Sure human behavior is difficult to predict.
It might surprise you how many industrys depend on such projections fo survival.
I believe it is called the American Actuarial Society.
You may be surprised to know that I am an actuary and a member of the American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries.
Actuaries do depend on incidence rates to understand the cost of a risk but that data is only valuable after the fact. Right now it is just numbers that are changing daily. There is nothing that any actuary would use at this point to develop a meaningful statistic.
But, as the data continues to develop it does not seem as though it is that much worse, if at all, than the seasonal flu with respect to mortality rates or illness severity.
This is a tough one, I thought 2019 was a struggle and was ready for a new decade with new products and a new website. I joined a mt bike race team and got a new race bike, got my car ready for some track driving... Now It's looking like I'll need to find another job to augment my income as spending is going to slow down, I'll be worrying about my parents in their mid 70's dying from a pandemic virus, races and driving events are likely going to be canceled.
So many people are going to be unemployed or underemployed while the world tries to stop the spread of this virus, and in the US most folks don't have much cushion in their finances. Most people have parents, grandparents and older family members that are going to die. This could be very difficult...
I wish for the best for all of us, and hope we can cooperate more than compete with each other as this drags on... this is a challenging moment in time for all humanity, and is obviously going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
It looks like it's spreading all around the US, we weren't prepared and have no clue how bad it is right now. I know there have been about 8 folks with the virus locally, in my own town as of now and it may have spread through the schools already. In Aspen a tourist infected a bunch of people, and the extent of that is unknown too, some at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and more. This is all of a sudden turning into a reality for all of us...
Those are aggregate mortality rates. What is the mortality rate for flu victims who are 75 and older? Italy's average age is much higher than the rest of the world. The flu rate of 0.1% is across all ages. It is not comparable to the 5%. Plus, the virus has not run its course. The 0.1% is based on data over many years.
It's interesting that with the flu, which is reported to be so much more deadly, pretty much nothing is closed down. With Corona, major universities across the US (Harvard, Berkeley, Ohio State and many more) are literally shutting down classes temporarily.
Government institutions are going to probably be working from home vs in Washington (nothing lost here. Major sporting events, industry events, music events (Coachella), St. Patrick's Day Parades, you name it are either already postponed/cancelled or considering cancellation.
When our daily lives are hopefully temporarily changing and they definitely are in many places, then to me, it seems as though it is a different situation than the flu.
This is because people grow up knowing the flu since childhood. It’s normal no matter how deadly it is. Now, this CV is new and exciting. People love the drama and living in false fear. They feed off it. They need it to fulfill something in their lives that’s missing. This will pass and it’ll be onto the next big thing. At least we haven’t heard anything about climate change wiping out mankind in 12 years since this CV hype started!
This is because people grow up knowing the flu since childhood. It’s normal no matter how deadly it is. Now, this CV is new and exciting. People love the drama and living in false fear. They feed off it. They need it to fulfill something in their lives that’s missing. This will pass and it’ll be onto the next big thing. At least we haven’t heard anything about climate change wiping out mankind in 12 years since this CV hype started!
Interesting perspective, my perspective is different and it's only that, your perspective and my perspective I feel that we are in un-chartered territory now and only time will tell how this shakes out. I hope you are correct in your assumptions!!!
Interesting perspective, my perspective is different and it's only that, your perspective and my perspective I feel that we are in un-chartered territory now and only time will tell how this shakes out. I hope you are correct in your assumptions!!!
Another perspective is that people have no protection against the CV other than their own immune system. On the other hand people have some sense of protection if they have gotten a flu shot. The shot isn’t perfect and doesn’t always cover the popular strain each year but at least one can feel like they aren’t fighting it on their own. Plus, health professionals have experience dealing with patients with the flu. They are learning new things every day with the CV.
Scroll down to "Daily New Cases Outside of China." It looks to me like daily growth in the number of cases is approximately linear rather than exponential at this time. My guess is this indicates containment efforts have been partially successful.
‘I’m not sure I would agree with that Marc. what has happened to Italy could happen to the UK and others. Even if you don’t worry about yourself, you should worry for those demographics likely to suffer the most.
The most comical part of this mass hysteria is that the VAST majority of people (speaking of the USA) do nothing to stay healthy in the first place. They eat a garbage diet, smoke, drink, and don't exercise. Wait, that would require personal responsibility! That's no fun. People always need to blame their problems on something else. Victim mentality.
Re the comparisons with flu my impression is that Covid 19 is more easily transmitted than influenza and because it is new and not so easily recognisable,with many people not aware that they have the virus there, is a need for additional precautions.
Is my understanding correct?
Big question? Are we actually up to this. As a species? For my entire life I have believed so, I have hoped so. But perhaps we have stressed ourselves as a species and the whole of the very planet that gave us life into some kind of dark reckoning. Our crazy global behaviour is so clearly and evidently coming back to haunt us. We have created the circumstances of a potential great species failure. We are travelling on the very rim of just so many planetary boundaries. We have stressed the environment and our species to the point where extinction in many ways imminently threatens us in a seeming range of ways.
A friend asked me today if I felt that if human activity threatened all the rest of the planet whether we should then consider allowing ourselves to pass into history and consider sacrificing the hominid line to protect the rest of life on this planet. Such a question! Is our species indeed so special? Are we the summation of evolution or perhaps even just another dead end of development. Are we the very next in a line of many dinosaurs?
I love humanity but perhaps we just don’t have it in us to succeed. I do wish we did. We live in a time when perhaps we will actually discover our true worth as a species or we will simply fail and fade into the horizon in some short, sad blip of an evolutionary radar that may just pass and leave us behind.
Something great should become of this planet. Something needs to become great in us. The heavens are watching. The earth is watching. But we clearly have to stop just watching ourselves and need to now be doing and resolving to become something more equitable and bearable and truly viable. How many signs do we need that what we are doing just isn’t viable any more?
This is clearly a time for phenomenal and fundamental change. I hope we are actually up to it. Every hope that I have is that we are truly a deserving part of the earth’s future. I do believe that the next 50 to 100 years are make or break for us. Perhaps we shall see.
Re the comparisons with flu my impression is that Covid 19 is more easily transmitted than influenza and because it is new and not so easily recognisable,with many people not aware that they have the virus there, is a need for additional precautions.
Is my understanding correct?
You may be surprised to know that I am an actuary and a member of the American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries.
Actuaries do depend on incidence rates to understand the cost of a risk but that data is only valuable after the fact. Right now it is just numbers that are changing daily. There is nothing that any actuary would use at this point to develop a meaningful statistic.
Congratulations.
Allow me to be more specific.
While we have little or no experience with this disease we have had other pandemics. We can create a model based on that data.
I believe this is done all the time and is reasonably accurate. I spoke of a model.
It may be that a linear progression can be infinite.
The model I gave is called Fibinacci numbers.
It is a hypthesis. I hope it is never realized.
I am actually starting to feel what Wisnon said "It will be gone by summer."
1) Everyone is at full alert and adapt for preventive measures by then.
2) Summer hurts virus.
Hot climate will control the virus as the nature takes its own course I believe. We are entering summer. My skin was burning just standing in the sun yesterday for five minutes. Infection rate here seems under control. Certainly not because of our gov't response to the virus. So I think just do what you need to do to not put your fingers to your mouth, nose. And avoid public contact for some period. The rise in temperature will help control it.
So then one could project the number of deaths caused by a new drug. You could make a decision that profit v. cost of lawsuits is an acceptible risk.
Now the answer may not be dead on but reasonably accurate.
. Major sporting events, industry events, music events (Coachella), St. Patrick's Day Parades, you name it are either already postponed/cancelled or considering cancellation.
