What's going on with the US stock market lately?

[KeithR]

Targeted tariffs and quotas put in place during the Reagan and Bush terms are vastly different from a general "trade war."

while i agree sparring on multiple fronts is silly, i find targeted tariffs just as bad if not worse.

Back to the market, it didn't start its downturn on January 25 because of tariffs (or even the first month). its an excuse. looking underneath the market, its weak - they can only take the same 10 stocks every day for so long. the dow and s&p have done nothing all year while the Nazzie is at all time highs. the only thing rallying this year is tech and small caps. needs new leadership for the next leg up.

 

[Folsom]

The whole thing has been energized because of 2008, but that is going to slow down since you can only squeeze so much water from the liquidation sponge.

Tariffs are the result of people purchasing themselves into a corner. I haven't seen any in the list that I think would really improve US wages, and consequently pump the economy. Maybe I'm wrong. But the types of things I imagine really having an influence would be as an example (effectively) banning cabinets from overseas, from any major manufacturer that isn't a specialized custom place making one-off type stuff. The act alone would revive some wood industry and make a lot of skilled jobs. The implication of that example run deep all the way to reducing forest fires. Instead we're trying to bring back capacitor manufacturing in the US, because hardly anyone assembles here? Maybe I should read the list again, or some of it anyways...

 

[Priaptor]

The whole thing has been energized because of 2008, but that is going to slow down since you can only squeeze so much water from the liquidation sponge.

Tariffs are the result of people purchasing themselves into a corner. I haven't seen any in the list that I think would really improve US wages, and consequently pump the economy. Maybe I'm wrong. But the types of things I imagine really having an influence would be as an example (effectively) banning cabinets from overseas, from any major manufacturer that isn't a specialized custom place making one-off type stuff. The act alone would revive some wood industry and make a lot of skilled jobs. The implication of that example run deep all the way to reducing forest fires. Instead we're trying to bring back capacitor manufacturing in the US, because hardly anyone assembles here? Maybe I should read the list again, or some of it anyways...

I agree with your philosophy. Think about the effect on the markets the “scare of a trade war” from tarriffs of bringing. 20-30 billion in Chinese tariffs has cost the markets more than a trillion. The psychology behind it is of course the driver the reality quite different.

Truth is we haven’t had a real blow off in some time and many people today just think they can’t “lose” either in housing or the stock market. Amazing that even older people (like myself) who have been through this before become complacent.

Whatever the “reason” people will give in retrospect, a blowoff is long overdo. Of course if you try to time it, as many do, statistically you will get your hide burned. I admit to knowing my limitations and don’t time.

 

[Priaptor]

EU emission standards are based on a whole different public transportation equation than the US. in Europe you have this huge percentage of older small vehicles which are very dirty with lots of diesels. the saving grace is most cities have a minor level of car commuting. and then you have the whole socialist 'owned by the government' car manufacturers blurring the lines and the wolf watching the henhouse. so EU standards are a bit 'fluid'.

I know there are exceptions to this 'wink and nod' situation, and some European countries are very car emission conscious. but most are not.

in the US we live in a mostly commute by car culture. larger vehicles and more intertwined into daily life. and our government and even private citizenry are vigilant and even militant about car emissions.

apples and oranges. for good reasons......and I can't see US ever going Europe's way. more likely the other way around, if only because access to the US car market might require the European Governments to go that way by lawsuit.

Mike

As you poignantly point out America’s disparate geography on multiple fronts creates the biggest difference from our European counterparts on multiple fronts, including healthcare.

 

[Priaptor]

We are screwed, that's where we are. I don't see any long-term gain from this. It will take some time, but the damage done will come to roost. The next time we need something like sanctions from another friendly country, they will hang up the phone. The economy will sputter and slide into recession because of these policies.

Pulling out of TPP was stupid. Pulling out of the Iran Nuclear deal was stupid. Siding with Putin and Israel is stupid. Denying Climate change and pulling out of the Paris accord is stupid. Asking the G7 to include Russia is stupid. Turning our backs on our allies is stupid.

China's cheap products have improved US lifestyles for a decade. It certainly isn't because of increasing wages. We should come down hard on Chinese IP theft, but tariffs are not the way to do this. Tariffs are just stupid.

To be clear, America's enemies are: Russia, Iran, North Korea and a host of terrorist organizations, not Canada, not Mexico, not Australia, not the EU and not China. China is not interfering in our elections. China is not threatening the US. China has not invaded any other countries, yet. Economics is more important to them still than being the dominant world power. That may change though. We have a lot of leverage over them even without tariffs.

I don’t think I ever disagreed with anyone as much as I disagree with your commentary. Lol.

Not the place to debate your commentary as it is just your opinion but I will answer by disagreeing with everyone of your assumptions with my own.

From my perch The States have been victimized economically by globalists and socialists/communists and while those of us with nice portfolios are happy there is a reason why wages have been stagnant, wealth disparity higher than ever (most ever under Obama) and we have become an ever increasing welfare state.

 

[jeff1225]

Gentlemen: Please stick to the stock market and to the economics, and stay away from the politics.

Ron,
I suggest you delete this thread if you want us to stay away from politics. We are debating the trade policies of a government that is Nationalist, anti-globalist and anti-science. Economics, and the economics of the stock market, is tied to the so called economic principles of Nationalist government currently in power.

You can't discuss the economics of the USA without discussing politics.

 

[Priaptor]

Ron,
I suggest you delete this thread if you want us to stay away from politics. We are debating the trade policies of a government that is Nationalist, anti-globalist and anti-science. Economics, and the economics of the stock market, is tied to the so called economic principles of Nationalist government currently in power.

You can't discuss the economics of the USA without discussing politics.

Well it is clear that YOU are incapable based on your description of this administration.

LMAO.

But I do agree it is impossible to stay away from politics when discussing this.

 

[jeff1225]

I don’t think I ever disagreed with anyone as much as I disagree with your commentary. Lol.

Not the place to debate your commentary as it is just your opinion but I will answer by disagreeing with everyone of your assumptions with my own.

From my perch The States have been victimized economically by globalists and socialists/communists and while those of us with nice portfolios are happy there is a reason why wages have been stagnant, wealth disparity higher than ever (most ever under Obama) and we have become an ever increasing welfare state.

Wages are stagnant across all developing countries, including Germany. This is not because of any of the reasons you gave (globalism, socialism, immigration, the UN, vaccines, atheism, George Soros, or any other boogieman) but because of the rapid rise of automation and the internet of things. The internet of things, the broad use of AI and advancements in robotics is a problem for the human worker that must be addressed.

 

[Priaptor]

Wages are stagnant across all developing countries, including Germany. This is not because of any of the reasons you gave (globalism, socialism, immigration, the UN, vaccines, atheism, George Soros, or any other boogieman) but because of the rapid rise of automation and the internet of things. The internet of things, the broad use of AI and advancements in robotics is a problem for the human worker that must be addressed.

LMAO

You are tagging multiple “reasons” to me that I never said or implied no matter how much you would like. I understand that is how you people operate. Ends justifies the means.

For the sake of Ron and allowing the petulant, baseless and infantile discourse to continue bashing Trump and his “edicts” while people on this thread have been benefiting extraordinarily well from those “edicts” you lefties hate which have allowed you guys (and me) to buy all the absurdly priced audiophile goodies we all brag about I will cease to participate and allow you guys to continue and then Ron can allow this thread to continue.

LMAO once again.
Enjoy.

 

[Folsom]

Wages are stagnant across all developing countries, including Germany. This is not because of any of the reasons you gave (globalism, socialism, immigration, the UN, vaccines, atheism, George Soros, or any other boogieman) but because of the rapid rise of automation and the internet of things. The internet of things, the broad use of AI and advancements in robotics is a problem for the human worker that must be addressed.

Ya... no.

While there is no boogieman, the economics are pretty clear.

I am not sure how to avoid politics, but I would appreciate keeping it light. There is no reason to try to pursuade others heavily, especially as it drivels off into conjecture and anecdotes.

 

[NorthStar]

No way, we're talking the US stock market.
The NASDAQ...tech/science stocks are hot, and the overall US economy is pretty good. There is no drama, and everything, almost, is smoothly sailing this side of the Dow Jones IA and SP500 Futures/Index.

The trends that influence the US stock market are universal; monetary system of world countries, commodities, trades, natural disasters, employment level, the value of the US dollar (local currency), the interest rates, the investors, the banks and brokerage firms, the stock brokers shaking, the buy and sell frenzy, the big players, the decision makers, the corporate scandals, the unions, the rise in tariffs. This is all economics, related to financial wisdom.

Without a system to invest in the US economy through the stock market, where would we be?

If I buy a hi-fi stereo system in Canada I pay taxes (except in Alberta), if I buy in the US I pay duties and shipping charges, and perhaps other fees. If those expenses get higher due to the cost of dealing with countries that need financial help I'll buy shoes too for them to wear. They are my friends and they can count on me anytime.

Don't expect from your stock dealers to do for you what you can do and stock yourself in your own backyard; autonomy and a garden of roses.

Insider information and connections ...

 

[opus112]

To be clear, America's enemies are: Russia, Iran, North Korea and a host of terrorist organizations...<snip>

Utter nonsense, America's its own worst enemy. Put it another way, Pogo has it : 'We've seen the enemy, and he is us'.

 

[NorthStar]

Well, the economy wasn't so good in North Korea with all their nuke testing.
If they get rid of them all the sanctions will be lifted and their population breathing better. The US stock market should benefit, and so the world's population.

And the Russians are no angels on Facebook and sports and bitcoin and computer's hackers. They love cheating, lying and hiding...just like a bunch of kids playing in the snow throwing balls.
They need to get their hack together and act civilised. Then their economy will benefit from sanctions being lifted by the international committee , and so the US stock market benefits for all American citizens.

 

[jeff1225]

Ya... no.

While there is no boogieman, the economics are pretty clear.

I am not sure how to avoid politics, but I would appreciate keeping it light. There is no reason to try to pursuade others heavily, especially as it drivels off into conjecture and anecdotes.

"Ya...no" nice counter argument. I'd love to see your economics, I get mine from the Economist.

A few data points:

- Between 1993 and 2014, the American car industry more than doubled its productivity, but lost 28% of its workforce.
-By 2025, Bain forecasts that American firms will spend $8T on automation.
- According to Oxford University, 47% of the jobs in the USA will be automatized by 2030

So...whatcha got Folsom?

 

[opus112]

"Ya...no" nice counter argument. I'd love to see your economics, I get mine from the Economist.

Then you're imbibing fairly neat propaganda. Try here : http://www.shadowstats.com/

Note to get the full Monty, you'll need to pay. Accurate analysis doesn't in general come for free.

 

[NorthStar]

The Wall Street journal informs me on the state of current business affairs.
In Canada, the Globe & Mail.

 

[KeithR]

Ron,
I suggest you delete this thread if you want us to stay away from politics. We are debating the trade policies of a government that is Nationalist, anti-globalist and anti-science. Economics, and the economics of the stock market, is tied to the so called economic principles of Nationalist government currently in power.

I disagree and have never seen an IPS created with politics as an input. If you aren’t invested in stocks because of who is in the White House, that’s your prerogative but is not a market-based one.

So this thread is fine imo.

 

[jeff1225]

Then you're imbibing fairly neat propaganda. Try here : http://www.shadowstats.com/

Note to get the full Monty, you'll need to pay. Accurate analysis doesn't in general come for free.

The Economist is not propaganda, its the free press.

Based on your location, you'll need a VPN to get it past the censors. I suggest you read it....

 

[opus112]

The Economist is not propaganda, its the free press.

LMAO. Follow the money.

 

[jeff1225]

I disagree and have never seen an IPS created with politics as an input. If you aren’t invested in stocks because of who is in the White House, that’s your prerogative but is not a market-based one.

So this thread is fine imo.

When you have a president who can damage a company with a tweet, or a tariff or two, you're an idiot if it doesn't influence your investing. Comical.