms, and cartridges both MM and MC, and reel-to-reel and cassette decks and tuners are still around. Something newer comes in and takes up most of the music-listening public’s money, but in those fat tails there’s still a lot of room for creating a sustainable business model if you’re not afraid of going against what’s currently in vogue and therefore what’s inherently the most competitive/oversaturated part of the market. As of this writing, neither Spotify nor Deezer is profitable - anyone feeling like launching a new streaming service right now? - and let’s not even go there with Tidal.
But again, I don’t why I’m telling you all this, as these trends would have been obvious to you five years ago, being the prescient and smooth-tongued soothsayer you are.