This Corona Virus Mania is Just Too Much, We All Need to Chill!

[Al M.]

History is not yet written in regards to Sweden. It will be interesting to see where they are when this is all over.

Indeed:

Sweden’s government has tried a risky coronavirus strategy. It could backfire.

 

[Folsom]

well lets go back to the initial projections of the modeling. If we did nothing (herd immunity) the loss of lives would have been between 2-6 million people.

Surely you can't agree with that

I don't follow, Steve.

Are you saying that herd immunity implies doing nothing at all, and cannot for any reason be varied from "literally nothing"? I proposed the slim chance idea of shielding vulnerable people while the rest keep the economy going, provide needed supplies for those shielded, while the "herd" becomes unable to transmit through immunity.

What should I call it, if it's not herd immunity? 2/3rd Immunity?

 

[Steve williams]

I don't follow, Steve.

Are you saying that herd immunity implies doing nothing at all, and cannot for any reason be varied from "literally nothing"? I proposed the slim chance idea of shielding vulnerable people while the rest keep the economy going, provide needed supplies for those shielded, while the "herd" becomes unable to transmit through immunity.

What should I call it, if it's not herd immunity? 2/3rd Immunity?

well my guess would be that doing nothing and allowing the population to become infected would result in countless more deaths, especially the elderly. Certainly far more deaths than what we have now after the social distancing, masks and self quarantine.

 

[andromedaaudio]

Indeed:

Sweden’s government has tried a risky coronavirus strategy. It could backfire.

Philipines is trickier though , you get shot if you dont quarantine

 

[Folsom]

That would be wonderful Dave.

I suspect the US will try to be more self reliant on things like medicines and perhaps manufacturing, building back our infrastructure, etc. We are already independent with energy and food. I also think there will be a reevaluation of globalism and free movement over borders. I agree with you and Steve that there will be change after this, and there is reason to be hopeful. However, I suspect some things will not change, and perhaps even get worse. Remember how embroiled the news was with the primary season before this crisis? I think the lead up to November will be nastier than ever, and, in that sense, this crisis will have taught us little. I may be wrong.

I have no doubt that the airline industry will do a study and design their own structured protocols for possible epidemics in the future... for the sole purpose of appearing responsible enough to receive bail out money on their over-leveraged asses (again).

 

[Lagonda]

How does one explain then that ;

Sweden 10 milllion people 800 deaths
Holland 17 million people 2400 :

Sweden virtually no restrictions
In holland you get a fine if you are in a group of 390 euro and you have all kinds of measures
Social distancing is in place / quarantine
they closed of whole parks forests with the easter holiday etc etc
IMO there is a case to be made that a virus does not survive well outside , a lot of experts say that .
Staying indoors prolongs the life of a virus and it speads very easy .
A lot of mass transmissions have occured in nursing homes and religious gatherings

Sweden has 10 million people, but a population density of only 23 people pr. square km. and not much transit traffic.
Holland has 17 million people but 421 people pr. square km, and a lot of transit traffic. In Sweden old people almost never live with younger family members.
How is the family structure in Holland ?

 

[Gregadd]

Ok how can that be? The numbers involve confirmed cases. If anything numbers. I gave a 10% error rate. I was being generous. Actually the error rate should be plus or minus.

 

[Folsom]

well my guess would be that doing nothing and allowing the population to become infected would result in countless more deaths, especially the elderly. Certainly far more deaths than what we have now after the social distancing, masks and self quarantine.

When you say "doing nothing" do you mean respective to my post;

​

Doing (relatively) nothing for the average population while the vulnerable are shielded will still result in countless deaths among A. everyone or B. among the shielded/protected, esp the elderly, because precautions won't work?​

​

or​

​

Doing nothing is what I'm proposing despite my clear distinction that "literally nothing" isn't what I said could work, and that would result in countless more deaths, especially among the elderly?​

​

I feel like you're not reading my post/s or your reply is being intentionally vague for reasons I don't understand.

 

[Folsom]

Sweden has 10 million people, but a population density of only 23 people pr. square km. and not much transit traffic.
Holland has 17 million people but 421 people pr. square km, and a lot of transit traffic. In Sweden old people almost never live with younger family members.
How is the family structure in Holland ?

I'm sure elderly in Sweden aren't like, "let's all go have a party at the pub, the whole senior club" even if the younger people are doing normal things.

 

[Steve williams]

I’m not being vague intentionally. This is above my pay grade. These are highly charged questions
of course with herd immunity the elderly will be quarantined. This will surely reduce a great deal more deaths however not to the extent we have seen by doing what we are doing

 

[Steve williams]

When you say "doing nothing" do you mean respective to my post;

​

Doing (relatively) nothing for the average population while the vulnerable are shielded will still result in countless deaths among A. everyone or B. among the shielded/protected, esp the elderly, because precautions won't work?​

​

or​

​

Doing nothing is what I'm proposing despite my clear distinction that "literally nothing" isn't what I said could work, and that would result in countless more deaths, especially among the elderly?​

​

I feel like you're not reading my post/s or your reply is being intentionally vague for reasons I don't understand.

again remember that being healthy and also an arm chair quarterback gives one a false sense of security. There is no room for error here imho

 

[andromedaaudio]

Sweden has 10 million people, but a population density of only 23 people pr. square km. and not much transit traffic.
Holland has 17 million people but 421 people pr. square km, and a lot of transit traffic. In Sweden old people almost never live with younger family members.
How is the family structure in Holland ?

mixed a bit of everything .

a lot of private homes with some nursing/ service and elderly nursing homes as well .
I think most people in sweden are also cramped together in cities like everywhere , with wild open spaces in the country where not much is going on

 

[Al M.]

What does this crisis have to do with bullets? Not everyone agrees that the US Govt. response is tepid, and how would you know what everyone expected?

I find the disparity of opinions to be astonishing. While one side celebrates that perhaps the estimated 100K-240K death count seems to be going down, and they turn their attention to the damaged economy and figuring out ways to get people back to work, the other side keeps talking about how our government is in disarray and completely incompetent, that there are lots of shortages, the number of cases keeps climbing, that the worst is still ahead, and they advocate for extending the lock down, keeping the economy closed, and advocating for massive new spending to support an indefinite closure. And all the while, the bickering continues.

I am noticing that as the corona news starts to improve, the talk of blame and accountability is increasing. I had hoped this crisis would bring us closer together toward some kind of a common purpose and goal. Instead, I am disappointed and perplexed.

Perplexed about criticism of tepid response?

‘We’re being put at risk unnecessarily’: Doctors fume at government response to coronavirus pandemic

 

[ddk]

as Spock in Star Trek stated.....The Needs of the Many Outweigh The Needs of the Few, and the one

! Spock is arguing for herd immunity here, the few that get affected vs the majority that develop immunity as a result. As we know Spock survived this as will many who get afflicted.

The I'm trying to make isn't about the dangers of the virus rather the fact that people are accepting the word of some "experts" and untrustworthy media, panicking and willing giving up their rights, for me that is the bigger danger. It reminds me of what Albert Camus famously said, "The welfare of humanity is the alibi of tyrants" .

david

PS. Already my wife's taken away my liberties hiding the car keys and not letting me out of the house to go to Home Depot. When I ask her why she quotes NHK to me!

 

[Folsom]

again remember that being healthy and also an arm chair quarterback gives one a false sense of security. There is no room for error here imho

Steve, I value your opinion. But I'm not in public office and making decisions based on it. There's nothing wrong with us laymans forming thoughts and ideas -brain storming- on a forum. We aren't about to change anything ourselves. "Shooting the breeze" I think is the expression for all of this.

of course with herd immunity the elderly will be quarantined. This will surely reduce a great deal more deaths however not to the extent we have seen by doing what we are doing

That clarifies all. You believe what we're doing now is more effective for saving lives.

I don't feel able to predict either way, I just figured if there was a way to do "herd immunity" there might be a way to do it with minimal causalities - perhaps that is what others figure too, but I haven't seen much note about a strong level of preparedness for it.


P.S. I don't particularly expect to fair healthy and well by contracting cv19 myself. I've eaten a few meals that taste a bit like hand sanitizer, washed a lot of groceries, etc etc. I remain as cautious as anyone with a glimmer of hope to be asymptomatic.

 

[Steve williams]

That clarifies all. You believe what we're doing now is more effective for saving lives

i do indeed

 

[Lagonda]

well my guess would be that doing nothing and allowing the population to become infected would result in countless more deaths, especially the elderly. Certainly far more deaths than what we have now after the social distancing, masks and self quarantine.

Ideally everyone would have been advised and thought mitigation techniques in January/February, would have followed them strictly, and we would have isolated the vulnerable at the same time. A large part of society could have gone on as usual and economy’s would not have taken the same hit. But realistically most people would not have taken it seriously. Most countries did not take it seriously until it hit them self, in Europe people where still going skiing in Northern Italy in February, after the virus was already widespread there.
I believe the solutions for moving forward will be very different from country to country, depending on population densities, healthcare system, financial capabilities and infrastructure. Hopefully a vaccine will be developed fast, it’s going to be the most realistic way to get back to our old lives

 

[ddk]

Perplexed about criticism of tepid response?

‘We’re being put at risk unnecessarily’: Doctors fume at government response to coronavirus pandemic

They seem to have worked very hard to find a dozen unknown docs and scientist to attack we know who , great source Al!

david

 

[asiufy]

Regarding Sweden...

"Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring"
https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

 

[Al M.]

They seem to have worked very hard to find a dozen unknown docs and scientist to attack we know who , great source Al!

david

Typical expected reaction.