neighbor just had a "drive-by" birthday party... fleets of cars honking with ballons.
This Corona Virus Mania is Just Too Much, We All Need to Chill!
- Thread starter ddk
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This discussion about the corona virus epidemic revolves around history of past pandemics and epidemiology of this one, with predictions, opinions and recommendations based on those. You have repeatedly demonstrated that you have little knowledge or expertise in either of those areas, yet you continue to post opinions that you expect to be taken seriously. I am trying to avoid personal attacks, but your posting style make it hard to avoid, since in pointing out the factual errors in your posts I am also unavoidably criticizing you. The solution to this would be for you to stop posting inaccurate and unverifiable "data", and your inaccurate interpretations of reliable data. Unfortunately, I don't expect this to occur.
Despite that, HK is now trying to deal with a huge resurgence of new cases after an apparent lull in the virus activity
The mortality rate probably won't change (might even decrease), but the number of deaths certainly will increase, also probably exponentially. Any mathematician or statistician will confirm for you that the new cases in Singapore are rising exponentially, not linearly
Yes, we don't want a police and surveillance state. Strict digital disease tracing by phone app like they try to do in some Asian countries will not be implementable here, nor should it. We need to find other solutions for reopening the economy that are workable, even though that will be incredibly hard and inevitably fraught with mistakes and setbacks.
Steve williams
Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
From what I have read especially in the post yesterday by marty, the use of IL-6 inhibitors seem to be the most promising thing that will show up imminently. There seem to be many anecdotal stories of patients improving after everything else has failed
jaioviera posted yesterday that he has a friend who got worse with Plaquenil and Z-Pack and required intubation until he was given an IL-6 inhibitor and was improving within hours, enough to be extubated BUT he remains on renal dialysis.
I was speaking to my son in law this morning who is a very busy anesthesiologist in the SF Bay area. He enlightened me about several things. First he has used IL-6 inhibitors with good results and he states that these will be showing up in the next few months however the drugs were only made available in limited amounts for purposes of compassionate use. He did tell me the supply ran out almost immediately and over to get it now you have to correspond with the company on a case by case basis and if they make it available it is often too late
He also said that a contraindication is if the patient's serum creatinine is elevated which would suggest renal failure. This takes me back to wondering about jaoviera's friend who obviously has renal failure
My son in law also made the point that the most serious time when the virus is disseminated is at the time of intubation as the fomites are released into the air. As a result unless the OR has negative pressure room ventilation they will not do an intubation under those circumstances due to the high risk of them acquiring the virus. In the ICU the circulation is negative pressure and if a patient with covid requires emergency surgery the intubation is done in the ICU in a hazmat outfit and is then transported to the OR for surgery.
From what I have read vaccines may never prove to be the answer however the feeling is that although a vaccine may not prevent one from getting covid-19 in the future it will hopefully prevent deaths by mitigating development of ARDS.
Presently if one is intubated and on a ventilator for more than 24 hours the death rate is significant.
So the way I see it, the virus is never going to be vanquished in the foreseeable future so by doing what we are doing however by flattening the curve and reducing the number of cases, the hope is that in a few months drugs will be available to minimize the severity of ARDS and organ failure such that there will be far fewer deaths
jaioviera posted yesterday that he has a friend who got worse with Plaquenil and Z-Pack and required intubation until he was given an IL-6 inhibitor and was improving within hours, enough to be extubated BUT he remains on renal dialysis.
I was speaking to my son in law this morning who is a very busy anesthesiologist in the SF Bay area. He enlightened me about several things. First he has used IL-6 inhibitors with good results and he states that these will be showing up in the next few months however the drugs were only made available in limited amounts for purposes of compassionate use. He did tell me the supply ran out almost immediately and over to get it now you have to correspond with the company on a case by case basis and if they make it available it is often too late
He also said that a contraindication is if the patient's serum creatinine is elevated which would suggest renal failure. This takes me back to wondering about jaoviera's friend who obviously has renal failure
My son in law also made the point that the most serious time when the virus is disseminated is at the time of intubation as the fomites are released into the air. As a result unless the OR has negative pressure room ventilation they will not do an intubation under those circumstances due to the high risk of them acquiring the virus. In the ICU the circulation is negative pressure and if a patient with covid requires emergency surgery the intubation is done in the ICU in a hazmat outfit and is then transported to the OR for surgery.
From what I have read vaccines may never prove to be the answer however the feeling is that although a vaccine may not prevent one from getting covid-19 in the future it will hopefully prevent deaths by mitigating development of ARDS.
Presently if one is intubated and on a ventilator for more than 24 hours the death rate is significant.
So the way I see it, the virus is never going to be vanquished in the foreseeable future so by doing what we are doing however by flattening the curve and reducing the number of cases, the hope is that in a few months drugs will be available to minimize the severity of ARDS and organ failure such that there will be far fewer deaths
Steve williams
Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
Totally agree Mike. The world as we know it will be forever changed. In the USA it was rare to ever see anyone out in public wearing a mask. Those who did were almost always Asian. There is now a new norm and I expect this to be "the way it is" going forward.
I also feel that once the country and economy is opened there won't be a reduction in social distancing nor will people stop wearing masks. In fact I still expect may people to remain indoors under self quarantine for ongoing periods
Nice report Steve, we are hearing the same here...stay safe!
Kind Regards,
Alan
The known case death rate in the US has increased from 2.1% to 3.8% in the period 3/31 to 4/10. My guess is that that has to do with people who have been on ventilators for an extended period of time ultimately dying. The actual death rate is clearly lower since there are unreported cases but no one knows what that number is. There have been a lot of estimates of the percent of cases which are asymptomatic but none of those estimates are accurate. They are mostly from the cruise ship testing but those who tested positive were not tracked to see if they exhibited symptoms afterwards. Only widespread anti-body testing will give us a sense of the true infection rate. Who knows if that will ever happen. My guess is no.
Unfortunately the kidneys are another organ that produces ACE-2 (kidneys have concentrations of ACE/ACE-2, just like the cardio-pulmonary area - no surprise with the intimate connection of kidneys and blood pressure). There's been some fear about migration of virus to these other sites (including testes as well). I don't know if that's what is happening, but it isn't easy to rule out. It would be nice if ACE-2 could be administered (this has been done in studies) but it's probably 1,000,000x harder to get (make?) than IL-6 inhibitors.
That's pretty brutal that the IL-6 inhibitors aren't being made in big quantities.
Now you lecture me and say that I shouldn't post on my own thread anymore while blaming me for you being an ass in the same breath, typical! We're in a subsection of an audio forum not a Scientific Medical one nor was OP about a scientific diagnosis of the corona viruses and their world history. Read the OP! Since you claim to know so much and are full of yourself why haven't you enlightened everyone with your wisdom and knowledge?
You love to run your mouth, claiming my linked sites for statistics aren't credible doesn't cut it. Show us your credible sites with the wildly differing statistics instead of this ridiculous and childish personal crap!
david
Steve williams
Site Founder, Site Owner, Administrator
Unfortunately the kidneys are another organ that produces ACE-2 (kidneys have concentrations of ACE/ACE-2, just like the cardio-pulmonary area - no surprise with the intimate connection of kidneys and blood pressure). There's been some fear about migration of virus to these other sites (including testes as well). I don't know if that's what is happening, but it isn't easy to rule out. It would be nice if ACE-2 could be administered (this has been done in studies) but it's probably 1,000,000x harder to get (make?) than IL-6 inhibitors.
That's pretty brutal that the IL-6 inhibitors aren't being made in big quantities.
My son in law told me that the FDA is fast tracking these drugs
as far as renal failure I am no expert so what I say is not gospel. From what I am reading the renal failure is caused by micro thromboses in the kidneys rather than from only ACE-2 but in all likelihood it remains as yet poorly understood
Bottom line is simple. It isn't the virus that is going to kill you but rather the comorbidities such as ARDS and organ failure (heart, lungs, kidneys) as a result of the cytokine storm
We are not out of the woods and yes we only had about 150 cases in total a few weeks ago but then people started coming back from Europe and the US and our infected cases went up. Now we are doing okay with only 11 new cases today with 10 of those 11 having travel history. If it was up to me I would shut the border and we would be at 0 in no time.
A little exaggerated Mike but some truths there. Many people would wear masks if they were sick but normally people would not. However after we heard about Wuhan then most of us masked up and we've kept it like that up to today. Most won't wear it in their own house unless someone's sick. I agree this little cultural tradition has contributed to a low case count which is why I have been urging people to do the same.
From a doctor friend regarding mortality percentages.
https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/
"the interestring part besides the 15% infected rate and case fatality rate of 0.37%
The 15 percent figure from Gangelt is interesting because it matches two previous studies. Firstly, there was the accidental experiment of the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, which inadvertently became a floating laboratory when a passenger showing symptoms of COVID-19 boarded on January 20 and remained in the ship, spreading the virus, for five days. The ship was eventually quarantined on February 3 and all its 3,711 passengers tested for the virus. It turned out the 634 of them — 17 percent — had been infected, many of them without symptoms. The mortality rate on the vessel was 1.2 percent — although, inevitably being a cruise ship, it was a relatively elderly cohort.
We gained another insight into SARS-CoV-2 from a Chinese study into 391 cases of COVID-19 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. In this case, scientists tested everyone who shared a household with people who were found to be suffering from the disease. It turned out 15 percent of this group had gone on to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 themselves. Again, many showed no symptoms.
Obviously these are all small-scale studies and none of them are deliberate experiments to see how far SARS-CoV-2 will spread if it is allowed to ‘rip through’ a population. But they do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?"
david
https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/
"the interestring part besides the 15% infected rate and case fatality rate of 0.37%
The 15 percent figure from Gangelt is interesting because it matches two previous studies. Firstly, there was the accidental experiment of the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, which inadvertently became a floating laboratory when a passenger showing symptoms of COVID-19 boarded on January 20 and remained in the ship, spreading the virus, for five days. The ship was eventually quarantined on February 3 and all its 3,711 passengers tested for the virus. It turned out the 634 of them — 17 percent — had been infected, many of them without symptoms. The mortality rate on the vessel was 1.2 percent — although, inevitably being a cruise ship, it was a relatively elderly cohort.
We gained another insight into SARS-CoV-2 from a Chinese study into 391 cases of COVID-19 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. In this case, scientists tested everyone who shared a household with people who were found to be suffering from the disease. It turned out 15 percent of this group had gone on to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 themselves. Again, many showed no symptoms.
Obviously these are all small-scale studies and none of them are deliberate experiments to see how far SARS-CoV-2 will spread if it is allowed to ‘rip through’ a population. But they do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?"
david
There appears to be a somewhat different interpretation of the data:
https://www.technologyreview.com/20...ow-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/
To me, the most interesting chart is the number of known cases since the 100th case. That chart likely indicates that other countries were quicker to mandate restrictions which flattened their curve. The US curve is by far the steepest. I am sure that the density of the US population in certain areas have cause the number of cases to increase to quickly. The one country that could be the next "issue" is Japan. Their cases seem to be increasing quickly.
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