This Corona Virus Mania is Just Too Much, We All Need to Chill!

[ddk]

Yes, I saw that. What accounts for that? What accounts for the relatively low number of cases and deaths in Japan? What did they do differently from other countries in the region, and when?

I have no idea Tim, some say that they locked down early but locking down hasn't always worked this effectively and it can turn around tomorrow. Looking at US you see inconclusive patterns as well. Washington state was the epicenter here and closed down relatively early and stopped the blow out but so did New York and the exact opposite happened there. Florida shut down late and there aren't any major outbreaks like NY. Apparently Texas shut down late and only have problems in some parts, I haven't looked at other states but looking at these examples I don't see how anyone can draw conclusions about lockdown and the health crisis or lack of. The experts are arguing among themselves why the models were wrong at this point for reasons why. Fact is that it's very complicated situation, everything's still new and we're learning with time but fortunately for all at this point the we're much better off than the predictions.

david

 

[bonzo75]

On Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinio...n-commentary/japan-still-coronavirus-outlier/

 

[ddk]

On Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinio...n-commentary/japan-still-coronavirus-outlier/

Yes, Japan is a great argument against the validity of shut downs and it's not just in Tokyo that they didn't shut down businesses but also in the rest of the country. As far as I know even schools opened up but with some social distancing guidelines.

david

 

[hogen]

I'm with you Peter, don't see a unified policy as a good thing on so many different levels. I'm not advocating carelessness but there's got be a better compromise that total shutdown. There's no reason that it has to be all or nothing, I'm hopeful we'll have the tests and see where we really are around the country instead of this crazy dooms day scenario that they're playing out in the media daily.

david

I very strongly agree David. The media coverage seems quite unbalanced to me. There has to be found a middle ground in this.

 

[pjwd]

Yes, Japan is a great argument against the validity of shut downs and it's not just in Tokyo that they didn't shut down businesses but also in the rest of the country. As far as I know even schools opened up but with some social distancing guidelines.

david

Yes David - it is interesting , the 3 slowest growth rates from the outset on this chart are all "epidemic hardened " countries so perhaps they have greater discipline with infection control measures that allow activities to continue somewhat with perhaps a well controlled spread of infections that will not overload the health system .
It seems the west has not been able to do this without a shut down.
They certainly are slopes to watch

Phil

 

[Tango]

In my opinion, the total Country lock down should be enforced preventing possible new infection from coming in from abroad. All US citizens coming back in must be under 14 days strict quarantine. Look at this picture of Japanese from abroad coming back into Japan. They have to be quarantined for 14 days at the airport.



Then you manage from within. US is a huge country many States are bigger than many countries. The total lock down of each State should also be enforced to prohibit people from migrating between States. This way you contain the virus within the area. You could keep locking down into smaller circles so that people, business, life in circles without infection can go on more normally. On contrary, the circle with infection must contain the virus to stay within the circle. Business and life will be disrupted only within that circle. People in infected circle must also be so damn discipline. Economy, business, life should go on normally if your circle or State or City is virus free. You should still be able to go hang out at Starbuck or tongue kissing a stranger if you want to. But you need to keep the circle free of virus by not introducing it to your circle. You have no freedom to go out side the circle. The only way to do that is to prohibit migration crossing circles. Forget the Land of the Free concept for a period of time at least till the virus out side your circle is gone. All these should be done at the very early stage before shit hit the fan. Unfortunately at that stage most people was thinking it was just a flu.

 

[bonzo75]

In my opinion, the total Country lock down should be enforced preventing possible new infection from coming in from abroad. All US citizens coming back in must be under 14 days strict quarantine. Look at this picture of Japanese from abroad coming back into Japan. They have to be quarantined for 14 days at the airport.

View attachment 63852

Then you manage from within. US is a huge country many States are bigger than many countries. The total lock down of each State should also be enforced to prohibit people from migrating between States. This way you contain the virus within the area. You could keep locking down into smaller circles so that people, business, life in circles without infection can go on more normally. On contrary, the circle with infection must contain the virus to stay within the circle. Business and life will be disrupted only within that circle. People in infected circle must also be so damn discipline. Economy, business, life should go on normally if your circle or State or City is virus free. You should still be able to go hang out at Starbuck or tongue kissing a stranger if you want to. But you need to keep the circle free of virus by not introducing it to your circle. You have no freedom to go out side the circle. The only way to do that is to prohibit migration crossing circles. Forget the Land of the Free concept for a period of time at least till the virus out side your circle is gone. All these should be done at the very early stage before shit hit the fan. Unfortunately at that stage most people was thinking it was just a flu.

These US guys talk about their first two constitutional rights more than an audiophile talks about his own system. They believe in it more than the audiophile believes in his own system, too. No way are they going to forget it.

 

[Lagonda]

The USA is a populous country, so of course we have a high absolute number of infections and deaths. The fatality rate per million people is lower in the USA than in several Western European countries, including in the Netherlands. This is definitely not the impression European news sources indicate.

I watch official news channels from Sweden, Germany and Denmark every day. I have not seen reports of piles of bodies in the streets in America, there has been some focus on the rising unemployment numbers and the impact on some of the poorest people. The worst info about American conditions come from my friends in Miami, where several have lost family members already. People are also standing in long lines for hard copy application forms for welfare, because the digital system is inadequate, and long lines at food banks have been shared on facebook ..

 

[the sound of Tao]

As time moves forward I can’t really see any real argument other than maximising on the surviving of people now and looking to the cost later. In the great wars they didn’t just sit back and budget, they fought and tackled the now. Some level of faith needs to override the fears and we just have to protect people, our people... and at this point also our health workers.

I hope all countries across the globe will survive this. Over here the next six months of isolated society is fully costed and budgeted for and while I am sure we’ll all be paying for this for some time to come everyone seems to accept this here as long as it ensures the health and future of our people. We are all in this together is the battle cry of the year of Covid.

We must just see this as an extraordinary investment in society. We need to remember that economy sits within society and not the other way around. You have to protect society to have a well economy.

I reckon there are a lot of people winding everyone up about the worst economic outcomes but our governments have massive resources and if the people of both World War 1 and World War 2 could afford those many years of madness then surely we can stick it out hopefully for much, much less time with much, much less carnage and much, much less associated damage to infrastructure. There are greedy souls out there in power who simply don’t want to take a hit in this and also don’t care how many people die to ensure this. I believe this absolutely. We will be judged on our faith and in our values. This is a test of who we are as a species.

 

[spiritofmusic]

Graham, tell that to Italy.
Close to zero "growth" for twenty straight years since adoption of €.
On course for 12% GDP contraction, compared to France's c.7%.

Just how do they survive? EU finance ministers AGAIN fudged issue of Corona Bonds at German preferential rates.

 

[Al M.]

With all respect, Al, is that an expert opinion? It sounds very broad. Narrowed to the time of this pandemic, I see conflicting views from experts and don't know which to believe.

Of course there will always be disagreement about details between experts, and that is a good thing since it shows that critical thinking and constant reevaluation is active. But you have to look at the general broad direction into which expert opinion points. On the other hand, you can always find outlier opinions that support your contrarian views, but that does not mean they should be given equal credence.

There is always the temptation of false equivalence, and it is routinely deployed by contrarians to powerful effect. It is like the dispute between evolution and so-called biological "Intelligent Design", where false equivalence is invoked as "you have to listen to both sides" and "the dispute is far from settled". Well, that's nonsense. The dispute is firmly settled by science in favor of evolution -- and I say this as a person who in terms of worldview might be sympathetic to biological intelligent design myself, if the evidence would not be as strong as it is. Evolution is a fact, both on the micro and the macro scale, only details of how it occurred and still occurs remain constantly evaluated and are hotly disputed among scientists, which is a normal part of scientific process and progress.

False equivalence is also invoked when it comes to opposing views on that hot button scientific issue with huge societal implications and that begins with a "c" (you know what I mean; not allowed to discuss the topic here). The broad direction of the issue has been settled a long time ago, and if anything, scientific models are routinely upended by a reality that is even more grim than anticipated. Yet as I said, you can always find support for contrarian views when you look for it. The internet is just fingertips away.

But the absurdity of false equivalence is obvious when it comes to the "dispute" whether the Earth is round or if it is flat, and you would say, but "there are opinions on both sides". Sure there are, but...

Things are often deliberately portrayed as if there is "confusion" around an issue when there really is not.

 

[the sound of Tao]

Graham, tell that to Italy.
Close to zero "growth" for twenty straight years since adoption of €.
On course for 12% GDP contraction, compared to France's c.7%.

Just how do they survive? EU finance ministers AGAIN fudged issue of Corona Bonds at German preferential rates.

Not saying there won’t be considerable associated pain Marc but it seems now there are as many economic experts out there on social media as there are new health experts with their special topic Covid-19.

Reality is it’s just a choice. Every nation must make their own choice in good conscience.

 

[tima]

Any authority not specifically designated to the federal government in the US Constitution is left to the states. Each state makes its own choices wrt lockdown and individual cities and towns can make choices for themselves.

Interstate commerce is under federal control and currently continues. There is plenty of food in the US but it comes from different parts of the country. It simply would not work to cut interstate commerce. There are some states with pandemic related controls about people movement. For example, Florida asked people fleeing the New York City area to quarantine when arriving.

 

[andromedaaudio]

In holland and belgium you dont need to wear a mouth mask , its strictly voluntary
Its only a nescessity for health care workers

 

[tima]

Of course there will always be disagreement about details between experts, and that is a good thing since it shows that critical thinking and constant reevaluation is active. But you have to look at the general broad direction into which expert opinion points. On the other hand, you can always find outlier opinions that support your contrarian views, but that does not mean they should be given equal credence.

There is always the temptation of false equivalence, and it is routinely deployed by contrarians to powerful effect. It is like the dispute between evolution and so-called biological "Intelligent Design", where false equivalence is invoked as "you have to listen to both sides" and "the dispute is far from settled". Well, that's nonsense. The dispute is firmly settled by science in favor of evolution -- and I say this as a person who in terms of worldview might be sympathetic to biological intelligent design myself, if the evidence would not be as strong as it is. Evolution is a fact, both on the micro and the macro scale, only details of how it occurred and still occurs remain constantly evaluated and are hotly disputed among scientists, which is a normal part of scientific process and progress.

False equivalence is also invoked when it comes to opposing views on that hot button scientific issue with huge societal implications and that begins with a "c" (you know what I mean; not allowed to discuss the topic here). The broad direction of the issue has been settled a long time ago, and if anything, scientific models are routinely upended by a reality that is even more grim than anticipated. Yet as I said, you can always find support for contrarian views when you look for it. The internet is just fingertips away.

But the absurdity of false equivalence is obvious when it comes to the "dispute" whether the Earth is round or if it is flat, and you would say, but "there are opinions on both sides". Sure there are, but...

Things are often deliberately portrayed as if there is "confusion" around an issue when there really is not.

You said the lack of trust in science and experts is the downfall of society.

I was thinking of different opinions I hear about using HCQ+ as a virus treatment. Some experts say they have great success with it. Some experts say don't use it because it has not had enough testing. It's easy be sceptical, but that can have the price of inaction. The dispute is far from settled.

I do understand your position. I don't think the argument about 'false equivalence' is a very good argument because it presumes itself - it begs the question. Scientific method is a belief system. I think a better case is made from efficacy and pragmatics but this thread may not be the place for that debate.

 

[rbbert]

According to this chart death rate halved after the peak around March 20th and remains that way two and a half weeks later, which graph are you looking at? Plateau doesn't mean zero deaths.

On Apr 3 there were 1049 cases; on Apr 9 there were 2108, i.e., more than doubling in 6 days. That is NOT a plateau.

 

[rbbert]

Too many posters here apparently think this situation is like their audiophile pursuits, where you decide what you like and then pursue that. Unfortunately nature doesn't work that way; it is pretty much oblivious to human desires, although equally unfortunately not to human behavior.

 

[Al M.]

Too many posters here apparently think this situation is like their audiophile pursuits, where you decide what you like and then pursue that. Unfortunately nature doesn't work that way; it is pretty much oblivious to human desires, although equally unfortunately not to human behavior.

Well put. Or as Dr. Fauci says: "We don't make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline". The virus simply doesn't care about human wishful thinking.

 

[Al M.]

Interstate commerce is under federal control and currently continues. There is plenty of food in the US but it comes from different parts of the country. It simply would not work to cut interstate commerce. There are some states with pandemic related controls about people movement. For example, Florida asked people fleeing the New York City area to quarantine when arriving.

Agreed, you cannot "lock down" individual states from one another. As for quarantining, this may work on an individual level, but not on a massive public level. Forced quarantines are always breached, which is why social distancing is so much more efficient, as the simulations here show:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

This also shows why travel bans don't work, especially when their enforcement has been so lax and has been full of loopholes. A travel ban may buy you one, at the most two, weeks time, but the end result will be the same.

 

[bonzo75]

Too many posters here apparently think this situation is like their audiophile pursuits, where you decide what you like and then pursue that. Unfortunately nature doesn't work that way; it is pretty much oblivious to human desires, although equally unfortunately not to human behavior.

Due to the the audio hobby people are conditioned to ignoring science and observations