Coronavirus ...
- Thread starter NorthStar
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He's an acquired music genre taste. I have few CDs of him somewhere ...
He's not Canadian ...
• https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_Manson
He's not Canadian ...
• https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_Manson
Your Health Minister isn't doing too well. Maybe more measures are coming out.
Bob my 83 year old mum was in intensive care twice this last 12 months literally knocking on death’s door. Twice she was in my arms at her home as I waited for paramedics to arrive. Once was with pneumonia (which developed also into cardiac related issues and has left scarring on her lungs), the second time after a fall down 14 steps in the middle of the night just two days after getting out 8 weeks in intensive care for pneumonia (she has a medical alert and I am her first responder) and she was then later also isolated in a tuberculosis ward because of ongoing unrelenting respiratory issues (thankfully she was cleared of TB).
My dad is 85 and he lives separately and he has had significant heart issues and has a pacemaker and also just got through a battle with leukaemia two years ago.
I have tried to convince both my parents to be super vigilant and avoid any unnecessary interaction in public places over the next weeks and both look at me like I’m an idiot. They may well be right but after watching the video on the Italian doctor in charge of intensive care in Lombardy more than ever the notion that the aged may well be passed over in intensive care due to triage protocols during the onslaught of a pandemic is a beyond haunting thought. The idea that the vulnerable may be sacrificed is a horrendous notion itself and clearly an increasing issue going forwards in a world completely struggling to find ways to deal with a seeming increasing rate of global emergencies. Both my parents still just assume Australia’s great medical system will have the capacity to save them.
Having seen the virtual melt down in Lombardy where one the richest and most developed regions in Italy has been unable to deal with the wave of infections I’m just not so sure any more that living in any developed nation with good medical infrastructure is a reason to be at all complacent these days. Their generation have phenomenal faith in medical technology and the expectation of medical salvation. In a pandemic they may just be assigned as some of the expected casualties with very high risk and relatively low returns and simply not eligible for a place in the IC queue.
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Adam,
I did some math.
If we use global figures including China, the monthly increase in cases is 2.8x, if we use the last 6 days, its 1.25x.
If we exclude China (whose figures recently look suspiciously good), the RoW monthly increase is 83x and the latest 6 day increase is 3x (equal to 243x on a monthly compounding basis).
Using RoW monthly rate, we get 3.1m cases by Apr 10, 263m by Apr 10 and 21b by Jun 10 (impossible, as only 6.5B popn ex China). So this peaks in late May with 100% infected or early May at 60% infected.
Using the 6 day growth rate extrapolated (worse case?), we get 9.3m infected by Apr 10, 2.3b infected by May 10 and 6.7b by mid May.
Mid May is the peak one way or another.
I suspect the growth will slow after 20% infected and with the increasing measures taken.
What is weird are the figures for China (too good recently) and Italy and Iran, compared to Sth Korea (way too bad...why is Italy such an outlier for the huge percentage of serious cases?) The profiles of Italy, China, Iran (0 serious cases now), vs other EU and RoW seems like we are looking at 4 DIFFERENT diseases. We have enough mass of cases in most places to see decent patterns now. The virulency of Italy is off the chain, could it be the combination of the 2nd most aged population in the world plus foul air in their major metropoles (Milan/Turin/Rome)? China is the champion of foul air of course.
I did some math.
If we use global figures including China, the monthly increase in cases is 2.8x, if we use the last 6 days, its 1.25x.
If we exclude China (whose figures recently look suspiciously good), the RoW monthly increase is 83x and the latest 6 day increase is 3x (equal to 243x on a monthly compounding basis).
Using RoW monthly rate, we get 3.1m cases by Apr 10, 263m by Apr 10 and 21b by Jun 10 (impossible, as only 6.5B popn ex China). So this peaks in late May with 100% infected or early May at 60% infected.
Using the 6 day growth rate extrapolated (worse case?), we get 9.3m infected by Apr 10, 2.3b infected by May 10 and 6.7b by mid May.
Mid May is the peak one way or another.
I suspect the growth will slow after 20% infected and with the increasing measures taken.
What is weird are the figures for China (too good recently) and Italy and Iran, compared to Sth Korea (way too bad...why is Italy such an outlier for the huge percentage of serious cases?) The profiles of Italy, China, Iran (0 serious cases now), vs other EU and RoW seems like we are looking at 4 DIFFERENT diseases. We have enough mass of cases in most places to see decent patterns now. The virulency of Italy is off the chain, could it be the combination of the 2nd most aged population in the world plus foul air in their major metropoles (Milan/Turin/Rome)? China is the champion of foul air of course.
Insufficient testing everywhere for accurate records. However, test is not treatment or cure!
The numbers with the disease are far larger than reported. Mild cases can go under the radar, death doesn't.
The Death rate is lower than it seems, but the complications seem VERY serious and can overwhelm the HCS. That is the biggest worry. only so many ventilators to go around.
It is very well possible that the virus mutates rapidly, and thus we really are looking at different diseases. That is also why I am highly skeptical about a vaccine. Look how that turned out for the flu. The flu has been around for a very long time, but this year's flu vaccine has again been particularly bad, meaning ineffective. With the flu we are always fighting the last war, while the virus mutates beyond the newest vaccine. I suspect the same will happen with Coronavirus, once vaccine(s) becomes available.
Just like the flu, Coronavirus seems to be here to stay, unfortunately.
The CDC has already addressed this issue and says that any mutations are not an issue with respect to illness severity or treatment.
Here is one article about this: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/07/health/coronavirus-mutations-analysis/index.html
Thanks for the link.
Fine, but how do we know if Coronavirus does not reshuffle its genome as the flu virus does, which is why, as the article says, we need an annual flu vaccine? After all, Coronavirus is an RNA virus like the flu virus. The article is curiously silent about that.
You're funny. Then why did you bring up the name of our president? You started it.
Good questions of which I have no answers!
I do think COVID-19 is a different "version" of SARS since they are both coronaviruses. That is the extent of my understand of that aspect.
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