Coronavirus ...

[Steve williams]

I don't know why everyone is so fixated about absolutes.

Just trying to prevent some more mass hysteria

 

[howiebrou]

You tell me.....getting caught up in mass hysteria spreads as quickly or even quicker than the virus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-n95-face-masks.html

https://time.com/5794729/coronavirus-face-masks/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-what-the-virus-experts-have-to-say-quicktake

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/cor...s-work-and-how-to-stop-it-from-spreading.html

to name but a few

No one is getting caught up in hysteria. I have worked in infectious diseases since the 90's. Simple measures work that much we know and in the case of Covid-19 a mask will partially protect you from someone who may be spewing virus and not even know it including oneself. Reducing viral load in the environment will lead to a quicker recovery which is what everyone wants. Of course if you're in the middle of nowhere and you can do social distancing then the mask if less critical. I'm just hoping people don't dismiss measures that can help.

 

[howiebrou]

We all have a part to play if not for ourselves then our family members especially those high risk groups.

 

[howiebrou]

Just trying to prevent some more mass hysteria

I appreciate that Steve and conflicting measures often cause hysteria. I think we're firmly on the same page here.

 

[Steve williams]

We all have a part to play if not for ourselves then our family members especially those high risk groups.

Totally agree Howie

 

[Steve williams]

FWIW my younger daughter is an RN working in the Pediatric Oncology unit of Children's Hospital Orange County with very sick kids. She told me the hospital now doesn't even have enough face masks for the hospital employees or the patients

 

[Rhapsody]

Adam,

I did some math.
If we use global figures including China, the monthly increase in cases is 2.8x, if we use the last 6 days, its 1.25x.

If we exclude China (whose figures recently look suspiciously good), the RoW monthly increase is 83x and the latest 6 day increase is 3x (equal to 243x on a monthly compounding basis).

Using RoW monthly rate, we get 3.1m cases by Apr 10, 263m by Apr 10 and 21b by Jun 10 (impossible, as only 6.5B popn ex China). So this peaks in late May with 100% infected or early May at 60% infected.

Using the 6 day growth rate extrapolated (worse case?), we get 9.3m infected by Apr 10, 2.3b infected by May 10 and 6.7b by mid May.

Mid May is the peak one way or another.

I suspect the growth will slow after 20% infected and with the increasing measures taken.

What is weird are the figures for China (too good recently) and Italy and Iran, compared to Sth Korea (way too bad...why is Italy such an outlier for the huge percentage of serious cases?) The profiles of Italy, China, Iran (0 serious cases now), vs other EU and RoW seems like we are looking at 4 DIFFERENT diseases. We have enough mass of cases in most places to see decent patterns now. The virulency of Italy is off the chain, could it be the combination of the 2nd most aged population in the world plus foul air in their major metropoles (Milan/Turin/Rome)? China is the champion of foul air of course.

Norman,

I look at your numbers that you ran and then I watch this guy and it seems like such a difference in opinion.

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe

What his running of the numbers say is:

48 million hospitalisations
96 million cases
Over 480,000 deaths

If you watch this for the first five minutes or so I would be interested on your opinion. Just trying to get a clear picture.

 

[wisnon]

I will take a look Bob and get back to you later...
Cheers

 

[Duke LeJeune]

FWIW my younger daughter is an RN working in the Pediatric Oncology unit of Children's Hospital Orange County with very sick kids. She told me the hospital now doesn't even have enough face masks for the hospital employees or the patients

Wow that is discouraging.

Is it worthwhile to sterilize and recycle? Or are the masks single-use no matter what?

Are there any viable alternatives? Stagecoach bandits and their bandannas come to mind.

I use dust masks routinely because I make a lot of sawdust building bass guitar cabinets, and all of the local hardware stores have been sold out for weeks. So I have been vacuuming used masks and re-using them... not ideal, but better than nothing for sawdust.

 

[NorthStar]

The World Health Organization today uses the word Pandemic to declare the situation.

? https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ates-live-u-s-cases-top-1-000-spread-n1155241

This is no drill ...

 

[NorthStar]

Bob my 83 year old mum was in intensive care twice this last 12 months literally knocking on death’s door. Twice she was in my arms at her home as I waited for paramedics to arrive. Once was with pneumonia (which developed also into cardiac related issues and has left scarring on her lungs), the second time after a fall down 14 steps in the middle of the night just two days after getting out 8 weeks in intensive care for pneumonia (she has a medical alert and I am her first responder) and she was then later also isolated in a tuberculosis ward because of ongoing unrelenting respiratory issues (thankfully she was cleared of TB).

My dad is 85 and he lives separately and he has had significant heart issues and has a pacemaker and also just got through a battle with leukaemia two years ago.

I have tried to convince both my parents to be super vigilant and avoid any unnecessary interaction in public places over the next weeks and both look at me like I’m an idiot. They may well be right but after watching the video on the Italian doctor in charge of intensive care in Lombardy more than ever the notion that the aged may well be passed over in intensive care due to triage protocols during the onslaught of a pandemic is a beyond haunting thought. The idea that the vulnerable may be sacrificed is a horrendous notion itself and clearly an increasing issue going forwards in a world completely struggling to find ways to deal with a seeming increasing rate of global emergencies. Both my parents still just assume Australia’s great medical system will have the capacity to save them.

Having seen the virtual melt down in Lombardy where one the richest and most developed regions in Italy has been unable to deal with the wave of infections I’m just not so sure any more that living in any developed nation with good medical infrastructure is a reason to be at all complacent these days. Their generation have phenomenal faith in medical technology and the expectation of medical salvation. In a pandemic they may just be assigned as some of the expected casualties with very high risk and relatively low returns and simply not eligible for a place in the IC queue.

Graham, thank you for sharing close to the heart private family matters.
This is important some of what you've just said above.

Let me share back some ...
My Dad is gone but my Mom is alive and the best Mom I still have, she's 85.
I mentioned on another site to keep an eye on our parents and grand parents.
But if you do so be tested first. And make sure where they live they aren't around Coronavirus carriers. That's very tough, and that's part of this tragedy. It not only touches us but all of us.

Be well, your parents, your family, your friends, me and all of us.

 

[dminches]

What his running of the numbers say is:

48 million hospitalisations
96 million cases
Over 480,000 deaths

I can't tell if these numbers are US numbers or global. I think they are US only.

People need to take the "running of the numbers" with a grain of salt. Projections are highly dependent on the assumptions used to drive them. Assumptions are guesses. One could take the same model, adjust a couple assumptions, and come up with very different results.

I have no idea how they set the assumptions and if they are supportable.

Interestingly, his projected death rate is "only" 0.5%.

For comparison purposes, 1 billion people get the flu every year worldwide. 45 million Americans are infected each year.

If the numbers above are just US it means that he predicts CV will have twice the incidence rate as flu in the US. In another discussion he said 20-60% of Americans would be infected. That comes to 66 to 200 million. This doesn't tie to his 96 million cases. I also can't see 50% of the people needed hospitalizations.

Something doesn't seem right with these numbers.

I can't refute what he is saying but I think he is a bit of an alarmist. That doesn't mean that this isn't a serious situation.

He mentions obesity as a risk factor. I have seen no statistics showing the severity of the illness or death based on level of obesity. I think he is guessing here.

 

[Elberoth]

This is BY FAR the best article on coronavirus. You can skip the rest.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[Steve williams]

This is BY FAR the best article on coronavirus. You can skip the rest.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

So who is Tomas Pueyo and what is his medical background

medium.com is not what I would use as a reference.

 

[Tango]

I very much agree with Howie. Face mask is good. Only down side is the supply. Like Howie said scientific study in Singapore said around 5 meters. The face mask protect you from that partially. What the face mask does is also reducing a super spread from persons who don't even know they have it. And the face mask reduce the chance of us unconsciously touch our mouth and nose. Human touch their mouth and nose unconsciously. Wash your hands at all time. If you have been to travel to the place identified with infection,, go back home and quarantine yourself for 14 days not going out places. Acting socially responsible is the ultimate control of this virus. Many asian countries are getting discipline on this and realize it is the way to control the outbreak. Those who are hit first learn first.

 

[the sound of Tao]

Graham, thank you for sharing close to the heart private family matters.
This is important some of what you've just said above.

Let me share back some ...
My Dad is gone but my Mom is alive and the best Mom I still have, she's 85.
I mentioned on another site to keep an eye on our parents and grand parents.
But if you do so be tested first. And make sure where they live they aren't around Coronavirus carriers. That's very tough, and that's part of this tragedy. It not only touches us but all of us.

Be well, your parents, your family, your friends, me and all of us.

Thanks Bob, yes, helping the ones around you and where possible looking after others as well as yourself is where it all starts. We do have to be responsible and minimise risk where possible. I went into a larger general practice clinic waiting room yesterday (as I had an unavoidable doctors appointment otherwise I would have avoided it) and you could cut the tension in the room with a knife when two of the people there (a young child and an older woman) had little incidents of repeated coughing. The nursing staff and my doctor all looked tense and considerably more stressed than usual. It’s especially tough for those on the front line of the health system at the moment.

 

[Steve williams]

I very much agree with Howie. Face mask is good. Only down side is the supply. Like Howie said scientific study in Singapore said around 5 meters. The face mask protect you from that partially. What the face mask does is also reducing a super spread from persons who don't even know they have it. And the face mask reduce the chance of us unconsciously touch our mouth and nose. Human touch their mouth and nose unconsciously. Wash your hands at all time. Acting socially responsible is the ultimate control of this virus. Many asian countries are getting discipline on this and realize it is the way to control the outbreak. Those who are hit first learn first.

So you are saying that if you are out and about every one should be wearing masks?

i also believe that the use of masks IMO is far more prevalent in SE Asia. More people are wearing them there on a daily basis when they go out even when they have zero concern about anything. Merely prophylactic

BTW I do agree about the 5 meter spray distance. It is this statistic that the airline industry is also getting killed.

The other caveat is that many ( if not most) of all masks worn are not surgical grade and do little if anything in the prevention of transmission of disease)

 

[Tango]

So you are saying that if you are out and about every one should be wearing masks?

i also believe that the use of masks IMO is far more prevalent in SE Asia. More people are wearing them there on a daily basis when they go out even when they have zero concern about anything. Merely prophylactic

BTW I do agree about the 5 meter spray distance. It is this statistic that the airline industry is also getting killed.

The other caveat is that many ( if not most) of all masks worn are not surgical grade and do little if anything in the prevention of transmission of disease)

I am saying the more times you wear mask the better. And it is a must when going in crowded public places once infection is happening. More often it is the negligence that creates unnecessary regret.

Regarding the type of mask. You learn which one to buy.. info is everywhere. People in the countries with PM 2.5 dust air problem are more informed of mask types and you don't need a PM2.5 mask for this virus. It just feels a little awkward wearing mask at first but same as everything else you get used to, and people don't give you funny look after a while. In fact a feeling of appreciation rises once you see others respect your safety by wearing a mask.

 

[Steve williams]

I am saying the more times you wear mask the better. And it is a must when going in crowded public places once infection is happening. More often it is the negligence that creates unnecessary regret.

Regarding the type of mask. You learn which one to buy.. info is everywhere. People in the countries with PM 2.5 dust air problem are more informed of mask types and you don't need a PM2.5 mask for this virus. It just feels a little awkward wearing mask at first but same as everything else you get used to, and people don't give you funny look after a while. If fact a feeling of appreciation rises once you see others respect your safety by wearing a mask.

I maintain that the masks you wear are mostly inept at the prevention of transmission. You need a micropore filter in the mask and I bet most of the masks yiure using lack

 

[NorthStar]

? https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...he-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020

"We have therefore made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic."