This Corona Virus Mania is Just Too Much, We All Need to Chill!

[ddk]

If I were trying to attract the members of WBF to vote for a resolution summarizing an attempt at a consensus view -- trying to maximize the number of "Yea" votes -- I would propose the following:

Resolved:

1) Initially POTUS misunderstood the medical threat of the virus and wrongly downplayed and dismissed it.

2) The initial federal response to the virus was slow and erratic because of, among other reasons, legacy bureaucratic rules at government health agencies regarding testing protocols and approval procedures, inadequate supplies of personal protective equipment and virus tests, inaccurate and inconsistent pronouncements by the W.H.O., and 1) above.

3) Since the slow and halting start in 1) and 2) POTUS has understood and accepted the magnitude of the virus problem, and has empowered medical, health, economic and financial members of the administration to energize significant and impressive government and private sector responses to the pandemic.


* * *

Legislation is not perfect. A good piece of legislation leaves everybody who voted for it somewhat dissatisfied. The perfect is not allowed to be the enemy of the good.

Could this compromise resolution attract majority WBF support?

Doubt it! We're still as divided as ever and sadly nothing will change this going forward, even an invasion from outer space. They'll blame it on his Spaceforce !

david

 

[dminches]

Without hysteria. People die it's a fact of life but the number of dead doesn't change that 98% recovered, also according to the data collected from here and other countries the virus follows a bell curve, it peaks and then comes down and doesn't go back up again. I see this as positives you're welcome to your doom and gloom.

david

As of now the known case mortality rate in the US is 3.6%, not 2%.

What hysteria? You keep saying that everyone has overreacted and seem to be inferring that society shouldn’t be closed down. Correct me if I am wrong. The reality is that we don’t know what will happen in the places where they have re-opened society after the cases and deaths have decreased. It is too early to tell. Plus, the Spanish Flu had 3 waves.

Where have I said this is doom and gloom? All I have said is that this is a serious situation and the current closing of society is saving lives.

 

[rbbert]

Without hysteria. People die it's a fact of life but the number of dead doesn't change that 98% recovered, also according to the data collected from here and other countries the virus follows a bell curve, it peaks and then comes down and doesn't go back up again. I see this as positives you're welcome to your doom and gloom.

david

It will probably end up more like 99% recovered (although perhaps up to 10% with long-term or possibly permanent organ damage); so what's your point? Only 2-3 million dead in the US (5-8x as many as died in WWII) if we let it run its course?

The only places where the infection rate has followed a bell curve are where severe restrictions have been put in place, exactly what you are complaining about. And when the restrictions have been eased even a little, the infection (and death) rate starts to rise again.

 

[Lagonda]

Without hysteria. People die it's a fact of life but the number of dead doesn't change that 98% recovered, also according to the data collected from here and other countries the virus follows a bell curve, it peaks and then comes down and doesn't go back up again. I see this as positives you're welcome to your doom and gloom.

david

I have to agree with you David, that there is certain level of hysteria, probably healthy as to make people take it seriously in the mitigation and isolation phase.
But that disproportionate fear is going to be a problem when it’s time to try living with this virus the next year or so. Most countries, and especially the US went from ignoring it, to full blown panic in no time. It is not a apocalyptic event that will erase mankind, it’s a very contagious disease that has to be handled with proper precautions. A lot of people will die but the statistics are quite favorably for most of us.

 

[Gregadd]

I suppose the question of an acceptable death rate is a more difficult question. Letting the disease run its' course would be political suicide. Even POTUS seeking is seeking cover.

 

[rbbert]

The hysteria may be because far too many people are not taking this seriously enough. I will be calm when I stop seeing groups of people standing together talking, all closer than 3-4 feet, none wearing masks (which I saw multiple times today, in person and on television and internet video)

 

[steve williams]

So gentlemen,I decided to take the afternoon off and binge the Aaron Hernandez Documentary which I say is a must watch. I have now caught up on the entire afternoon of posts and find IMO ourselves at the same point where we were in the last thread with everyone fighting.

After closing the last thread I reluctantly left this one open with the hope that we could talk about the illness rather than the persistent bipartisan issues which became evident in the last thread

I was cautiously optimistic the past few days as I thought the discussions were fruitful. Sadly however this past afternoon has done nothing except bipartisan politics and this is something that is taboo here.

We have several doctors here who are on the frontlines fighting the disease and telling us that this is as real as it gets. These are brave people and i have learned from their posts yet their comments seem to go over peoples' heads because all you can think about is bipartisan politics

So let's look at the thread topic

I am going to agree and say "we all need to chill". As a result I am going to close this thread on a temporary basis so all of you can CTFO. No new threads on this subject will be allowed and will be closed should this happen.

So I suggest you guys watch The Aaron Hernandez Documentary on netflix until this thread reopens should it reopen..........

 

[Ron Resnick]

That's tough because I agree with a lot of it, but it's not anywhere close to a balanced analysis. That's why I suggested some additions.

I understand. A piece of legislation is probably about right if everybody walks away a little bit dissatisfied.

Otto von Bismarck: “If you like laws and sausages, you should never watch either one being made."

 

[steve williams]

good morning all

I hope that everyone remains safe and in good health.

I am going to reopen this thread with the utmost hope that we can post here as civil adults and without name calling or bipartisan politics to rear its ugly head

Should that happen again the thread will be permanently closed and the discussions on WBF will be over

I hope that we can all act as adults and address the real issue and its severity, the virus itself. We have doctors who have posted in this thread telling us their concerns as they fight this disease on a daily basis and that it is like nothing they have ever seen before. One from NZ has told us how he has had to intubate and ventilate several of his nurses, a medical resident and one of his colleagues. I felt the despair in his words, yet a member replied with a "so what" attitude about intubation. I read from another rdoctor here that being on a ventilator for more than just 24 hours carries with it a grim prognosis .

Yet yesterday all afternoon all people could focus on is who is responsible and casting aspersions it seemed to me based on their political beliefs. Politics is simply not discussed here on WBF for all of the reasons elucidated. It just seems that people are arguing from the right and from the left pointing fingers and laying blame along with name calling at other members when they don't agree.

Perhaps I am over reacting but I see this not as a fight as to the right or wrong doing but rather a fight together as one, as a human race trying to eradicate a virus by means that seem silly to some but to me, spot on necessary to try to put a lid on this thing

To argue about who left the barn door open when now the cow is out to me is moot and misses the point of why all of us are concerned. This is for the good of mankind and all people can talk about with article after article as to who is to blame as well as casting aspersions at the health care team assembled by the administration to provide guidance in eliminating this virus.

To me it seems that yesterday afternoon in this thread we just couldn't see the trees for the forest and IMO I don't care about "whodunnit and why wasn't it done sooner. I don't give a rat's ass about that now. What I do care about is that mankind bring this new and very real threat to its knees and we control it and hopefully find a way to eradicate it

There are many now arguing about the necessity of social distancing and staying home and watching the unemployment lines rise and the economy basically dead globally.

Yes the world is a place that none of us recognize now. I don't care about blame but rather knowing about this disease, because unless it is brought under control the world will forever be a different place

As a physician I can only think of the shock and awe that these health care workers see on a daily basis as they put their lives and well being on the line for us. The economy will recover and people will return to work but unless we take precautions and heed warnings you and I and our loved ones could be the next statistic.It was chilling to read that one doctor has had to intubate several of his nurses, a medical resident and one of his colleagues. That tells me hoe severe this virus is. Also one doctor here who is an ER doc commented that if one remains on a ventilator for more than 24 hours the prognosis can be grim. How did we reply....well inappropriately I would say without any finger pointing on my part

So can we post in this thread as adults who have differing views but with a common goal. Let's keep political nastiness out of this and make this thread a fruitful discussion. Let's not have to close it permanently but rather work for the common good rather than casting blame and revert back to politics

 

[Al Stewart]

Ron, I have now read and re-read your resolution. I would vote against it.

 

[Lagonda]

I suppose the question of an acceptable death rate is a more difficult question. Letting the disease run its' course would be political suicide. Even POTUS seeking is seeking cover.

The sad part is that we will get some idea of how bad it can get by following som of the poorest countries in Africa, where healthcare is almost non existent, and feeding yourself is going to be higher priority than a virus. These people will die of hunger if they stay home. Of course they don’t have the same percentage of older people in their populations as we have

 

[Lagonda]

A somewhat different approach is the one in New Zealand, they hope to totally eradicate the virus before opening up, very optimistic. As an island they have the advantage of isolation, but is it long time realistic ?

 

[spiritofmusic]

My niece just returned to UK from Australia. 2m distancing in Sydney Airport. Packed like sardines on the plane. 2m distancing at Heathrow. Had she not gotten picked up by car, she would have been packed in the Tube to Central London.

Right arm/left arm.

 

[howiebrou]

Responses to pandemics or epidemics have historically been very broad brush and led by more developed nations. Major problems arise when the "solutions" proposed pay little attention to local conditions and culture. I have always advocated the inclusion of anthropologists, for example, in dealing with cultures that one is not familiar with, otherwise one can be laughed out of the room. It reminds me a meeting with the WHO on avian influenza when a known risk pathway was the consumption of raw duck blood. The solution proposed to the Vietnamese? Just stop eating raw duck blood. Sounds simple but even the Vietnamese scientists considered the proposal unworkable due to cultural traditions. There is no one size fits all when it comes to even things like social distancing, (try it in a township in South Africa) although I do advocate a country wide approach as a bare minimum. However I would be at a loss if someone asked me to guess the response of a New Yorker vs Floridian. It must be a multi-dimensional and multi-disciplinary approach if we want to be successful and luckily, although it didn't happen this time, many of these solutions can be written out ahead of time and tweaked when you have a pandemic. There are only so many ways a disease can spread and you can cover them all in contingency plans in advance if you want to.

 

[spiritofmusic]

My niece just returned to UK from Australia. 2m distancing in Sydney Airport. Packed like sardines on the plane. 2m distancing at Heathrow. Had she not gotten picked up by car, she would have been packed in the Tube to Central London.

Right arm/left arm.

Oh, and a gentle request only to isolate at destination.

 

[howiebrou]

A somewhat different approach is the one in New Zealand, they hope to totally eradicate the virus before opening up, very optimistic. As an island they have the advantage of isolation, but is it long time realistic ?

I heard Iceland was going to test everyone. They can afford to I guess with only around 300k people. Then they have to control entry. I think it can be done with islands with small populations. But it can be difficult. As an example, Singapore just had their biggest daily jump with 287 new cases whereas we have been lucky with only 16 new cases and with a significantly larger population. It can all turn on a dime unless the measures are maintained for a period.

 

[steve williams]

a sobering statistic I just saw on the local news.....New York now has more cases than any country in the world yet the good news is that they are finally seeing a flattening of the curve

 

[steve williams]

. It can all turn on a dime unless the measures are maintained for a period.

wisest words of the day Howie. To say now that it is OK to return to work is pipe dreaming at the moment

 

[marty]

I think there's really good news and treatment that is imminent. Over the past 60 days we now have a much clearer understanding of why patients are dying from lung failure (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome). Cytokine storm is an abnormal immune response that is best summarized in the cartoon below. But better yet is that we are seeing remarkable improvements with a class of drugs called IL-6 inhibitors in some patients. Regeneron will be sharing the results on their drug Kevzara in 400 patients in about a week and my guess is that Roche is not far behind reporting on their drug Actemra. There is great optimism that the death rates will fall precipitously if these drugs are successful (which they have been shown to be in cases of cytokine storm such as occurs following CAR-T cell therapy for acute lymphocytic leukemia in kids). From today's WSJ:

 

[spiritofmusic]

We're flattening the curve too, Steve. The problem w UK is that at 9k total infections, and 1k new infections/day, and 10-14 days to flatten a curve, we could double or nearly treble our current total before we catch sight of the downslope.