This Corona Virus Mania is Just Too Much, We All Need to Chill!

[steve williams]

We need better data on the usefulness of artificial ventilation and how long to continue it in a given patient if/when resources become scarce. Right now it would appear that patients needing more than 24 hours on a ventilator have little chance of survival.

Like I said

 

[dminches]

Robert

It is good to see you here again and your last post to me is etched in stone

Those that deny the severity and have their head in the sand will be the ones to let their guard down and could easily become the next fatality

I agree that the economy is on hold worldwide and everyone is either unemployed or living off their savings. Having said that I do believe the economy will recover quickly. The Dow in the past 2 weeks has regained over 5000 points it had previously given up. You can't earn a living if you're dead. I suggest you listen to Robert's post because IMO it is dead on ( no pun intended)

Steve, I think parts of the economy will recover quickly and parts will not. I don’t see the travel industry recovering in time for the summer vacation time, especially the airlines. Are people doing to feel comfortable being packed on planes not knowing if someone is infected? Plus, we may see schools have summer sessions to make up for all the lost spring time which would keep people home.

Restaurants are also going to lag in the recovery. The use of masks in public may be the norm and that would be hard in a restaurant.

 

[steve williams]

Steve, I think parts of the economy will recover quickly and parts will not. I don’t see the travel industry recovering in time for the summer vacation time, especially the airlines. Are people doing to feel comfortable being packed on planes not knowing if someone is infected? Plus, we may see schools have summer sessions to make up for all the lost spring time which would keep people home.

Restaurants are also going to lag in the recovery. The use of masks in public may be the norm and that would be hard in a restaurant.

I can't dispute that argument one bit. I agree

I think the world has changed forever because of this. The thought of going to concerts, the symphony, the opera, the movies or any sports function will forever give people pause for concern as this virus isn't going anywhere until we have a vaccine that confers immunity

 

[dminches]

I can't dispute that argument one bit. I agree

I think the world has changed forever because of this. The thought of going to concerts, the symphony, the opera, the movies or any sports function will forever give people pause for concern as this virus isn't going anywhere until we have a vaccine

Sigh.

 

[steve williams]

I know how modeling works, it does start somewhere and it can be programmed to come up with intended results one way or another. We shut down the lives of 300 million just in this country based on this and the say so of "experts" few had heard of before.

I appreciate surfki's efforts but doctors have put their lives on the line on many previous occasions, what's different this time? My mother was intubated in February after she had a heart attack and came down with pneumonia, so what?

I certainly love the elderly (we're closing ranks soon !) and would never want them to be sacrificed for anything but I don't want to sacrifice the future of the young based on faulty predictions. It's not a knee jerk reaction on my part, I've been thinking this way from the start.

david

as Spock in Star Trek stated.....The Needs of the Many Outweigh The Needs of the Few, and the one

 

[Al M.]

I totally disagree. These experts are doing what they do best and that is giving us data based on what we know at the moment. This is NOT a static situation but one highly dynamic which changes daily. I laud them for their efforts

Indeed. Claiming otherwise is not understanding how science works.

But some people are suspicious of scientists in the first place, and reflexively assume ulterior motives on their part. The mistrust of expertise is a part of why we are in the situation that we are in. Strict measures have been implemented later than they should have been. It's not just lives that have been lost, resuscitating the economy quickly will also be that much harder.

 

[DaveC]

Maybe we can take this opportunity to re-evaluate our way of life?

I don't think this pandemic happened as a result of completely random chance, it's a wake-up call to shift to a more sustainable lifestyle in terms of the economy, food-production, employment, health-care, energy use, etc.

As I've said many times, building Teslas isn't going to solve anything. The only thing that's going to preserve life on earth as we know it is a major shift in lifestyle.

 

[steve williams]

Maybe we can take this opportunity to re-evaluate our way of life?

I don't think this pandemic happened as a result of completely random chance, it's a wake-up call to shift to a more sustainable lifestyle in terms of the economy, food-production, employment, health-care, energy use, etc.

As I've said many times, building Teslas isn't going to solve anything. The only thing that's going to preserve life on earth as we know it is a major shift in lifestyle.

I believe this pandemic is going to take us in a new direction

 

[Barry2013]

Deaths in the UK reported today fell from 938 the previous day to 881.
Welcome but not possible to draw any conclusions.
Boris Johnson has come out of intensive care but remains in hospital.
Lockdown to remain in place and no indication of for how much longer

 

[Folsom]

For what little I know about this virus, IMO herd immunization is flirting with the devil as there will for sure be heaviest losses in the older age group. Have a look at Italy and talk about herd immunity or the UK where it was suggested.

Arm chair quarterbacking IMO is a dangerous thing because when you are sitting on the sidelines with no concept of the severity of the disease it is easy to talk herd immunity but I would proffer a guess that if it were you faced with the possibility of being placed in a medically induced coma and ventilated and might never wake up I would suggest you would be a bird of a different feather

I had a thought on the herd immunity thing. While it's possibly inevitable, there would be one way to do it without over running everything so badly... Quarantine for only the elderly and their care takers (and the rare immune deficient etc). The issue is that you need to prep for it. That might be a way to open a country back up if we can get caught up on PPE, cleaning supplies, etc etc. But it does mean elderly are going to be quarantined for months. Everyone else gets it, becomes immune, and after awhile no one is able to spread it since no one will have it.

Possible? Yes. Plausible? I don't know. A possibility if it is? I don't know. Planning something like that might be too big, and with international travel it's hard to keep as regulated as one may wish for it to be.

 

[steve williams]

I had a thought on the herd immunity thing. While it's possibly inevitable, there would be one way to do it without over running everything so badly... Quarantine for only the elderly and their care takers (and the rare immune deficient etc). The issue is that you need to prep for it. That might be a way to open a country back up if we can get caught up on PPE, cleaning supplies, etc etc. But it does mean elderly are going to be quarantined for months. Everyone else gets it, becomes immune, and after awhile no one is able to spread it since no one will have it.

Possible? Yes. Plausible? I don't know. A possibility if it is? I don't know. Planning something like that might be too big, and with international travel it's hard to keep as regulated as one may wish for it to be.

well lets go back to the initial projections of the modeling. If we did nothing (herd immunity) the loss of lives would have been between 2-6 million people.

Surely you can't agree with that

 

[DaveC]

I had a thought on the herd immunity thing. While it's possibly inevitable, there would be one way to do it without over running everything so badly... Quarantine for only the elderly and their care takers (and the rare immune deficient etc). The issue is that you need to prep for it. That might be a way to open a country back up if we can get caught up on PPE, cleaning supplies, etc etc. But it does mean elderly are going to be quarantined for months. Everyone else gets it, becomes immune, and after awhile no one is able to spread it since no one will have it.

Possible? Yes. Plausible? I don't know. A possibility if it is? I don't know. Planning something like that might be too big, and with international travel it's hard to keep as regulated as one may wish for it to be.

...

 

[andromedaaudio]

How does one explain ;

Sweden 10 milllion people 800 deaths
Holland 17 million people 2400 :

Sweden virtually no restrictions
In holland you get a fine if you are in a group of 390 euro and you have all kinds of measures
Social distancing is in place / quarantine
they closed of whole parks forests with the easter holiday etc etc
IMO there is a case to be made that a virus does not survive well outside , a lot of experts say that .
Staying indoors prolongs the life of a virus and it speads very easy .
A lot of mass transmissions have occured in nursing homes and religious gatherings

 

[Folsom]

Maybe we can take this opportunity to re-evaluate our way of life?

I don't think this pandemic happened as a result of completely random chance, it's a wake-up call to shift to a more sustainable lifestyle in terms of the economy, food-production, employment, health-care, energy use, etc.

As I've said many times, building Teslas isn't going to solve anything. The only thing that's going to preserve life on earth as we know it is a major shift in lifestyle.

I'd hope that it might but my trust in humans to be less selfish when it comes to certain things related to consuming to be... it's hard to have any. Plus people have different missions respective to how they see what is good/bad. For the most part I'll retain what I thought before, we mostly need new technology on that front.

Perhaps though people will reconsider our over-leveraged profitless type companies as being the ideal way to make money and dominate markets? 2008 would say it'll just be something else, not anything better. But when you have a bunch of working generations that have dealt with two crashes that might change the outlook a bit. Also I think all government is going to reconsider the fiasco that is gig-economy work. California was early to start the process to fight gig-economy work, but now probably all states will. (if anyone is unfamiliar the issue is gig-economy is massively supported by programs that everyone else pays for through taxes, because the "jobs" pay too little)

 

[PeterA]

Maybe we can take this opportunity to re-evaluate our way of life?

I don't think this pandemic happened as a result of completely random chance, it's a wake-up call to shift to a more sustainable lifestyle in terms of the economy, food-production, employment, health-care, energy use, etc.

As I've said many times, building Teslas isn't going to solve anything. The only thing that's going to preserve life on earth as we know it is a major shift in lifestyle.

That would be wonderful Dave.

I suspect the US will try to be more self reliant on things like medicines and perhaps manufacturing, building back our infrastructure, etc. We are already independent with energy and food. I also think there will be a reevaluation of globalism and free movement over borders. I agree with you and Steve that there will be change after this, and there is reason to be hopeful. However, I suspect some things will not change, and perhaps even get worse. Remember how embroiled the news was with the primary season before this crisis? I think the lead up to November will be nastier than ever, and, in that sense, this crisis will have taught us little. I may be wrong.

 

[DaveC]

How does one explain then that ;

Sweden 10 milllion people 800 deaths
Holland 17 million people 2400 :

Sweden virtually no restrictions
In holland you get a fine if you are in a group of 390 euro and you have all kinds of measures
Social distancing is in place / quarantine
they closed of whole parks forests with the easter holiday etc etc
IMO there is a case to be made that a virus does not survive well outside , a lot of experts say that .
Staying indoors prolongs the life iof a virus

It could be the infections started earlier and had more time, it could be mass transmissions from large public events like Mardi Gras and Spring Break here in the US, it could be that Sweden carefully tracked down known carriers and all their contacts using detectives like Iceland, etc...

 

[jeff1225]

How does one explain then that ;

Sweden 10 milllion people 800 deaths
Holland 17 million people 2400 :

Sweden virtually no restrictions
In holland you get a fine if you are in a group of 390 euro and you have all kinds of measures
Social distancing is in place / quarantine
they closed of whole parks forests with the easter holiday etc etc
IMO there is a case to be made that a virus does not survive well outside , a lot of experts say that .
Staying indoors prolongs the life iof a virus and it speads very easy .
A lot of mass transmissions have occured in nursing homes and religious gatherings

History is not yet written in regards to Sweden. It will be interesting to see where they are when this is all over.

 

[Gregadd]

What does this crisis have to do with bullets? Not everyone agrees that the US Govt. response is tepid, and how would you know what everyone expected?

I find the disparity of opinions to be astonishing. While one side celebrates that perhaps the estimated 100K-240K death count seems to be going down, and they turn their attention to the damaged economy and figuring out ways to get people back to work, the other side keeps talking about how our government is in disarray and completely incompetent, that there are lots of shortages, the number of cases keeps climbing, that the worst is still ahead, and they advocate for extending the lock down, keeping the economy closed, and advocating for massive new spending to support an indefinite closure. And all the while, the bickering continues.

I am noticing that as the corona news starts to improve, the talk of blame and accountability is increasing. I had hoped this crisis would bring us closer together toward some kind of a common purpose and goal. Instead, I am disappointed and perplexed.

"Number one with a bullet" describes a meteoric rise of a hit record.
Math is not an opinion. You count the number of cases and deaths v time. The slope of that graph gives you a progression.
Science tells you how the disease is transmitted. Once you know that you take steps to interrupt it.
See previous posts on how our response has been inadequate.
Still praying you are right.

 

[Folsom]

How does one explain then that ;

Sweden 10 milllion people 800 deaths
Holland 17 million people 2400 :

Sweden virtually no restrictions
In holland you get a fine if you are in a group of 390 euro and you have all kinds of measures
Social distancing is in place / quarantine
they closed of whole parks forests with the easter holiday etc etc
IMO there is a case to be made that a virus does not survive well outside , a lot of experts say that .
Staying indoors prolongs the life iof a virus

Stress may be a big factor. It is for cardiovascular health and having cv19 can be like developing cardiovascular disease "overnight" for a lot of people.

Honestly though we need data to make a conclusion. For all we know they're going to get hit hard within a month. And we don't know if the old people are self quarantining, or how many might not be alive in their home.

 

[Folsom]

"Number one with a bullet" describes a meteoric rise of a hit record.
Math is not an opinion. You count the number of cases and deaths v time. The slope of that graph gives you a progression.
Science tells you how the disease is transmitted. Once you know that you take steps to interrupt it.
See previous posts on how our response has been inadequate.
Still praying you are right.

We still have no idea how many have had it total. The picture isn't complete. Math is as accurate as the data going into it. I think we're all praying that our data is insufficient enough that things will be much better than any projection gives us.