Coronavirus ...

[NorthStar]

You may be surprised to know that I am an actuary and a member of the American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries.

Actuaries do depend on incidence rates to understand the cost of a risk but that data is only valuable after the fact. Right now it is just numbers that are changing daily. There is nothing that any actuary would use at this point to develop a meaningful statistic.

How long would it take, roughly, for the Academy and the Society to collect data that is relevant and valuable and scientifically meaningful after the passing of Coronavirus, if ever it disappears entirely forever and never to come back?
Most likely such data is impossible to collect accurately across the entire globe, and we us mere mortals, with our world health organization of scientists use our best common sense to evaluate, to protect, to prepare, to prevent the most unpredictable world viruses, unknown to the health community of scientists like Coronavirus. ...Or very little of it, mainly the family and possible diffetent strains and waves. And the fact that no vaccine exists and won't for a minimum of twelve to eighteen months.

May I ask (without googling it) what is the purpose of the Academy and Society of Actuaries?
...In a specific health case like here with the Coronavirus.
_____

* A simple short addition on the state of plane travelling ...

This morning when I opened the door it was windy outside, and I was thinking what that wind might bring. I just opened my computer few minutes ago to check my mail and my appointments; the North American markets are considerably up, very normal that they fluctuate like this, and more Coronavirus measures are in effect all over the globe, something we are not used to read in every day normal life. It is now part of everywhere, and right here close to home, and we adapt to it, and tomorrow never knows.

I agree with what Graham said earlier; this is a new world. ...Our world to us all; old, middle, young and from all classes...poor and wealthy, sick and healthy. ...And from all acts of life; factory workers, movie stars, rodeo riders, farmers, real estate, market watchers, Tesla workers, investors, audiophiles, world leaders.

 

[PeterA]

I can proudly say not one case in my county. The pubs and eateries are busy, young and old out alike. The scaremongering on this is plain loco.

Our govt advice...if you have the merest sniffle or tickly cough, self isolate for 2 wks, no exceptions. Give me a break.

Marc, what happened to those two schools that were shut down? Have they reopened with no cases reported?

 

[NorthStar]

Pretty much. Emerging diseases are always a worry until they can be quantified.

Absolutely, it is human nature to rely on the science, the quantifiable, the data.
Short of that we are swimming fishes in uncharted waters of the oceans connecting us all.
...Or flying blind in the skies above.

 

[NorthStar]

Magnesium citrate. Ashwaganda root herb. Milk of Magnesia... Meditation.

Pretty good ...

 

[wisnon]

Sure human behavior is difficult to predict.
It might surprise you how many industrys depend on such projections fo survival.
I believe it is called the American Actuarial Society.

I told you a few Days ago that DMinches was a LIFE Actuary!!!!!

 

[wisnon]

I have no idea who Fink even is, but if he is a doctor, which I would think he is, and he's been treating the flu for 30 years and he says that he is more worried about this more than ever in his past, it's one tiny data point, from someone on the front lines, dealing with patients. Nothing more than a tiny data point, but it is contradictory to most other things I've heard over the last few days.

Bob, we have experience with over 115K diagnoses and circa 30K of that outside China...we can start to form a reasonable picture. The doctor sounds very alarmist...BASED ON AVAILABLE data.

Of course some young people will suffer too...afterall the death rate is never ZERO for any age group.

 

[NorthStar]

Norm, I like your last recommendation; meditation. ...Music is good too.

 

[NorthStar]

Italian doctor telling the real situation in Italy (real deal), please watch (listen) ...

 

[wisnon]

Mortality rate in Italy is already over 5%. Flu is 0.1%.

By extrapolation then...with 70m population, if everyone got it this (we have no herd immunity is the mantra being touted), there would be 3.5m dead in Italy.

That would make it similar to the fatality rate of the Spanish Flu...if we estimate it killed 75m out of 1.5b global population...at a time the entire planet was virtually living in 3rd world conditions and medical practice was more primitive. That strikes me as outlandish, personally.

 

[wisnon]

Norm, I like your last recommendation; meditation. ...Music is good too.

Better learn to love the magnesium citrate recommendation too. Magnesium is the SUPER mineral, really a co-enzyme and is vital for over 350 metabolic processes in the body!!!

 

[Barry2013]

That's cheered me up.
I have been taking selenium for years and last week when I went to stock up there was an offer on selenium with zinc which I took advantage of.

 

[wisnon]

This is a tough one, I thought 2019 was a struggle and was ready for a new decade with new products and a new website. I joined a mt bike race team and got a new race bike, got my car ready for some track driving... Now It's looking like I'll need to find another job to augment my income as spending is going to slow down, I'll be worrying about my parents in their mid 70's dying from a pandemic virus, races and driving events are likely going to be canceled.

So many people are going to be unemployed or underemployed while the world tries to stop the spread of this virus, and in the US most folks don't have much cushion in their finances. Most people have parents, grandparents and older family members that are going to die. This could be very difficult...

I wish for the best for all of us, and hope we can cooperate more than compete with each other as this drags on... this is a challenging moment in time for all humanity, and is obviously going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

It looks like it's spreading all around the US, we weren't prepared and have no clue how bad it is right now. I know there have been about 8 folks with the virus locally, in my own town as of now and it may have spread through the schools already. In Aspen a tourist infected a bunch of people, and the extent of that is unknown too, some at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and more. This is all of a sudden turning into a reality for all of us...

I sympathize Dave, but it is life.

I am originally from Jamaica. The mosquito Bourne Chik-V virus decimated the Caribbean and Central America in 2014/5. It is a hemorrhagic fever like dengue (micro bleeding internal). Any 70+ person with significant concomitant disease was taken...sometimes people didn't see the link until a year or 2 later. 50 year olds were using walking canes for up to 6 months post recovery. There are many threats out there and we just have to battle on as best we can.

Avoiding most bites in the tropic is a futile exercise...one does the best one can.

 

[NorthStar]

Better learn to love the magnesium citrate recommendation too. Magnesium is the SUPER mineral, really a co-enzyme and is vital for over 350 metabolic processes in the body!!!

Where do you buy this magnesium citrate?
...Magnesium citrate. Ashwaganda root herb. Milk of Magnesia...

 

[Steve williams]

Magnesium citrate is Milk of Magnesia

Great laxative Bob. Any pharmacy in the world sells it

 

[dminches]

How long would it take, roughly, for the Academy and the Society to collect data that is relevant and valuable and scientifically meaningful after the passing of Coronavirus, if ever it disappears entirely forever and never to come back?

It wouldn’t take more than a couple months but the question is how good is the data? If there are mild cases there is no way of knowing how many people were actually infected. Probabilities and statistics are only as good as the underlying data.

 

[wisnon]

It's interesting that with the flu, which is reported to be so much more deadly, pretty much nothing is closed down. With Corona, major universities across the US (Harvard, Berkeley, Ohio State and many more) are literally shutting down classes temporarily.

Government institutions are going to probably be working from home vs in Washington (nothing lost here. Major sporting events, industry events, music events (Coachella), St. Patrick's Day Parades, you name it are either already postponed/cancelled or considering cancellation.

When our daily lives are hopefully temporarily changing and they definitely are in many places, then to me, it seems as though it is a different situation than the flu.

Bob, that is not proof!

The point is that I and others feel the overreaction is disproportionate to the data we are seeing. It is bad if it develops complications and bad for old people and people with certain issues and generally anyone immune compromised. It can also threaten the health infrastructure if there are lots of lung cases. As already shown by me ,if you follow my posts here, BOTH Italy and China have monstrously bad air pollution in their major cities. Just today at breakfast and Italian colleague from ROME reminded me of how Milan had to take drastic measure back in Dec because of the foul air. Recipe for pneumonia that!

 

[wisnon]

It wouldn’t take more than a couple months but the question is how good is the data? If there are mild cases there is no way of knowing how many people were actually infected. Probabilities and statistics are only as good as the underlying data.

GIGO...I made that point earlier.
Deaths we always report...infections we don't, especially mild cases...they go under the radar. If Italy has thousands of cases, so do their neighbors.

 

[NorthStar]

Magnesium citrate is Milk of Magnesia

Great laxative Bob. Any pharmacy in the world sells it

And that would be recommended for Coronavirus?
How come I didn't read that in the health scientific news of recommendations recently?

 

[NorthStar]

It wouldn’t take more than a couple months but the question is how good is the data? If there are mild cases there is no way of knowing how many people were actually infected. Probabilities and statistics are only as good as the underlying data.

I understand the enormous difficulty to collect such data with the circumstances.
We humans have so much more advancements to make ...

 

[the sound of Tao]

Or maybe a decimation or two is part of the solution ?

It would be scary to think that after over a Millenia in gentle deep slumber we have woken lovely Mrs Mother Nature up with all our loud partying and carrying on and she has decided to do something about clearing out the neighbourhood .